Week 1 is finally here.
This story will attempt to predict 5 money line underdogs who will win outright this upcoming weekend by looking for value across various college football prediction markets.
Let’s dive in:
Week 1 upset predictions
Here are 5 picks for Week 1:
Louisville over Ole Miss
Pete Golding passed his first test with the Rebels — last year’s College Football Playoff — with flying colors. He led Ole Miss to a pair of CFP victories and a trip to the semifinals. However, going through a full offseason and preparing for a 12-game slate is another matter entirely.
I think this test against Louisville will be tougher than many give the Cardinals credit for. Jeff Brohm will have Lincoln Kienholz and the rest of this team ready — the Cardinals are 4-3 straight up as underdogs since he took over in 2023. From 2017-22 at Purdue, the Boilermakers went 15-20 as dogs. That’s a 43% win rate — the FBS average over that span was just 26%.
As for Ole Miss, the Rebels lost most of their offensive coaching staff, almost all of their top wide receivers and lost multiple offensive linemen. Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are back, but I think Ole Miss is vulnerable in Week 1.
Pick: Louisville to win (29% chance on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +245
San Jose State over Eastern Michigan
I won’t spend too much time here on a game between a pair of low-majors, but I think San Jose State should be favored in this game. The Spartans showed a lot of fight in the second half against USC’s backups and third-stringers in Week 0, which is enough for me to back them here in Week 1 on the road. Quarterback Luke Weaver was excellent — especially relative to expectations — as he threw for 234 yards and 2 touchdowns on 32 attempts while adding another 42 yards and a TD on the ground.
Eastern Michigan also had a big Week 0 victory, claiming a win over the newly-promoted Sacramento State. The problem is I think Sac State might be among the worst Group-of-6 schools in the country this year and EMU only managed an EPA-per-play in the 31st percentile, per Game on Paper.
Pick: San Jose State to win (42% on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +138
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Florida State over SMU
This is a hold-your-nose pick. The Noles are 3.5-point underdogs at home to an SMU program that has absolutely dominated the ACC since joining the conference. The reaction to FSU’s unimpressive win over New Mexico State in Week 0 was an exaggeration in my opinion — the Noles were in control for the entire game and posted significant gaps in success rate and EPA.
Florida State presumably didn’t show anything too complex scheme-wise in its Week 0 win while knowing SMU was on deck. It’s worth noting SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings dealt with a finger injury in August and missed most of fall camp, though he’s expected to be good to go for the opener on Monday night.
Pick: Florida State to win (40% on NoVig) | Implied odds: +150
Cal over UCLA
UCLA has been a bit of a darling this offseason with former James Madison head coach Bob Chesney arriving in Westwood. Nico Iamaleava is back, but otherwise this is a bit of a rebuild, as the Bruins brought in over 60 new players this season — including many from JMU.
I like the Golden Bears in this matchup — I think they have the best quarterback in the game (and maybe in the entire ACC) and new head coach Tosh Lupoi is known as an excellent recruiter and talent evaluator.
Pick: Cal to win (46% on Novig)
Boston College over Cincinnati
I haven’t heard much hype about Boston College this offseason, but Bill O’Brien is still there trying to make things work in Chestnut Hill. We’ll see if he can. This pick is more about my lack of faith in Cincinnati and new quarterback JC French.
French replaced Brendan Sorsby this offseason after a turnover-prone stretch at Georgia Southern. He threw 20 picks over the last 2 seasons. He had a whopping 33 turnover-worthy plays over that span, per Pro Football Focus. I think he’s likely to be a significant downgrade from Sorsby, who was one of the more underrated QBs in the country in 2025.
Pick: Boston College to win (29% on Kalshi)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
