It’s almost time for Week 11 of the 2025 college football season.
We went 2-3 with our underdog picks last week despite having closing line value in 4 of the 5 games. We’ll hope for better results this week.
Week 11 college football predictions
Here are 5 picks on underdogs to cover the spread in Week 11:
Mississippi State +9 over Georgia
I like Mississippi State against the number in the battle of the Bulldogs this week. State has been competitive in virtually every game this season and is coming off of a big comeback win over Arkansas this past weekend. Georgia has been underwhelming this season despite its nearly pristine record entering Week 11. Perhaps most importantly, UGA has a date with Texas on deck that will have major College Football Playoff implications. I think Georgia will do what it needs to do to win this game and not much more.
Pick: Mississippi State +9 (-110 on Fanatics)
Mizzou +7 over Texas A&M
Texas A&M hits the road to face a Mizzou team that has an elite rushing attack led by Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts. A&M is coming off a bye, so the Aggies will theoretically be well-rested for that challenge. But Texas A&M’s defense isn’t great against the run — it ranks 90th in EPA-per-rush allowed, according to Game on Paper. Mizzou also has a new quarterback in freshman Matt Zollers and there’s very little relevant tape on him given that he’s a true freshman. Mizzou has an excellent defense and I think the Tigers will be able to keep this within a touchdown at home.
Pick: Mizzou +7 (-115 on BetMGM)
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Kansas +5 over Arizona
I like backing the Jayhawks this week. KU’s defense has been terrible for about a month now, but its offense is still good enough to keep it in games. The Jayhawks have a top-35 offense per Game on Paper’s EPA metric and will be facing an Arizona team with a pretty lackluster passing attack this week. Arizona’s metrics might be a bit inflated after it demolished a quickly-collapsing Colorado team this past weekend.
Pick: Kansas +5 (-110 on Fanatics)
LSU +10 over Alabama
I like LSU at this number. The Tigers clearly have a talented roster and still possess an elite defense led by coordinator Blake Baker. LSU’s offense could also look different this week with Joe Sloan no longer calling the plays. Garrett Nussmeier has seemingly been playing hurt this season — to some degree, at least — so getting him coming out of an idle week is enticing. I like what I’ve heard from interim head coach Frank Wilson as he attempts to galvanize this team, too. Lastly, Alabama’s results have looked better than the process for a few weeks now. Alabama ranks just 25th nationally in net success rate, per Game on Paper. I think LSU can keep this within single digits. That’s not bad by any means, but it’s also not overwhelmingly positive for a team that seems to be power-rated in the top 5 nationwide.
Pick: LSU +10 (-110 on bet365)
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UConn +9.5 over Duke
Duke is being hyped as a potential College Football Playoff participant following its narrow win over Clemson this past week. This is a look-ahead spot for Duke, who will face Virginia next week in a game that carries massive ACC title (and therefore CFP) implications. But first, Duke has to go on the road and play the Huskies. UConn has turned into a surprising-competent program under Jim Mora. UConn already has 1 ACC win this season (over Boston College on the road last month). I’m not calling for the outright victory here, but I do think UConn will keep this well within the number.
Pick: UConn +9.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
