So, I entered last week’s column confident that by lowering my prediction standards for players, I would get much closer in some of my predictions for statistical leaders.
The result? Two players I wrote would make the Week 6 leaderboard – South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley and Missouri wide receiver Emanuel Hall – were injured and did not even play.
As for the predictions of those who actually played, we had our moments (Jordan Ta’amu threw for 374 yards and I predicted 350; Nick Brossette had 2 rushing TDs as predicted). However, if I came up with the excuse that I threw darts at names on the wall with my eyes closed, that would at least explain how I was so far off (such as predicting Kalija Lipscomb would have 125 receiving yards and he finished with 16).
Since so much about sports is the ability to redeem oneself, I’m going to try to do that in Week 7.
Most Passing Yards
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (vs. Missouri)
Prediction: 325 yards
Why? In one of the more incredible statistics of the season, Tagovailoa has more 20-yard completions (28) than incompletions (25). He will be facing the team with the second-worst pass defense in the SEC in Missouri. And for those who want to say the Tigers’ ranking is so low because of one game against Purdue, when they allowed 572 passing yards, you’re right. But if Purdue’s David Blough can get 572 yards through the air on Missouri, how will the nation’s best QB this season fare Saturday?
2. Jordan Ta’amu, Ole Miss (at Arkansas)
Prediction: 310 yards
Why? The Rebels’ opponent Saturday, Arkansas, allowed 393 passing yards last week to Alabama. The Crimson Tide needed to throw the ball 18 times to get their yards. The guess here is that Ta’amu, who is throwing the ball more than 30 times a game (31.2), will put the ball in the air a lot more than Alabama’s QBs did last week.
3. Ty Storey, Arkansas (vs. Ole Miss)
Prediction: 280 yards
Why? Storey was a miserable 32-of-70 (46 percent) passing against Colorado State, Auburn and Texas A&M, but he turned it around with an impressive effort against Alabama – 25-of-39 (64 percent), 230 yards and 2 TD passes (1 INT). And the worst defense on the field in Little Rock Saturday will likely belong to the Rebels, since they are dead last in the SEC in rush defense, pass defense and total defense.
Most Passing TDs
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (vs. Missouri)
Prediction: 3
Why? Tagovailoa’s passing TD totals each game have gone as follows: 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4. So it stands to reason that he would have only 2 touchdown tosses against Missouri, right? Well, I’m going with a different stat for Tagovailoa: 18 TD passes in 6 games averages out to 3 per game.
2. Feleipe Franks, Florida (at Vanderbilt)
Prediction: 3
Why? Just wondering: How many people realize that only Tagovailoa has more TD passes in the SEC than Franks this season? Franks’ 13 TD passes are tied with Ta’amu for second most in the conference. And now that he’s done facing LSU’s tough defense, Franks gets to face Vanderbilt, which has allowed 10 TD passes this season, tied for second most in the SEC.
3. Jordan Ta’amu, Ole Miss (at Arkansas)
Prediction: 3
Why? Last year, Ta’amu’s first career start came against Arkansas, and the result was mixed to say the least. Ta’amu passed for 368 yards but also had an interception, a fumble on a QB-RB exchange and not a single TD pass as the Rebels blew a 24-point lead and lost 38-37 to the Razorbacks. I’m looking for redemption for Ta’amu Saturday. It also helps that he has some of the best receiving weapons in the SEC, if not the nation.
Most Rushing Yards
1. Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M (at South Carolina)
Prediction: 125 yards
Why? Williams is proving he can run on any defense in the nation not named Alabama or Clemson. He’s averaging 145 yards per game in his last two games, and South Carolina’s rushing defense is the second worst in the SEC, allowing 194 yards per game. Last week, the Gamecocks gave up 286 rushing yards to Missouri, a team that prefers to pass first.
2. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt (vs. Florida)
Prediction: 110 yards
Why? Exactly 20 percent of Vaughn’s carries this season (12 of 60) have gone for 10 or more yards. Why is that important? Because Florida has allowed 34 runs of 10-plus yards this season, 12th most in the SEC. Plus, in his last two games, Vaughn is averaging nearly 9 yards a carry (8.7), so he won’t need a lot of carries to get over the century mark.
3. Scottie Phillips, Ole Miss (at Arkansas)
Prediction: 100 yards
Why? Phillips had to open some eyes two weeks ago when he nearly reached the century mark in rushing yards at LSU, finishing with 96 on just 16 carries. And he won’t need too many carries to get to 100 yards, since he has yet to get 20 in a game this season. In fact, there are only two Power 5 players who have more than 600 yards rushing but fewer than 100 attempts: Clemson’s Travis Etienne and Phillips.
Most Rushing TDs
1. Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M (at South Carolina)
Prediction: 3
Why? Yes, Williams has just one 3-TD game rushing in his career, and that came against Northwestern State. But the Gamecocks’ rushing defense is struggling, having allowed at least 3 TDs in three of their last four games. Williams has a rushing TD in every game this season that doesn’t include Clemson or Alabama.
2. Nick Brossette, LSU (vs. Georgia)
Prediction: 2
Why? Yes, Georgia has one of the best defenses in the nation. But Brossette has proven he can get in the end zone on any team. He scored twice last week against Florida and scored two more TDs against Miami in the Tigers’ season opener.
3. Josh Jacobs, Alabama (vs. Missouri)
Prediction: 2
Why? Jacobs came into this season with 5 career touchdown runs. He’s already at 6 this season, having scored in five of his six games. He doesn’t get the ball much – 43rd in the SEC in rush attempts with 147 – but he’s efficient with his carries, ranking sixth in the conference in rushing TDs.
Most Receiving Yards
1. DaMarkus Lodge, Ole Miss (at Arkansas)
Prediction: 130 yards
Why? Lodge broke out in a major way last week, with his first 100-yard game and first TD of the season against UL Monroe (9 receptions, 179 yards, TD). And, while we mentioned earlier how Arkansas allowed 393 passing yards last week against Alabama, does anyone remember that the Razorbacks allowed 389 passing yards to Colorado State in Week 2?
2. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (vs. Missouri)
Prediction: 125 yards
Why? Before the season started, it was widely believed that the Rebels’ A.J. Brown was the best wide receiver in the SEC. By season’s end, that trophy could belong to Jeudy. The sophomore is averaging more than 24 yards a reception this season (24.3), so with so much talent in the Alabama offense, he doesn’t need a lot of catches to be dominating.
3. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina (vs. Texas A&M)
Prediction: 110 yards
Why? Samuel was very active early this season, with 20 receptions in his first three games. But the big-play capability wasn’t there, as he averaged just 7.3 yards per catch. However, in his last two games, Samuel is averaging nearly 25 yards a catch (24.8). I’m expecting those numbers to continue this week against a Texas A&M defense that is allowing an SEC-worst 8.6 yards per attempt.
Most Receiving TDs
1. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (vs. Missouri)
Prediction: 2
Why? With exactly 2 TD receptions in four of his six games this season, this seems like as safe a prediction as you can get these days in the SEC. And the Tigers have allowed 3 passing touchdowns in each of their last three games.
2. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina (vs. Texas A&M)
Prediction: 2
Why? Samuel had 6 TDs in three games last season before his season-ending ankle injury, so watching him get in the end zone multiple times wasn’t a problem at all. This season, he had just 1 touchdown in his first three games. But he has one in each of his last two games, and the next step toward Samuel truly being “back” is a multi-TD game. I’m predicting that will happen this weekend.
3. Kalija Lipscomb, Vanderbilt (vs. Florida)
Prediction: 2
Why? It won’t be easy for Lipscomb Saturday, especially facing a Florida team that has allowed just 3 passing TDs all season. But Lipscomb at home this season has 6 TD receptions in four games. I’m expecting more points in this game than most people think. That means a couple of touchdowns for Lipscomb.
Michael covers SEC football for Saturday Down South.
