Georgia and Ole Miss are set to square off in the Sugar Bowl on Thursday night in New Orleans.
This SEC showdown will wrap up quarterfinal action for this year’s College Football Playoff. The winner will advance to the semifinal round against Miami on Jan. 8.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia odds
Here’s a look at the current betting markets for this game, per the latest college football betting lines:
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a wager on this game:
Ole Miss football news
- Ole Miss squashed Tulane 41-10 in Oxford in order to qualify for a rematch against Georgia on New Year’s Day.
- When the Rebels and Bulldogs met in Athens earlier this season, Ole Miss had a 35-26 lead entering the fourth quarter. Ole Miss scored a touchdown on each of its first 5 possessions.
- However, Ole Miss’s final 3 drives of the game totaled 13 yards on 8 plays. The Bulldogs won the fourth quarter 17-0.
- The absence of Lane Kiffin will no doubt loom large in this game. However, Charlie Weis Jr. did well calling plays against Tulane in the first round. The Rebels averaged 7.3 yards per play in the win over the Green Wave.
- It should be noted that a large portion of Ole Miss’s coaching staff will depart for LSU after the Rebels’ season ends. Weis, tight ends coach Joe Cox, wide receivers coach George McDonald, running backs coach Kevin Smith, inside receivers coach Sawyer Jordan and offensive line coach Eric Wolford are among the staffers who will work for Kiffin in Baton Rouge next season. It’s certainly worth questioning how effective those coaches will be while splitting time between jobs.
- Taken at face value, the Ole Miss offense was elite this season. Particularly through the air. Trinidad Chambliss led the Rebels to the No. 11 EPA-per-play passing offense in the country this season, per Game on Paper.
- Ole Miss has one of the most productive running backs in the country in Kewan Lacy, who rushed for 1,366 yards and 21 touchdowns this year. However, the advanced stats aren’t as impressed with Lacy’s efficiency. Ole Miss is in the 61st percentile for EPA-per-rush — good, but not great.
- The Ole Miss defense was very good against the pass this season but dreadful against the run. Per Game on Paper, the Rebels are in the 1st percentile in EPA-per-rush and the 14th percentile in explosive rush rate allowed.
Georgia football news
- Georgia has been idle since it won the SEC Championship Game against Alabama back on Dec. 6.
- Gunner Stockton ended the year in a bit of a slump. In his last 3 games, Stockton is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt with a 4-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio.
- For the season, Georgia’s passing offense has been effective. The Bulldogs are 13th nationally in passing success rate and 25th in EPA-per-pass.
- Georgia’s rushing offense has been a bit more hit-or-miss. Starting running back Nate Frazier ranks 41st among running backs (min. 100 carries) in EPA-per-rush, according to CFB-Graphs.
- Georgia has not been as dominant on defense this season as it usually is. The Bulldogs are 37th nationally in EPA-per-play allowed — not bad, but far from elite.
- However, the Bulldogs have been much better over the second half of the season than they were in the first few games. Since the start of November, Georgia has only allowed 7 touchdowns in 6 games. They conceded 17 touchdowns over their first 7 games of the season.
- Chris Cole has emerged as Georgia’s best pass rusher. He has a pass rush win rate north of 16%, per Pro Football Focus.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss predictions
I like the Ole Miss team total under in the second half. I could see the Rebels making some progress early in the game, but I’d be surprised if they’re still putting up significant points deep into the second half. I just think Georgia’s team and coaching staff will be more prepared and that should show itself as the game wears on. We even saw that pattern play out in the first meeting — Ole Miss’s offense completely stalled out in the fourth quarter after a strong start.
Pick: Ole Miss team total second half under 13.5 (-125 on DraftKings)
I also think this is a spot where Nate Frazier should have a big game. Frazier gets the lion’s share of carries in the Georgia backfield and has been consistently good this season. He’s facing an Ole Miss defense that was among the worst in the country at preventing long runs this season. My anticipated game script — a comfortable Georgia win — also lends itself to Frazier getting plenty of work out of the backfield as the Bulldogs could be trying to salt away a win in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Nate Frazier over 66.5 rushing yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
