Welcome to Week 8 of the college football season.
Below you’ll find 5 upset predictions for the upcoming slate.
Last week was another profitable one for this column thanks to outright wins by Florida (+355) and Washington (+156). That makes 4 consecutive weeks of correctly picking at least 2 outright winners.
Week 8 upset picks
Let’s break down 5 more picks for this week:
Duke over Virginia
I’m just comfortable fading Virginia at the moment. This offense has not been good when Beau Pribula can’t run. After getting banged up earlier this season, Pribula has a rushing success rate of under 43% this year. That’s not going to cut it — he’s not a good enough downfield passer if he doesn’t have the threat of using his legs. UVA ranks 69th nationally in EPA-per-dropback this season. I think Duke is better on both sides of the ball and I don’t feel that Virginia’s homefield advantage warrants the Cavaliers being a slight favorite in this spot.
Pick: Duke to win (47% on Kalshi)
UCF over BYU
This is a horrendous spot for the Cougars. Fresh off one of the biggest wins in school history, BYU must now make the cross-country trip to UCF to face a Golden Knights team that’s coming off of a bye. UCF has recently fallen to CFP contenders like Oklahoma State and Houston — the Knights won’t be caught off guard by BYU’s talent level. Oh by the way, BYU has games against Arizona State and Utah on deck.
Pick: UCF to win (31% on Novig)
Kansas over Baylor
Is Baylor on quit watch? I wouldn’t rule it out given the way the Bears lost to rival TCU last weekend. DJ Lagway threw for 256 yards on a whopping 52 attempts. His completion percentage over expected was -14.3, one of the worst marks for any game this season given his volume of attempts. Just putrid stuff. The Jayhawks are also coming off of a rivalry-game loss, but I think they put together a better effort than the final score suggested against Kansas State. I’ll take KU at home.
Pick: Kansas to win (43% on Kalshi)
RELATED: Want to trade Saturday’s spreads and totals? SDS has the Kalshi promo code and how it works.
Tennessee over South Carolina
I’m admittedly nervous about buying Tennessee after an emotional win, especially with South Carolina coming off of an idle week. But I’m too high on the Vols to let this slip by — I think they’re a top 10 team and a real contender to win a game in the College Football Playoff if George MacIntyre continues to improve. Tennessee’s defense and running game should travel just fine to Columbia.
Pick: Tennessee to win (46% on Polymarket)
Houston over Utah
Here are the net success rate rankings for every FBS team Utah has played this season:
- Arkansas: 118th
- Utah State: 126th
- Iowa State: 92nd
- Kansas: 73rd
- Colorado: 75th
The Utes have been dominant, but they haven’t played anybody yet. Houston ranks 19th in net success rate, so it will be the best team Utah has faced so far this season by a significant margin. Houston, meanwhile, has already faced 3 opponents who are top-40 in net success rate.
Pick: Houston (32% on Novig)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
