Thursday Thoughts: Could Lincoln Riley end up at Texas? Is this a must-win for Mizzou?
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The Week 9 slate of college football looks a little lacking compared to recent weeks.
What does that mean? It means buckle up, folks, because things are likely about to get even crazier.
Just when you think you have this silly, beautiful sport figured out, it throws something your way you never see coming. So even with a pared-down 5-game slate in the SEC, don’t close your eyes. Something wild will happen.
Let’s break down 5 things we’re interested in this weekend:
1. Mizzou is 5-2. Why does this weekend feel like a must-win for the Tigers?
The Missouri Tigers are currently 5-2 overall with a 3-2 mark in SEC play. But Eli Drinkwitz‘s team is 0-2 on the road in SEC action, losing at Mississippi State (with a healthy Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell) and got blown out at Ole Miss.
Is the state of Mississippi the problem? Or is this a deeper road issue for the Tigers? That’s what we’ll find out this weekend in Fayetteville. Arkansas is the second-worst SEC team in my latest power rankings, so this should be an easy win. Right?
The Tigers really need it to be, because the stretch run is tough. Following this weekend’s trip to Arkansas, Mizzou has this in front of it still: vs. Texas, at Georgia, vs. Kentucky and vs. Oklahoma.
First, the good news — the Tigers are undefeated at home this season and still have 3 home games left. However, all 3 of those home games are tough. Even if Texas isn’t the juggernaut it appeared in the preseason, Kentucky now looks much tougher than it did before the year started. A road trip to Georgia is absolutely brutal. And Oklahoma’s defense is no easy task.
If the Tigers lose in upset fashion in Fayetteville on Saturday, all of a sudden, even reaching 6 wins will look daunting.
2. What if Lincoln Riley ended up at Texas?
I’m going to acknowledge straight off the bat here that this is a far-fetched hypothetical scenario. But entertain me for a second.
What if Texas loses a couple more games down the stretch of the season and the Longhorns’ administration decides it has had its fill of Steve Sarkisian? Or what if Sark grows frustrated and finally entertains those NFL rumors in a serious way?
In either of those scenarios, the Longhorns would have the highest-profile job opening in the nation.
Meanwhile, out west, things aren’t exactly going swimmingly for Lincoln Riley at USC. Sure, the Trojans are 6-2 right now, but last weekend’s loss at Wisconsin in which they only managed 7 points was brutal.
USC’s remaining schedule looks like this: vs. Ohio State, at Indiana, vs. Maryland and at UCLA (no Notre Dame, sadly). That’s pretty rough.
If the Trojans even lose 1 of those games, they’re in Playoff peril. Lose 2 and you can kiss CFP hopes goodbye.
Riley was born in Texas. He’s had success in the region before, leading Oklahoma to 3 Playoff appearances (and going 0-3 in the process) and producing 2 Heisman Trophy winners.
It’s not looking like it’s going to be a robust coaching market with several elite candidates. Riley could be the best of the bunch.
He’s already loathed in Norman. Why not add even more fuel to the fire?
3. UCLA is about to be 8-0
It’s a 2-horse race for every National Coach of the Year award in college football this year. Will Stein of the Kentucky Wildcats is in one corner. Bob Chesney of the UCLA Bruins is in the other.
Considering UCLA lost QB1 Nico Iamaleava for the year to injury and still beat Oregon (and Wisconsin and Michigan State in the weeks since), this team is for real. And the Bruins host Nevada this week in an oddly timed nonconference game.
From there, UCLA has at Minnesota, vs. Illinois, at Michigan and vs. USC remaining. Could the Bruins go 2-2 or better in that stretch? It won’t be easy, but it’s certainly manageable.
I think we’re looking at a College Football Playoff team here, folks.
Incredible work by Chesney.
Curt Cignetti and now Bob Chesney. Maybe big schools looking for an instant turnaround should just hire whoever the current James Madison head coach is.
Checks James Madison’s website.
Oh.
4. We aren’t talking about Wake Forest enough
The ACC has been largely disappointing behind No. 1 Miami, but not entirely disappointing. Jake Dickert is doing some great work at Wake Forest, and it is going underappreciated.
There’s a case to be made that College GameDay should’ve gone to Wake Forest this weekend for the Demon Deacons’ showdown against Virginia instead of to the Indiana-Minnesota matchup. The ESPN pregame show has only been to Winston-Salem once… in 2020.
As you’ll recall, that was the COVID year, so no fans were able to attend. Talk about a tease.
The Demon Deacons visit SMU in a couple of weeks. That game could decide the second spot in the ACC Championship Game alongside Miami. What a great accomplishment that would be for Wake Forest. Things are looking up in Winston-Salem!
5. Ranking the 5 SEC games this weekend
Thanks to 6 byes and no nonconference games this weekend, there are exactly 5 SEC-on-SEC matchups on the slate for Halloween. My colleague Joe Cox does a good job rating each game on a scale from 1 to 5 stars in his SEC Viewer’s Guide each week, but I’ll just go ahead and give my rankings for each game in order:
- Florida vs. Georgia (in Atlanta) — This is still the top pick for the weekend, despite the fact that it loses a couple of points for being in Atlanta instead of Jacksonville. The Cocktail Party is still the Cocktail Party.
- South Carolina at Oklahoma — No team is better at playing its best football right when the season looks lost. Imagine if South Carolina could channel that energy to start SEC play? Oklahoma beat Mississippi State by 8 last week despite the Bulldogs playing with a backup quarterback for nearly the entire game. The Sooners better watch out. This is a red-hot Gamecocks team right now.
- Auburn at Ole Miss — Which Auburn team will show up — the one that beat Georgia at Sanford Stadium, or the one that got blown out at home by LSU last week? Ole Miss has its back against the wall and can’t afford to lose this game if it wants to make the Playoff. Sign me up.
- Mizzou at Arkansas — Even I, a big-time Mizzou homer, can’t justify putting the Battle Line Rivalry any higher than No. 4 this week. Mizzou has been bad away from home. Arkansas picked up its first win in SEC play under Ryan Silverfield a couple of weeks ago. They’re both coming off a bye week. That’s enough to give it the bump over No. 5 on the list, at least.
- Mississippi State at Texas — This would’ve been in contention for the No. 1 spot if it had happened in September. But now Texas has 2 losses and Mississippi State is without star QB Kamario Taylor. That’s no fun.
We’ll see if those rankings are in line with how Joe sees this week’s slate stacking up in his Friday column. Stay tuned!
Subscribe to the Saturday Football Newsletter — Get the latest news and updates on your team, your conference, and the college football nation straight to your inbox.
Having trouble seeing the signup form? Some privacy or ad-blocking tools can prevent it from loading. You can subscribe directly here.
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
