The 2026 college football season is right around the corner.
Several sports betting apps have already begun posting lines for Week 1 games and some of the most highly-anticipated contests throughout the season.
This story will attempt to identify 5 potential upset spots this fall.
Predicting college football upsets
Let’s dive in:
Louisville over Ole Miss
This is one of the more interesting ACC vs. SEC matchups this year. Ole Miss is riding high with Trinidad Chambliss back in the lineup and Pete Golding as head coach. But I think this is a dangerous spot for the Rebels — we don’t know what Golding’s program will look like after a full offseason where he had to replace most of Ole Miss’s offensive coaching staff and personnel.
Louisville is moving quietly into the offseason with former Ohio State backup quarterback Lincoln Kienholz under center. Defensively, Louisville brings back most of a defense that ranked in the top 20 in EPA-per-pass allowed last season. I think the Cardinals are underrated heading into this early kickoff in Nashville.
Current odds: Louisville +6.5 (-110) | via BetMGM
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Tennessee over Texas
Tennessee has a very wide range of possible outcomes in 2026. The Vols are likely to start George MacIntrye at quarterback — a former blue-chip recruit, but someone with very little collegiate experience. There are also questions about Tennessee’s defense, though things should be improved with Jim Knowles taking over this offseason.
I like this spot for the Volunteers for a few reasons. The biggest factor is I also have questions about a Texas defense that lost a ton of star power to the NFL this offseason and has a new defensive coordinator in Will Muschamp who hasn’t been a solo DC in over a decade. Tennessee’s home crowd is also one of the best in the nation and this game comes ahead of Texas’s trip to Dallas for the Red River Rivalry (albeit with a bye week in between).
Current odds: Tennessee +6.5 (-110) | via DraftKings
Alabama over Georgia
This is another spot where I think bettors are getting a discount if they’re willing to back a team with an uncertain quarterback situation. Alabama will have an inexperienced QB under center this year, but Kalen DeBoer has proven time and time again that he will produce excellent offenses even with sub-optimal quarterback play.
On the other side, Georgia’s offense has been mediocre by national title contender standards in recent years and I’d expect that to be true again in 2026. Alabama is one of the few teams on UGA’s schedule that it can’t bully with tough defense and a powerful run game. Given that Alabama is a home dog, I like backing the Tide here.
Current odds: Alabama +3 (-110) | via DraftKings
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Baylor over Auburn
I’m fairly bullish on the Alex Golesh era at Auburn long-term, but I’m not sure what the Tigers have done to deserve being a touchdown favorite over Baylor. These teams met a year ago in Waco, but that version of the Tigers will be unrecognizable (for better or worse) compared to the team that will take the field against Baylor in Week 1.
The Bears upgraded at quarterback by adding DJ Lagway this offseason. They have a defensive-minded head coach in Dave Aranda and a good offensive coordinator in Jake Spavital. Lagway still has a very high ceiling despite a disastrous 2025 season in Gainesville. Lastly, it’s worth noting Auburn moved this game to Atlanta so Baylor won’t have to contend with a pure road environment.
Current odds: Baylor +7 (-110) | via bet365
North Carolina over TCU
We all remember what a disaster North Carolina was last season, particularly in its game against TCU. The Tar Heels showed a bit more fight later in the season, but the images from that 48-14 defeat have persisted. With this matchup repeating to kickoff the 2026 season in Ireland, I’m interested in buying low on a UNC program that conceivably made big strides this offseason.
Carolina should be improved at most key positions. Meanwhile, TCU lost quarterback Josh Hoover to Indiana this offseason. This game will be played in Ireland during Week 0 and I think it will be decided by less than touchdown in either direction.
Current odds: North Carolina +6.5 (-110) | via BetMGM
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
