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Tennessee will be hoping to bounce back from a big loss over the weekend against Arkansas in Fayetteville on Wednesday night.Â
The Vols are still in SEC title contention for now, but can’t afford another defeat in conference play. They will face an Arkansas team that has won 2 of its last 3 games entering Wednesday night’s contest.
Let’s break down this matchup between Tennessee and Arkansas:Â
Tennessee vs. Arkansas Betting Odds
Spread: Tennessee -8.5 (DraftKings)
Total: Over/Under 150.5 points (DraftKings)
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Betting trends to know for Tennessee
Tennessee is…
- 10-12-1 against the spread
- 2-5 against the spread on the road
- 9-9-1 against the spread as a favorite
- 1-4 against the spread as a road favorite
- 6-6-1 when favored by 7 or more points
Betting trends to know for Arkansas
Arkansas is…
- 6-17 against the spread
- 5-8 against the spread at home
- 3-8 against the spread as an underdog
- 2-2 against the spread as a home underdog
- 2-8 against the spread in SEC games
3 notes for the game
Tennessee is coming off of a brutal loss
The Vols got blasted by Texas A&M on the road in their last game. Tennessee was on the wrong end of an outlier offensive performance by the Aggies (53% from the field and 39% from 3-point range) and got obliterated on the glass (including 9 offensive rebounds by Anderrson Garcia).
With that loss in mind, this could be a good time to buy Tennessee. The Vols have been excellent overall this season and were dominant as recently as less than a couple weeks ago in a win over Kentucky in Lexington.
Aside from a couple of stinkers (Texas A&M and South Carolina), Tennessee has been pretty solid this year on both ends of the floor. The Vols are now entering a soft spot in their schedule where they face 3 consecutive teams ranked outside of the top 100 nationally, per KenPom.
Arkansas has been better lately, but against bad teams
The Razorbacks are in the midst of a disaster season, but have been playing a little better offensively of late. They’ve now won 2 of their last 3 games after they initially fell to 1-6 in SEC play. Their wins, however, have come against lowly SEC opponents in Georgia and Missouri.Â
Arkansas has not performed well at all this season against NCAA Tournament-quality opposition. The Razorbacks are 2-8 against teams who are currently ranked inside of KenPom’s top 80 teams entering Wednesday’s slate. Those wins came against Duke (back in November) and against Texas A&M nearly a month ago.
Arkansas’ ShotQuality metrics are roughly in-line with KenPom’s efficiency numbers. The Hogs aren’t particularly effective on either side of the floor. Offensively, Arkansas has a rim & 3 rate of just 76%, which ranks outside of the top-300 nationally per ShotQuality.
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Arkansas does have an edge at the FT line
Arkansas does have a window into staying involved in this game: the free throw line. The Razorbacks have a free throw rate of 45.7%, which is the best of any Power-6 program in the country so far this season, per KenPom. Nearly 25% of Arkansas’ points so far this season have come at the free throw line, which is good for 9th nationally.Â
Khalif Battle and Tramon Mark have both taken over 100 free throw attempts so far this season. However, it’s worth noting that Battle’s status in Arkansas’ rotation is a bit uncertain — he’s played just 12 total minutes on the Hogs’ last 2 games. Seven other Razorbacks have at least 30 trips to the charity stripe in 2023-24. Trevon Brazile, who is 4th on the team with 53 free throw attempts, has missed the team’s last 4 games with knee soreness.
Arkansas’ penchant for getting to the foul line could be a problem for Tennessee. Sending opponents to the free throw line has been an issue for UT at times this season as the Vols’ defense has a free throw rate of 36.7%, which ranks No. 276 nationally. Tennessee conceded 25 free throws to Texas A&M, 22 to LSU, 24 to Alabama, 25 to Florida and 27 to Mississippi State, for example. Arkansas ranks outside of the top 200 nationally in effective field goal percentage, so limiting the Hogs’ trips to the foul line should be priority No. 1 for Tennessee.
1 pick for this game
Dalton Knecht over 22.5 points (-125). Knecth is 1 of 4 SEC players who average at least 19 points per game. Arkansas has played 2 of the other 3 so far this season. The Hogs let Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor score 41 points and conceded 24 points to Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves. Knecht is averaging more than 28 points per game over his last 9 contests and has cleared 23 points in 7 of those outings. Given Arkansas’ struggles defensively vs. top scorers and Knecht’s remarkable run of consistency, this seems like a relatively safe pick.Â
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
