Race to the top: How will Chubb, Michel fare this fall in pursuit of Georgia rushing records?

Georgia enters this fall as the favorite to win the SEC East.

Much of that has to do with its running back stable, where it brings back a pair of seniors in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Both have carved out a place for themselves in the Bulldogs’ annals. But each can continue to rise up those ranks with big seasons this fall.

Here’s a look at a handful of the marks the pair is chasing, breaking down each of their chances in various categories.

(Note: All numbers below come from Georgia’s official media guide.)

Most rushes, single game

• 1. 47 — Herschel Walker vs. Florida, 1981 (SEC record)
• 2. 43 — Herschel Walker vs. South Carolina, 1980
• 3. 41 — Herschel Walker vs. Ole Miss, 1981
• T4. 39 — Herschel Walker vs. Mississippi State, 1982
• T4. 39 — Verron Haynes vs. Georgia Tech, 2001
• T6. 38 — Herschel Walker vs. Vanderbilt, 1982
• T6. 38 — Torin Kirtsey vs. Clemson, 1995
• T6. 38 — Nick Chubb vs. Missouri, 2014
• T9. 37 — Herschel Walker vs. Florida, 1980
• T9. 37 — Herschel Walker vs. Auburn, 1981
• T9. 37 — Robert Arnaud vs. Kentucky, 1995

Chubb’s chances of breaking Walker’s single-game record: Not likely.

In the modern game, with an emphasis on passing and spreading the wealth around, a player rarely receives more than 30 rushes in a single contest. Though Chubb has carried 30-plus times on four occasions, three came during his freshman season. Wanting to keep him healthy this season, and given the depth of the Bulldogs’ backfield, it would be surprising to see his name land on this list above, barring a game where his hand is so hot the Bulldogs don’t mind going to him nearly every other play.

Michel’s chances of breaking Walker’s single-game record: Nearly zero.

The most carries Michel has had in a single game is 26, which came against Missouri and Auburn, respectively in 2015. Michel excels in smaller doses; carrying 20-plus times a game isn’t what suits him best, and that won’t change this fall.

Most rushes, single season

• 1. 385 — Herschel Walker, 1981
• 2. 335 — Herschel Walker, 1982
• 3. 287 — Willie McClendon, 1978
• 4. 274 — Herschel Walker, 1980
• 5. 260 — Musa Smith, 2002
• 6. 250 — Knowshon Moreno, 2008
• 7. 248 — Knowshon Moreno, 2007
• 8. 228 — Garrison Hearst, 1992
• 9. 224 — Nick Chubb, 2016
• 10. 222 — Todd Gurley, 2012

Chubb’s chances of breaking Walker’s record: Not good … unless the Bulldogs make it to the College Football Playoff. Walker’s 385 rushes stood as the SEC’s all-time record for a single season until 2015, when Alabama’s Derrick Henry broke it with 395. Walker’s carries came in 11 games; Henry played in 15 in 2015. If Georgia can make it to the College Football Playoff national championship game, Chubb might be within reach of Walker’s school mark and Henry’s league standard.

Michel’s chances of breaking Walker’s record: Nope.

Moving on …

Most rushes, career

• 1. 994 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82 (SEC record)
• 2. 615 — Lars Tate, 1984-87
• 3. 562 — Kevin McLee, 1975-77
• 4. 543 — Garrison Hearst, 1990-92
• 5. 535 — Nick Chubb, 2014-present
• 6. 529 — Thomas Brown, 2004-07
• 7. 510 — Todd Gurley, 2012-14
• 8. 498 — Knowshon Moreno, 2007-08
• 9. 472 — Rodney Hampton, 1987-89
• 10. 461 — Jimmy Poulos, 1971-73
• 11. 454 — Musa Smith, 2000-02
• 12. 447 — Frank Sinkwich, 1940-42
  Michel: 435, 2014-present

How high can Chubb rise up the chart? Second seems quite likely unless he gets hurt. But Walker’s record is out of reach. For Chubb to surpass Walker, he’d have to carry the ball — and this is no typo — a whopping 460 times this fall. Ain’t gonna happen, folks.

How high can Michel rise up the chart? Let’s use the average here: Michel has carried 435 times in three seasons, which amounts to 145 attempts per year. Tack on 145 more this season, and that brings him to 580. Fourth-most all-time while sharing carries with another uber-talented backfield mate? Not too shabby.

Most rushes per game, career

• 1. 30.1 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82 (SEC record)
• 2. 19.2 — Knowshon Moreno, 2007-08
• 3. 17.6 — Kevin McLee, 1975-77
• 4. 17.1 — Robert Edwards, 1995-97
• 5. 17.0 — Todd Gurley, 2012-14

Can either Chubb or Michel make it on this list? 

Michel, at 13.2 carries per game in 33 appearances, has no shot. Chubb very well may. Entering this season, he has rushed 535 times in 32 games, good for an average of 16.7 carries per contest. This merely comes down to how many games the Bulldogs end up playing in this fall. My money is that Chubb etches his name on this list by the end of the season.

