Let’s start here: I cannot believe that we’ve already arrived at the final weekend of college football in the month of October. It seems absolutely inconceivable that 2 full months of the season are already in the books, yet here we are, not far off at all from when we need to really start thinking about positioning and potential seeding for the College Football Playoff.
Naturally, the SEC will of course be at the epicenter of all of these discussions. Last year, the Southeastern Conference put only 3 teams in the College Football Playoff field, a stunner for those who expected that the conference could potentially get 5, maybe even 6, teams in before the season began. What we didn’t see coming was that the dominance of the SEC would be upended by its depth, with upsets such as Vanderbilt over Alabama, Kentucky over Ole Miss, and Florida over LSU ultimately playing a role in why just 3 SEC teams made the inaugural 12-team Playoff.
To be honest, it feels like we may be heading toward a similar fate this year. Sure, right now, the SEC has 10 teams in the Top 25 and 7 in the Top 15, but that’s not going to stand. There are just too many matchups between ranked teams left on the schedule for all of these programs with postseason dreams to see those dreams come true. And this weekend is going to surely going to crush some dreams.
Last week, I broke down each matchup on the SEC slate before ultimately deciding on the 4 games that would make up my weekend parlay. Not only was this exercise fun, but it was also informative and helpful, and I’m confident that this week, it will prove to be profitable as well.
As always, all betting lines are provided by BetMGM.
Alabama money line (-450) over South Carolina
The Tide are favored by 11.5 points at South Carolina, and that number scares me as much as Michael Myers scares the residents of Haddonfield, Illinois. But with that said, I’m not prepared to back the Gamecocks either, because going against Alabama scares me as much as Jason Vorhees scares the counselors at Camp Crystal Lake. So instead, I’m tossing Alabama’s money line into the parlay and avoiding any pre-Halloween frights.
Ole Miss +5.5 (-115) over Oklahoma
With total confidence, I can tell you I’ll be staying away from this one. I worry that the Rebels’ bubble burst with their loss to Georgia last week, but at the same time, John Mateer will only be 31 days removed from surgery on his broken right hand at kickoff. This one is agonizing and I suggest you don’t touch it.
Arkansas -2.5 (-110) over Auburn
Do you think Hugh Freeze is already perusing Indeed and LinkedIn to find his next job? If he hasn’t, he might want to start, because after the Razorbacks win this one, that might be it for Hugh.
Vanderbilt -2.5 (-115) over Missouri
If you read my Week 8 awards column, you’ll know I’m all in on Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores. I think this is more than just a fun story and a Heisman candidate… Vandy has looked like it belongs among the top dogs in the SEC, even in a loss to Alabama a couple of weeks back.
With that said, Missouri put up an admirable effort versus the Crimson Tide as well, so I don’t necessarily think Vandy is going to boat race Mizzou on Saturday afternoon. But 2.5 points is a palatable enough number for me to feel confident in locking in Vanderbilt this weekend.
LSU +2.5 (-105) over Texas A&M
Treat this game like a haunted house — and not a haunted house where paid employees are hiding around every corner and relishing the opportunity to bombard you with a flurry of jump scares, but a real haunted house that you should probably not enter unless you’re accompanied by a ghost hunter or a priest. Just stay away.
Mississippi State +7 (-110) over Texas / Kentucky +8.5 (-110) over Tennessee
Each of these lines feel a smidge too high considering how shaky Texas and Tennessee have both looked at times this year, and how competent Mississippi State and Kentucky have been at home vs. ranked opponents. I felt going into this exercise that either the Bulldogs or Wildcats would end up making the final parlay, but as I’m typing this sentence, I’m still unsure.
The Picks
This weekend we’re going to rock with the Alabama money line for our first leg, and we’re going to follow that up with Arkansas -2.5 over Auburn in leg 2. Vanderbilt at -2.5 against Missouri might be my favorite bet of the week, so consider that leg 3. And finally for leg 4, I’m giving the edge to Kentucky +8.5 over Tennessee instead of Mississippi State +7 over Texas. If you’re feeling bold, toss them both in there and make it a 5-leg parlay.
Total: +732
