It’s time for Week 4 of the college football season.
This is one of the most loaded slates of the year with numerous top-25 matchups. We’ll be digging a bit deeper, though, in an attempt to find value in backing underdogs to win outright on various college football prediction markets.
Week 4 college football upset picks
Let’s dive in to this week’s picks:
Clemson over Cal
In general, I’m out on this Clemson team — I think the offense stinks and the defense is a shell of what it once was even a couple of years ago. But to have this Clemson program as an underdog against Cal feels like a stretch to me. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and this Cal offense have been a disappointment to start the year and I’m not sure the defense has much to hang its hat on either. This is a long trip for Clemson, but I trust Dabo Swinney to have his team ready to play. From a body clock standpoint, it helps that it’s a late kickoff on Friday night.
Pick: Clemson (50% on Polymarket)
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Tulsa over Arkansas
I don’t think Tulsa will have any fear going into Fayetteville this weekend after upsetting Oklahoma State earlier this year. The Golden Hurricane won’t have starting quarterback Baylor Hayes, but he’s been uneven to start the season anyways. Arkansas has looked dreadful on both sides of the ball in both of its FBS matchups to start the season. This is also the exact type of game Ryan Silverfield used to lose all the time at Memphis — he was just 9-6 straight up as a favorite of 7 points or fewer.
Pick: Tulsa (30% on Kalshi)
Maryland over UCLA
Maryland is coming off of a disappointing loss to Virginia Tech in Week 3. I still like the Terps and quarterback Malik Washington, particularly in the role as a home underdog. Mike Locksley may be coaching for his job in the coming weeks. Bob Chesney is off to a strong start at UCLA, but the Bruins haven’t had to leave the state of California yet this season. Now they get a cross-country road trip and a 9:30 a.m. PT kickoff on Saturday. Welcome to the Big Ten, Coach Chesney.
Pick: Maryland (48% on Polymarket)
Iowa over Michigan
I have seen absolutely nothing from Michigan this season to think the Wolverines deserve to be favored against any team with a pulse. Michigan was nearly losing to UTEP at halftime last week and wouldn’t have beaten Oklahoma without a gift-wrapped interception and a litany of other mistakes from John Mateer. The total for this game is 38.5, which implies that markets believe this Michigan team is capable of scoring more than 21 points against the Hawkeyes. I doubt it!
Pick: Iowa (34% on Kalshi)
UCF over TCU
The last time we saw TCU play against a real opponent, the Horned Frogs were getting embarrassed by North Carolina in Dublin. Since then, TCU has beaten Grambling State and Arkansas State in blowout fashion. Quarterback Jaden Craig was terrible against the Tar Heels in the rain, but has been excellent in better conditions against low-level opposition. This is a bet that Craig will struggle again against a higher level of opposition. Since there’s still a lot we don’t know about this Horned Frogs team, I’ll take the home team and the points in this spot.
Pick: UCF (42% on Kalshi)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
