It’s time for Week 6 of the college football season.
Before we get to the picks for this week, let’s take stock of a trend that’s been developing through the first few weeks of the campaign.
Upsets are down across the board. Through Week 5, underdogs of +105 or more have won outright just 17.6% of the time. From 2021-2025, teams fitting that criteria won 25% of the time in Weeks 1-5.
Underdogs with a moneyline between +200 and +400 are winning only 14% of games this season. Historically, teams with those moneylines convert at a 27% rate through week 5.
However, I suspect this is happening mostly due to the market mis-pricing games involving G6 teams. The entire Group of 6 only has 3 outright victories over P4 teams this season (UMass over Rutgers, Tulsa over Oklahoma State and UNLV over Cal) compared to 73 losses.
Underdog win rates in G6 vs. G6 games appear to be mis-priced as well. This could be a small sample size artifact or it could be a consequence of how hard it is to model team strength in the current environment, especially at the G6 level where less is known about impact players than at the P4 level.
Underdogs are still winning at roughly the implied rate in P4 vs. P4 matchups:
With the knowledge that upset rates are relatively stable in P4 vs. P4 games, let’s dive in to this week’s picks:
Iowa State over BYU
Iowa State has been surprisingly competitive under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers. The Cyclones are 3-2 overall and 2-0-1 ATS against P4 opposition this season. The case for this pick, though, has more to do with BYU. I’m a little bit lower on the Cougars than the market seems to be — I don’t think they’re particularly close to being a top-10 team. The passing offense is a concern. Bear Bachmeier is a solid Big 12 QB, but he’s capable of wildly-inefficient outings like we saw last week vs. TCU. This is also a pretty clear lookahead spot for the Cougars, who host Notre Dame in Week 7.
Pick: Iowa State to win (22% on Kalshi)
South Carolina over Florida
This is a big of a long-shot, but I think I’m buying at the bottom of the market on South Carolina. Florida, of course, isn’t exactly riding high after a blowout loss to Mizzou, but the Gators could still fall a bit further. If South Carolina’s coaching staff hasn’t lost the locker room, the Gamecocks are built to give UF some trouble. They have an elite pass rusher in Dylan Stewart (if he plays, suspension status is TBA) and their rushing defense is in the top 40 in yards per carry allowed so far this season. Florida also has a meeting with No. 1 Texas on deck followed by the annual rivalry game against Georgia on Halloween. If South Carolina gets up for this game, Florida could get caught napping.
Pick: South Carolina to win (19% on Kalshi)
Nebraska over Indiana
I’ll acknowledge that this could look like a monumentally-stupid pick by the midway point of the first quarter on Saturday. Nevertheless, here’s my pitch: Nebraska has an excellent offense and a solid defense. Indiana has only played one team with half a pulse this season, Northwestern, and nearly lost outright. Nebraska also gets to play this game at home one week before IU is set to host Ohio State in a top-10 showdown — a classic look-ahead spot. I think Indiana is more vulnerable this year than it was in 2025.
Pick: Nebraska to win (27% on Novig)
USC over Penn State
I know USC hasn’t been good in these cross-country road spots under Lincoln Riley, but I can’t see Penn State as a favorite in this game. The Nittany Lions have been exposed as a poor man’s version of recent Iowa State teams because, well, that’s what they are for this year. I think Matt Campbell can get things turned around in 2027 and beyond, but Wisconsin and Northwestern have proven that Penn State’s roster just isn’t good enough this season. USC’s offense will be by far the best unit on the field and the Trojans should be able to pick up a road win here.
Pick: USC to win (49% on Kalshi)
Michigan State over Illinois
Illinois has been a total mess on defense this season. In terms of opponent-adjusted EPA-per-play allowed, the Fighting Illini rank 135th out of 138 FBS teams. The offense is pretty good, but Illinois is still 105th in net success rate. I’m not sure Illinois should be a road favorite against any P4 team with a defense of this caliber. Michigan State doesn’t have much to get excited about, but the Spartans are at least average nationally in rushing success rate. I think they’ll be able to move the ball on Illinois and should have a chance to win this game at home.
Pick: Michigan State to win (45% on Novig)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