Most rushing yards, single game

• 1. 283 — Herschel Walker vs. Vanderbilt, 1980
• 2. 266 — Nick Chubb vs. Louisville, 2014
• 3. 265 — Herschel Walker vs. Ole Miss, 1981
• 4. 246 — Garrison Hearst vs. Vanderbilt, 1992
• 5. 239 — Charley Trippi vs. Florida, 1945
• 6. 238 — Herschel Walker vs. Florida, 1980
• 7. 227 — Rodney Hampton vs. Ole Miss, 1987
• 8. 225 — Herschel Walker vs. Ga. Tech, 1981
• 9. 222 — Nick Chubb vs. N. Carolina, 2016
• T10. 219 — Herschel Walker vs. S. Carolina, 1980
• T10. 219 — Herschel Walker vs. Memphis. St., 1981
• T10. 219 — Herschel Walker vs. Florida, 1982

Can Chubb or Michel break Walker’s record? I wouldn’t bet on Michel; his career-high for a single-game is 170 yards, which he totaled against Georgia Tech last season. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he notched at least one 200-plus-yard effort this fall, but much more than that doesn’t seem plausible. But Chubb is a different story. If he gets on one of his patented hot streaks one Saturday, taking down Walker’s mark seems doable — and possibly even accomplishing Georgia’s first 300-yard game ever, which has only happened five other times in SEC history.

Most rushing yards, single season

• 1. 1,891 — Herschel Walker, 1981
• 2. 1,752 — Herschel Walker, 1982
• 3. 1,616 — Herschel Walker, 1980
• T4. 1,547 — Garrison Hearst, 1992
• T4. 1,547 — Nick Chubb, 2014
• 6. 1,400 — Knowshon Moreno, 2008
• 7. 1,385 — Todd Gurley, 2012
• 8. 1,334 — Knowshon Moreno, 2008
• 9. 1,324 — Musa Smith, 2002
• 10. 1,312 — Willie McClendon, 1978

Can Chubb or Michel break Walker’s hallowed record?

Michel’s chances aren’t good unless Chubb gets hurt. (Note that Michel’s best season came in 2015, when he rushed for 1,161 yards.) But Chubb has shown he’s capable of achieving greatness. As mentioned earlier, if Georgia is able to make it into the College Football Playoff, this record might be within reach for him.

Most rushing yards, career

• 1. 5,259 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82 (SEC record)
• 2. 3,424 — Nick Chubb, 2014-present
• 3. 3,285 — Todd Gurley, 2012-14
• 4. 3,232 — Garrison Hearst, 1990-92
• 5. 3,017 — Lars Tate, 1984-87
• 6. 2,734 — Knowshon Moreno, 2007-08
• 7. 2,668 — Rodney Hampton, 1987-89
• 8. 2,646 — Thomas Brown, 2004-07
• 9. 2,581 — Kevin McLee, 1975-77
• 10. 2,411 — Sony Michel, 2014-present

How high can Chubb rise up the chart? He’s already in second, so even if Chubb never plays another down, he will forever be known as one of Georgia’s all-time greats. So keep this in mind: His magic number this season is 1,836.

How high can Michel rise up the chart? We’ll go back to the average once again. Michel has averaged 803.67 yards per season in his three years. Add 804 more yards this fall and that brings him to 3,215, fifth-best all-time. And again, dependent upon how many games Georgia plays this fall, he might surge even higher.

Average yards per game, single season

• 1. 171.9 — Herschel Walker, 1981 (1,891 in 11 games) (SEC single-season record for most yards per game)
• 2. 159.3 — Herschel Walker, 1982 (1,752 in 11 games)
• 3. 151.8 — Todd Gurley, 2014 (911 yards in 6 games)
• 4. 146.9 — Herschel Walker, 1980 (1,616 in 11 games)
• 5. 140.6 — Garrison Hearst, 1992 (1,547 in 11 games)

Can either Chubb or Michel make it on this list? The odds are against them. The most either has achieved in a single season is Chubb’s 124.5 per game in 2015.

Average yards per game, career

• 1. 159.4 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82 (5,259 in 33 games) (SEC Record)
• 2. 109.5 — Todd Gurley, 2012-14 (3,285 in 30 games)
• 3. 107.0 — Nick Chubb, 2014-present (3,424 in 32 games)
• 4. 105.2 — Knowshon Moreno, 2007-08 (2,734 in 26 games)
• 5. 97.9 — Garrison Hearst, 1990-92 (3,232 in 33 games)
• Michel: 73.1, 2014-present

Our analysis: Walker’s record, obviously, is untouchable. But Chubb has put himself in position to challenge his predecessor, Todd Gurley, for the No. 2 spot.

