We’re back for another round of upset predictions for Week 9.
Last week was another good week — we hit on 3 of the 5 picks with Duke (+113), Kansas (+133) and UCF (+223) all winning outright. Tennessee and Houston came close, but no cigar.
For the year, picks in this column are up about 3.3 units. We’ll try to keep the momentum going this weekend.
Week 9 upset predictions
Let’s dive in:
Cal over NC State
This Cal season has been a disaster, but the Golden Bears were competitive with SMU for a half last week and have looked a little bit better since making a midseason offensive coordinator change. NC State will be playing its first game without Dave Doeren after firing him on Saturday. Will the Wolfpack play with a new-coach bump or will they be inclined to finally quit on a season that’s been spiraling since the Vanderbilt debacle in September? With this pick, I’m banking on the latter.
Pick: Cal to win (30% on Kalshi)
South Carolina over Oklahoma
I think we’re at a point where it’s +EV to fade Oklahoma any time it’s a favorite in SEC play. The Sooners won in Starkville last week, but if Kamario Taylor was healthy, that could have been a very different game. OU had its best offensive game of the season (6.7 yards per play) vs. Mississippi State, but I’m not buying it as a legitimate improvement yet. Mississippi State has the worst defense Oklahoma has played since Week 1 and the Sooners still only won by 8 against a backup quarterback. South Carolina is also the fresher team — the Gamecocks have only played 1 game since their bye while OU will be playing on its 4th consecutive Saturday.
Pick: South Carolina to win (36% on Novig)
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Iowa State over Oklahoma State
Look, it’s true that Iowa State hasn’t been very good in its last couple games — blowout losses to BYU and Arizona. But I think the Cyclones and Cowboys are much closer in overall quality than the market is currently indicating, so I show value on Iowa State at the current price. Arizona and OK State run similar offensive systems (OSU coach Eric Morris and Arizona OC Seth Doege both played at Texas Tech under Mike Leach), so Iowa State will be getting a second consecutive look at this style. OK State’s offense has been excellent this season, but its defense is bad enough that I think Iowa State will have a chance to hang around and win this game late.
Pick: Iowa State (25% on Kalshi)
USC over Ohio State
There are a few reasons for this play, none bigger than the absence of Ohio State QB Julian Sayin. I’m not sure Sayin gets enough credit for just how good he’s been against USC-type teams. The Buckeyes don’t appear to have a solid backup option with 3-star freshman Luke Fahey getting the nod over former 5-star Tavien St. Claire last week. Ryan Day hasn’t confirmed a starter for this week’s game, but that uncertainty alone is enough for me to have reservations about Ohio State’s offense. I’m also happy to buy USC coming off a road loss to Wisconsin where the Trojans’ defense actually played quite well. The offense was horrendous, but I think Lincoln Riley could have the Trojans back on track at home, where they’ve played much better since moving to the Big Ten.
Pick: USC to win (30% on Kalshi)
Northwestern over Oregon
Northwestern has been quietly humming this season — Chip Kelly’s offense with Aidan Chiles currently ranks 8th in the nation in opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. The defense hasn’t been terrible, either. Maybe Oregon just has too much of an athletic advantage in the trenches, but I can’t see why Northwestern should be an underdog against a Ducks team that has been dreadful on offense this season. The Ducks are also among the most-injured teams in the nation — quarterback Dante Moore remains out and numerous other key players missed last week’s game against Illinois.
Pick: Northwestern to win (39% on Novig)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
