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Using ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) as a guide, Mississippi State has an 87.4 percent chance to beat South Alabama on Saturday.
MISSISSIPPI STATE TO RELY ON HIGH-POWERED OFFENSE AGAINST JAGUARS
Mississippi State will be a heavy favorite when it takes its show on the road for the first time in 2014 for a matchup with South Alabama in Mobile on Saturday. South Alabama was 4-2 at home last season, while Mississippi State was just 1-3 on the road. However only one of those games was against an unranked opponent (Arkansas), and MSU won that game 24-17.
The Bulldogs were far from impressive on the road last season, and South Alabama didn’t light the world on fire with its performances at home either, dropping games to Southern Utah and Arkansas State on its home field in 2013.
The Bulldogs’ high win probability likely stems from its success on offense this season. Mississippi State has scored 14 touchdowns in two games, ranking 20th out of 127 FBS schools in total offense and 13th in the country in scoring offense at 48 points per game. South Alabama has played just one game this season, holding Kent State to only 13 points in a 10-point Jaguars’ victory, but USA ranked 51st in total defense a season ago and 53rd in scoring defense.
These two teams played in 2012, and Mississippi State won that game 30-10 in Starkville. The Bulldogs haven’t lost to a team from outside the power conferences since a loss to the Houston Cougars in 2009. Likewise, South Alabama has not beaten a team from a power conference in that span, which could be another reason ESPN feels so confident about Mississippi State’s chances on Saturday.
A former newspaper reporter who has roamed the southeastern United States for years covering football and eating way too many barbecue ribs, if there is such a thing.
