The 2026 college football season will be upon us before we know it. And starting from Week 1 (or Week 0, technically), the race for the 2026 College Football Playoff is on.
Though the 12-team field provides a bit more margin for error than the previous 4-team Playoff, margins are still razor-thin and any misstep can hurt when it’s time to select the CFP squads.
As we approach the 2026 campaign, we here at Saturday Down South are projecting which teams will make the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.
Do you need a refresher about the College Football Playoff format this year? Here you go:
- Automatic bids for the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC champions
- Notre Dame receives an auto-bid if it finishes in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings
- The top Group of 6 champion gets an auto-bid
- The 4 highest-ranked teams in the final CFP rankings get the first-round byes, regardless of if they win their conference championships or not
And here’s a look back at the teams we’ve predicted will make the Playoff thus far during our series:
- No. 12 — Boise State
- No. 11 — Michigan
- No. 10 — Alabama
- No. 9 — LSU
And now, let’s dive into our projected No. 8 seed … the reigning-champion Indiana Hoosiers.
The Playoff Path
Curt Cignetti is the man, plain and simple.
And the schedule is very manageable for this year’s version of the Hoosiers. Indiana should be able to sleepwalk through the first 5 weeks of the season. Look at this slate:
- Week 1 — vs. North Texas
- Week 2 — vs. Howard
- Week 3 — vs. Western Kentucky
- Week 4 — vs. Northwestern
- Week 5 — at Rutgers
Indiana will be a massive favorite in every single one of those games. The Hoosiers should also be heavily favored in a Week 6 matchup at Nebraska.
That’s when things get difficult. In Week 7, the Hoosiers host Ohio State in what should be a battle of top-5 teams. The next week, they travel to the Big House to take on Michigan. That’s a tough back-to-back.
Even if Indiana loses both of those games (which isn’t a guarantee for a team this good, of course), the Playoff path is still there. The season wraps up like this:
- Week 9 — vs. Minnesota
- Week 10 — OFF
- Week 11 — vs. USC
- Week 12 — at Washington
- Week 13 — vs. Purdue
You’ll notice no Oregon on that list. No Penn State, either.
USC could be a Playoff contender. Heading out to Washington will be tricky.
But the fact of the matter is the Hoosiers can lose 2 games and still make the Playoff. Take care of business in the games they’ll be heavily favored and they’ll only have to go 2-2 against Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington. That should be more than doable for the reigning champs.
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The Possible Roadblock
When you go 16-0 and have the Heisman Trophy winner and eventual No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick on your roster (Fernando Mendoza), it’s not going to be easy to do it all over again.
Mendoza is now with the Las Vegas Raiders. Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt are gone from the receiving corps. Top RBs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, both of whom ran for 1,000+ yards last year, are gone. D’Angelo Ponds and Louis Moore leave big-time shoes to fill in the secondary.
Even when you account for key returners like Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year Carter Smith, leading tackler (and sacks leader) Rolijah Hardy, WR Charlie Becker and others, it’s going to be tough to recapture the same kind of magic in 2026.
I love what Cignetti did in the portal, getting QB Josh Hoover from TCU. He also brought in guys who should contribute right away in WR Nick Marsh, RB Turbo Richard, edge rushers Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi and several others.
That’s a great portal haul. And as mentioned in the previous section, these new guys have a nice 5-game runway at the start of the season to figure out the system and where they fit. But will that be enough to keep the Hoosiers ahead of Ohio State?
The Buckeyes return QB Julian Sayin, who was also a Heisman finalist, WR Jeremiah Smith, RB Bo Jackson and an experienced offensive line. The defense might take a small step back after losing several key players in the early rounds of the 2026 draft, but it shouldn’t completely collapse.
Last year, the Hoosiers only had to face Ohio State once, taking down the Buckeyes in an intense, low-scoring B1G title game. This year, they host the Buckeyes during the regular season and could meet them again in Indianapolis. Beating Ohio State twice would be a tough ask.
Do these potential “roadblocks” seem minor?
Yeah.
Cignetti is a heck of a coach and I think the Hoosiers are a safe pick to make the Playoff field. It’s just a matter of where they’ll be slotted, and I predict they’ll end up having to play a Round 1 matchup this time around.
Odds to Make the Playoff
Indiana currently has a 70% chance to make the Playoff field, according to Kalshi. That’s good for the 6th-best odds in the nation, so the Kalshi market is a little more confident in the Hoosiers’ chances than we are, apparently.
Here’s a look at the market as things stand currently:
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Can Cignetti guide his Hoosiers back to the Playoff with a chance to win back-to-back titles? This season is going to be a lot of fun in Bloomington.
We’ll be back tomorrow with our projected No. 7 seed… the first (and only) Big 12 squad we have making the field.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
