Week 1 college football picks: Predictions for Texas-Ohio State, Clemson-LSU and more
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Week 1 of the college football season is here.
If you’re not in a legal sports betting state, fear not — prediction markets like Kalshi will allow you to potentially profit from your Week 1 predictions.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi is legal in all 50 U.S. States. Right now, new users can get an exclusive $10 bonus offer via Saturday Down South after signing up with Kalshi.
Here’s how Kalshi works: Users can make predictions on the platform by purchasing “contracts” that pay out at a rate of $1 per contract if the pick is successful. Users are also able to sell their already-purchased contracts (as long as the market has not yet settled) for the current market rate.
SEC Week 1 predictions on Kalshi
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of what Kalshi has to offer from the SEC slate in Week 1.
Texas at Ohio State prediction
In a battle between 2 blue bloods with virtually zero QB experience between them, I see an edge with the home team. In addition to having home field advantage, the Buckeyes also have the best player on the field in Jeremiah Smith. Texas has a star-studded defense, but the Longhorns lost cornerback Jahdae Barron to the draft this offseason and that CB room may not be equipped to deal with Smith. I’m taking Ohio State to win outright at odds roughly equivalent to -126 — slightly better than you may find at traditional sportsbooks. (Tip: In Kalshi’s settings you can have prices automatically converted to American odds.)
Pick: Ohio State to win outright (54 cents per contract on Kalshi)
LSU at Clemson prediction
I prefer the total to the side and money line markets in this game. Kalshi just recently began allowing users to place predictions on spreads and totals, so this is still a relatively new feature that seems to be a little bit less liquid than their outright winner markets (at least for now). I like under 57.5 for a few reasons.
For one, I’m not sure Blake Baker has been given enough credit for his Year 1 turnaround on defense in Baton Rouge. Per Game on Paper, LSU’s EPA-per-play defense went from 130th in 2023 to 78th in 2024. That’s not perfect but it is a pretty significant jump and I think the Tigers will be even better on that end this fall.
I also think there’s an opportunity to fade both of these Heisman-hopeful quarterbacks — particularly Cade Klubnik. Last season Klubnik faced 7 defenses that weren’t abject disasters (better than 5.75 yards per play, let’s say). Clemson went 3-4 in those games (Georgia, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pitt, South Carolina, SMU and Texas) and averaged just 6.24 yards per attempt. His deep passing game was much less impactful in those games. He completed a combined 23 passes for 20+ yards across those 7 contests. In his other 7 games last season, he had 31 such completions. In terms of explosive play rate (where an explosive is defined as a 20+ yard pass) Klubnik’s rate was 8.2% vs. the defenses mentioned above and 15.1% against everyone else. This is the profile of a quarterback I’m looking to fade against elite competition.
Pick: Clemson vs. LSU under 57.5 points (52 cents per contract on Kalshi)
Alabama at Florida State prediction
I’ve been in on Alabama for most of the offseason, taking them to win the national title in a previous Kalshi prediction post. I think the Crimson Tide handily take care of business here against a Florida State team that seemingly has never recovered from being snubbed from the Playoff at the end of the 2023 season.
The consensus spread for this game is Alabama -13.5. On Kalshi, you can buy a couple of points on the spread for a pretty reasonable price in most cases. I think there’s real blowout potential in this game, so I’m going to take the Crimson Tide at -15.5.
Pick: Alabama -15.5 (62 cents per contract on Kalshi)
Rest of the SEC vs. FBS games for Week 1
Kalshi has games posted for virtually the entire SEC slate, save for teams who are facing FCS opposition in Week 1.
Here’s what the market looks like for the SEC’s other games against power-conference competition in Week 1:
Auburn at Baylor
Auburn price: 56 cents per contract
Baylor contract: 46 cents per contract
This is one of several games that could be impacted by the ongoing YouTube/FOX carriage dispute. Here’s a 30-day free trial for FuboTV!
Syracuse vs. Tennessee
Syracuse price: 18 cents per contract
Tennessee price: 85 cents per contract
Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
Virginia Tech price: 28 cents per contract
South Carolina price: 75 cents per contract
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
