What to expect from College Football Playoff selection committee rankings
By Alex Zorn
Published:
With just three weeks of football left until the conference championships, the next set of playoff rankings will come out in just a few hours, as the committee continues on the path of ultimately selecting the final four for the 2015 College Football Playoff.
Here’s a primer on what to expect when the second week of rankings are released tonight (7 p.m., Eastern, ESPN). After four undefeated teams fell Saturday, expect the committee to shuffle teams around quite a bit.
- 1. Clemson (last week: 1)
- 2. Alabama (4)
- 3. Ohio State (3)
- 4. Baylor (5)
- 5. Oklahoma State (14)
- 6. Notre Dame (5)
- 7. LSU (2)
- 8. Iowa (9)
- 9. Florida (10)
- 10. Stanford (11)
The 12-member selection committee’s final pairings will be released Sunday, Dec. 6 at noon Eastern, with the five most likely points of emphasis for the next five weeks listed below:
- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition
- Comparing results against common opponents
- Relative factors that may have altered a team’s performance (injuries)
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP POTENTIAL
Picking four conference champions from the Power 5 conferences (SEC, Pac-12, Big 10, Big 12, and the ACC) is almost always everyone’s first method of selection, but with Stanford (Pac-12 leader) and Alabama (SEC leader) both with one loss that’s looking like a potentially controversial pick in the end. And that’s not even including Notre Dame (one loss) or Houston (undefeated).
If/when the undefeated teams start losing (Ohio State, Iowa, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Clemson, and Houston) it will become a question of which conference is stronger as no one’s play to the title looks guaranteed (except for maybe Clemson).
With the committee’s less than well-received pick of Alabama in the top four last week, it leaves me to believe the committee will favor the SEC in this scenario.
Who it Helps: Ohio State , Oklahoma State or Baylor, Alabama, and Clemson.
Who it Hurts: Stanford, Utah, Notre Dame, Houston.
Takeaways: Assuming one of the Big Ten and Big 12 champions, and Clemson go undefeated, a one-loss SEC champion would be tough for the committee to kick out, but if Alabama, Stanford, Notre Dame all finish with one loss, which one gets picked?
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
After so many unbeatens fell last week, the committee will have to factor in a timeless tool of the BCS era, the strength of schedule. If the committee took the four best teams every year, then they would be hard-pressed not to include at least two teams from the loaded SEC West this season. Think of what Mississippi State or LSU could be in the Pac-12 or ACC. Vying for one of the four spots, that’s for sure.
Who it helps: SEC teams.
Who it hurts: Ohio State, Iowa, Baylor, mid-majors.
Takeaway: No. 1 Ohio State has yet to play a Top 25 ranked team, whereas Alabama has played more ranked opponents, five, than unranked opponents, four. A loss in the SEC this season simply has more value than one in the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, or ACC. An undefeated Big 12 team will look as good as anybody if they can come out of the final month of season alive.
HEAD-TO-HEAD OUTCOMES
Every few weeks of the season there’s a Top-10 vs. Top-10 matchup that shakes up the rest of the board, but college football’s had its fair share of heavyweights already this fall, including a huge No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 2, last week that may have decided which one’s going to the Playoff.
Non-conference showdowns featuring nationally-ranked competition often provide fans a glimpse as to which or the stronger conferences, and which teams teams have benefitted from weak competition. Winning those “spotlight” games gives the better team a significant edge in terms of comparative strength at the end of the season.
Who it helps: Clemson, Oklahoma, Utah, Oklahoma State, Alabama.
Who it hurts: TCU, Iowa, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Houston.
Takeaways: Houston and Iowa may need some serious help if this is the determining factor for the committee. Though Iowa will hopefully play No. 3 Ohio State in the conference championship at the end of the month, the Cougars will have no such game to prove their worth on the big stage.
COMMON OPPONENT RESULTS
Determining team strength and strength of schedule of all 25 ranked teams can make your head spin, but it’s much easier to interpret when breaking it down logically. Utah (7-1) had been the Pac-12’s highest ranked team since Week 6, but after losing 42-24 to a USC team that Stanford (7-1) beat 41-31 in Week 3 they dropped behind the Cardinal before this week. Despite sharing the same record, No. 8 Stanford sits well ahead of No. 13 Utah after beating a common opponent.
The Florida Gators could be in a very interesting position if they can somehow pull out a win against Alabama in the SEC Championship as they along with the LSU Tigers will be the only one loss teams in the conference at that point, LSU having lost to Alabama and the Gators having lost to LSU.
Who it helps: Stanford, Clemson, Ole Miss.
Who it hurts: Utah, Florida, Alabama.
Takeaways: If the Crimson Tide lose another game this season, things could get very interesting in the SEC, including a the possibility of not sending a single team to the Playoff.
RELEVANT FACTORS INCLUDING INJURIES
The least predictable factor used to determine CFP participants is injuries. Selection committee members could theoretically throw out a one-loss team’s only blemish if a key player did not play. On that same note, an injury to a star player can effectively eliminate a team’s chances of making the playoff.
Who it helps: Ohio State, Florida State, Stanford, Notre Dame, Florida.
Who it hurts: Baylor, Georgia.
Takeaways: The two most significant injuries this season have been to Georgia RB Nick Chubb and Baylor QB Seth Russell. Georgia no longer is a factor, but No. 2 Baylor lost its starting quarterback for the season.
Ohio State survived a similar situation last season, but with three consecutive games against Top 15 opponents to end November it’s hard to see Baylor coming out of the Big 12 anymore.
After losing starting QB Will Grier for the season due to suspension, the Gators lost to LSU the following week. If that remains their only loss, the committee may give them the benefit of the doubt over others.
FINAL VERDICT
With a very clear idea of who the top four conference champions are at the moment, the committee will have a pretty easy time picking the top four teams this week despite so much shake up among the undefeated. Ohio State, Baylor, Alabama, and Clemson looks a pretty likely top four right now.
- Clemson (0-0)
- Alabama (8-1)
- Ohio State (9-0)
- Baylor (8-0)
The question becomes which team makes it between Oklahoma State and Baylor , but with a matchup between the two teams in less than two weeks there’s no reason to dwell on the thought.
Parting thought: Just one of the top 4 teams in the first rankings last season made the playoff and Ohio State opened last year at No. 16. We’ve got a long way to go and a lot of football still to be played.
