Vanderbilt will make the trip to Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon as it looks for its second-consecutive win over the Crimson Tide.
The Commodores haven’t beaten Alabama on the road since 1984, but that won’t stop Diego Pavia from trying for a second-straight stunner. Although both teams are ranked in the top-25 this week, Alabama is once again a big favorite according to the latest college football betting lines.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama odds
Here’s a look at the up-to-date spread, total and money line markets for this game.
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
Vanderbilt fact sheet
- Diego Pavia has been unbelievable in Vanderbilt’s 5-0 start. He’s 8th nationally in passer efficiency rating and is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt, which would represent a career high by a significant margin.
- Vanderbilt is passing much more often this season despite virtually every game being a blowout. The Commodores have a pass play rate just over 46% this year. Last season, that number was 41%.
- Vanderbilt has been one of the best teams in the entire country on third down. The Commodores have converted 61% of third-down attempts this year, which ranks 4th nationally.
- However, Vanderbilt has also avoided third downs as well as any power-conference team in the country. The Commodores have just 46 third-down attempts this season, which is tied for the sixth-fewest in FBS.
- Second down is where Vanderbilt has really dominated so far this year. It has run 105 plays on second down and 51 times has earned a new set of downs. That’s a rate of 48.6%, which ranks second nationally behind only Ohio State through Week 5.
- Sedrick Alexander is Vandy’s lead running back, although it’s worth noting he already has a couple of fumbles this year.
- Tight end Eli Stowers is Vanderbilt’s top option in the passing game. However, Tre Richardson and Junior Sherrill also have more than 20 targets each this season. Sherrill has scored 5 touchdowns, which leads the team.
- Defensively, Vanderbilt’s strength is against the run. The Commodores are 6th nationally in rush defense EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper.
- Vandy’s secondary has been less effective. The Commodores rank 67th in pass defense efficiency.
- Four of Vanderbilt’s top 5 highest-graded players this season are defensive linemen, per PFF (2 edge rushers and 2 interior linemen).
- Vanderbilt has not had much consistency at the cornerback position this year. Six different corners have played at least 60 snaps so far, per PFF. The highest-graded is Jordan Matthews, who has allowed 7 catches for 49 yards on 9 targets.
Alabama fact sheet
- Since a season-opening loss to Florida State, Alabama has been nearly perfect. The Crimson Tide earned blowout wins over ULM and Wisconsin before winning on the road against Georgia in Week 5.
- However, that victory in Athens may be a bit misleading. Alabama didn’t score in the second half and left with a postgame win expectancy of just 19.6%, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Alabama was out-gained by Georgia by 1.5 yards per play, but went 13-of-19 on third down.
- Alabama’s passing attack, led by Ty Simpson, is elite. The Tide rank 10th nationally in both passing success rate and EPA-per-pass, according to Game on Paper.
- Alabama’s rushing game is a massive weakness. The Tide are 130th in the country in rushing success rate. Starting running back Jam Miller made his season debut on Saturday vs. Georgia and carried the ball 16 times for 46 yards.
- Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams are Alabama’s top receivers. Isaiah Horton has also emerged as a dependable option as he’s caught 14 of 18 targets this year.
- Defensively, Alabama’s secondary is strong. The Crimson Tide rank 27th in pass defense success rate even though they’ve faced multiple efficient passing offenses already this year.
- Domani Jackson appears to be Alabama’s best cornerback. He’s only been targeted 4 times in 83 coverage snaps this year, per PFF.
- Alabama’s rush defense hasn’t been quite as effective. The Tide are 67th in EPA-per-rush allowed. Georgia moved the ball at-will on the ground against the Tide — Chauncey Bowens averaged almost 10 yards per attempt. Nate Frazier was over 7 yards per rush. Dillon Bell had a 41-yard carry. This is a weakness for Alabama.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama picks
I like Ty Simpson and the Alabama offense in this game. Vanderbilt’s defense has been quietly pretty mediocre against a bad schedule of opposing offenses. Meanwhile, Ty Simpson has been extremely efficient in home games where he can easily make decisions at the line of scrimmage. Simpson’s ability to get Alabama into good plays after getting a look at the opposing defense is something Kirby Smart talked about this week. Simpson averaged over 13 yards per attempt in his previous home games against ULM and Wisconsin. Vanderbilt’s defense is better than Monroe’s, but there’s not much evidence to say it’s better than Wisconsin’s.
Pick: Alabama team total over 33.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
Vanderbilt has been a bit of a slow starter throughout this run with Diego Pavia, even dating back to last season. In 2024, the Commodores had a +1 point differential in the first half against power-conference opponents. So far this year, despite a 5-0 start (with 3 power-conference wins), Vandy is -3 in the first half. The opposite has been the case for Alabama. The Crimson Tide were +70 in the first half last season (3rd in the SEC) and are tied for the league lead so far in that category this year at +21.
Pick: Alabama -3.5 in the first quarter (-110 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