Most rushing touchdowns, single season

• 1. 19 — Garrison Hearst, 1992
• 2. 18 — Herschel Walker, 1981
• T3. 17 — Tim Worley, 1988
• T3. 17 — Todd Gurley, 2012
• T5. 16 — Frank Sinkwich, 1942
• T5. 16 — Herschel Walker, 1982
• T5. 16 — Lars Tate, 1986
• T5. 16 — Knowshon Moreno, 2008

Our analysis: Michel has never rushed for more than eight touchdowns in a season, so he’s out. Chubb ran it in 14 times as a freshman, but has only combined for 15 more since. We say he’ll make a run at the top three this fall, though.

Most rushing touchdowns, career

• 1. 49 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82
• T2. 36 — Lars Tate, 1984-87
• T2. 36 — Todd Gurley, 2012-14
• 4. 33 — Garrison Hearst, 1990-92
• 5. 32 — Charley Trippi, 1942, ’45-46
• T6. 30 — Frank Sinkwich, 1940-42
• T6. 30 — Knowshon Moreno, 2007-08
• 8. 29 — Nick Chubb, 2014-present
• T9. 27 — Robert Edwards, 1995-97
• T9. 27 — Tim Worley, 1985-86, ‘88
• T9. Michel: 17, 2014-present

Our analysis: If Chubb doesn’t dominate the carries, perhaps Michel could get the 10 rushing touchdown he needs to get to 27 and place himself among the top 11 in school history. As for Chubb, we think he’ll reach the end zone at least 15 times on the ground this fall, which would put him at 44 all-time, trailing only Walker. Unless something unforeseen happens, Chubb seems to be a lock to at least make it to second place on this list.

Average yards per rush, career

• 1. 6.44 — Todd Gurley, 2012-14
• 2. 6.42 — Charley Trippi, 1942, 45-46
• 3. 6.40 — Nick Chubb, 2014-15
• 4. 6.37 — Glynn Harrison, 1972-75
• 5. 6.04 — Keith Henderson, 1985-86-88
• 6. 5.95 — Garrison Hearst, 1990-92
• 7. 5.80 — Tim Worley, 1985-86-88
• 8. 5.70 — Rodney Hampton, 1987-89
• 9. 5.49 — Knowshon Moreno, 2007-08
• 10. 5.29 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82

Our analysis: Chubb already owns two of the top four seasons in Georgia history for yards per rush — 8.12 yards per carry in 2015 (Georgia’s all-time best mark) and 7.06 yards per carry in 2014. If he comes close to either of those efforts this fall, he’ll vault Gurley and Trippi for first all-time.

Most rushing yards by a senior

• 1. 1,312 —Willie McClendon, 1978
• 2. 1,016 — Lars Tate, 1987
• 3. 908 — Robert Edwards, 1997
• 4. 795 — Frank Sinkwich, 1942
• 5. 779 — Thomas Brown, 2007

Our analysis: Both Chubb and Michel crack the top five of this list come the end of the season.

Most games gaining 100-plus yards rushing in a single season

• 1. 11 — Herschel Walker, 1981
• 2. 10 — Herschel Walker, 1982
• T3. 9 — Todd Gurley, 2012
• T3. 9 — Musa Smith, 2002
• T3. 9 — Garrison Hearst, 1992

Our analysis: Chubb goes for 100-plus rushing yards at least nine times this season.

Most games gaining 200-plus rushing yards, career

• 1. 9 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82
• 2. 3 — Nick Chubb, 2014-present
• T3. 1 — Charley Trippi, 1942, 45-46
• T3. 1 — Kevin McLee, 1975-77
• T3. 1 — Lars Tate, 1984-87

Our analysis: While Walker’s record appears safe, Chubb gets at least one more 200-yard outing before he leaves Athens for the NFL. Michel might bag a 200-yard game, too.

Most games gaining 100-plus yards rushing, career

• 1. 28 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82
• T2. 18 — Todd Gurley, 2012-14
• T2. 18 — Nick Chubb, 2014-present
• 4. 16 — Garrison Hearst, 1990-92
• 5. 13 — Knowshon Moreno, 2007-08
• 6. 12 — Rodney Hampton, 1987-89
• 7. 11 — Musa Smith, 2000-2002
• T8. 10 — Robert Edwards, 1995-97
• T8. 10 — Willie McClendon, 1976-78
• Michel: 8, 2014-present

Our analysis: Chubb sails past Gurley into second and possibly displaces Walker from the mountaintop. Michel breaks into the top 10.

Most seasons gaining 1,500 yards or more

• 1. 3 — Herschel Walker, 1980-82 (Tied NCAA Record)
• T2. 1 — Garrison Hearst, 1992
• T2. 1 — Nick Chubb, 2014

Our analysis: Chubb joins Walker as the only Bulldogs to rush for 1,500-plus yards more than once.

Most seasons gaining 1,000 yards or more

• 1. 3 – Herschel Walker, 1980-82
• T2. 2 — Nick Chubb, 2014-present
• T2. — Knowshon Moreno, 2007-08

Our analysis: Chubb forces Walker to make room at the top. Michel, meanwhile, comes up just short of becoming the fourth Bulldog to rush for 1,000 yards at least twice.

Ryan Black

Ryan Black covers Georgia football for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @RyanABlack.