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Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
There are four major outliers in the SEC when it comes to performance relative to expectations in 2015.
Just one of those — Ole Miss — has surpassed expectations. The Rebels (+47.5 ATS) suffered their first loss against the Vegas line Saturday in an uncomfortably-close home game against Vanderbilt.
The other three are a combined 2-10 ATS so far this season: Missouri (-37.5), Arkansas (-44) and Auburn (-70.5).
The state of Mississippi, meanwhile, has mirrored its early-season rise to the top despite the Bulldogs’ two-point loss to LSU. Mississippi State (+17) is one of four SEC teams with a 3-1 record ATS, as Dak Prescott and a stout defense have helped coach Dan Mullen’s team outperform early expectations.
The SEC East remains very difficult to predict, especially outside of Georgia, as five of the seven teams have performed between 2.5 and 10.5 points better than the spread through Week 4.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Alabama is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Crimson Tide is +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Ole Miss | +47.5 | 3-1 |
| 2. Mississippi State | +17 | 3-1 |
| 3. Vanderbilt | +10.5 | 2-1-1 |
| 4. Georgia | +10 | 2-2 |
| 5. Tennessee | +7.5 | 2-2 |
| T6. Texas A&M | +5.5 | 3-1 |
| T6. Kentucky | +5.5 | 2-2 |
| T8. Florida | +2.5 | 3-1 |
| T8. LSU | +2.5 | 1-2 |
| 10. Alabama | -19 | 1-3 |
| 11. South Carolina | -22.5 | 2-2 |
| 12. Missouri | -37.5 | 0-4 |
| 13. Arkansas | -44 | 1-3 |
| 14. Auburn | -70.5 | 1-3 |
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Georgia’s average Vegas line is minus-29.5, highest in the conference.
All SEC teams remain betting favorites, on average, in 2015. That’s despite Vanderbilt playing as a 27-point underdog against Ole Miss on Saturday, and a clear illustration about the enormous expectation levels that SEC teams face.
The big news here, though, is that Alabama (-23.0), owner of the longest favorite streak in modern college football history, entered the week as an underdog against Georgia, which is likely to hold at kickoff in Athens. The Tide schedule through Week 5 is brutal, as the team will have faced two top-10 teams as well as a ranked Wisconsin at a neutral site.
Kentucky (-2.4), South Carolina (-1.9) and Vanderbilt (-0.9) are the only SEC teams that haven’t been favored by an average of at least 13 points per game.
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Georgia | -29.5 | -49 vs. Southern |
| 2. Ole Miss | -23.6 | -43 vs. UT-Martin |
| 3. Alabama | -23 | -37 vs. La.-Monroe |
| T4. LSU | -18.1# | -39 vs. McNeese State |
| T4. Texas A&M | -18.1 | -30.5 vs. Ball State |
| 6. Missouri | -17.6 | -42 vs. SEMO |
| 7. Tennessee | -14.6 | -37.5 vs. W. Carolina |
| 8. Florida | -14.4 | -34.5 vs. New Mexico St. |
| 9. Arkansas | -14.3 | -31.5 vs. UTEP |
| 10. Mississippi St. | -14.0 | -39.5 vs. Northwestern St. |
| 11. Auburn | -13.1 | -47.5 vs. Jacksonville St. |
| 12. Kentucky | -2.4 | -17 vs. La.-Lafayette |
| 13. South Carolina | -1.9 | -14.5 vs. UCF |
| 14. Vanderbilt | -0.9 | -46.5 vs. Austin Peay |
#LSU entered the game against McNeese State as a 39-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening few plays, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
Missouri, facing an average over/under of just 49.0 points, has gone under the posted total in all four outings. The team’s offense scored a combined 22 points the last two weeks, while the defense still leads the SEC by allowing just 12.5 points per game.
It’s no shock to see Texas A&M (64.1) at the top of this list, but Tennessee (61.5) has gone over the total in three of four games despite the second-highest figure in the SEC. The Volunteers defense, suffering from injuries and suspensions, hasn’t performed as well as most hoped, while the offense still has managed to put up points despite going into conservative mode with second-half leads.
| Team | Avg. Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | 64.1 | 66 vs. Nevada | 2/2 |
| 2. Tennessee | 61.5 | 68 vs. Bowling Green | 3/1 |
| 3. Arkansas | 59.5 | 69.5 vs. Texas Tech | 1/3 |
| T4. Mississippi St. | 58.1 | 62 at Southern Miss | 1/3 |
| T4. Georgia | 58.1 | 73 vs. Southern | 2/2 |
| 6. Auburn | 56.4 | 63 vs. Jacksonville St. | 2/2 |
| 7. South Carolina | 54.1 | 62 vs. North Carolina | 1/2/1 |
| T8. Ole Miss | 53.9 | 56 vs. Fresno State | 3/1 |
| T8. Vanderbilt | 53.9 | 60 vs. Western Ky. | 0/3/1 |
| 10. Florida | 53.0 | 54.5 vs. New Mexico St. | 2/2 |
| 11. Kentucky | 52.6 | 58 vs. La.-Lafayette | 1/3 |
| 12. LSU | 52.0# | 60.5 vs. McNeese St. | 2/1 |
| 13. Alabama | 51.6 | 56.5 vs. Middle Tenn. | 2/2 |
| 14. Missouri | 49.0 | 55 at Arkansas State | 0/4 |
#LSU entered the game against McNeese State as a 39-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening few plays, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
