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We started negative.
Yesterday, we broke down which SEC teams are the most likely to endure a multi-win regression. Negative? Yeah, but it’s reality. Last year, 5 SEC teams had multi-win regressions.
So today, we’re positive. A multi-win progression was in the cards for Arkansas (+3), Florida (+3), South Carolina (+4) and Vanderbilt (+5). It’ll likely be in the cards for a slew of others in 2025.
Most likely SEC teams to improve win total in 2025
These are the 4 SEC teams these are most likely to see a multi-win progression in 2025:
Oklahoma
There’s a feeling externally that Brent Venables is facing immense pressure to be in this camp by season’s end or else he’ll be fired, and understandably so. The Sooners endured 2 losing seasons in 3 years for the first time in the 21st century. Venables also has a $35 million buyout if he’s fired at season’s end, so the notion that Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione will hold Venables to the same standard as the outside world remains to be seen.
To Venables’ credit, he made moves to suggest he understands the sense of urgency. The Washington State-to-Oklahoma migration of OC Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer could define Venables’ tenure in Norman. Fortunately for the Sooners, there’s no world in which it can be as bad as it was in 2024 when they averaged 16.5 points per SEC game. That was the byproduct of an entirely new offensive line lacking continuity — it started 8 different units — and OU’s top 5 receivers all going down with injuries before the calendar turned to October.
In addition to some inevitable offensive progression, OU is still loaded defensively even in a post-Danny Stutsman/Billy Bowman world. Kip Lewis and the Bowen brothers (Peyton and Eli) should lead one of the SEC’s better defenses. That unit was the only reason that OU got to a bowl game in Year 1 in the SEC.
In Year 2 in the SEC, the climb is still steep. After all, OU is just 70-to-1 to win a national title. But posting an 8-win season at a place that had a 22-year streak of 8-win seasons doesn’t seem like too ambitious of a projection in Year 4 of the Venables era.
Auburn
If I had told Auburn fans that the first 4 years of the post-Gus Malzahn era would all be losing seasons, they would’ve either laughed or cried. That’s reality.
The reality is also that if Hugh Freeze doesn’t figure it out in Year 3, he won’t get a Year 4. The only way he gets that is if the Tigers finish in the “multi-win progression” group by season’s end. How do they get there? By getting the quarterback situation right. A new quarterback room — with transfers Jackson Arnold and Ashton Daniels with 5-star freshman Deuce Knight — should be an upgrade.
The Tigers have one of their most talented receiver rooms ever, headlined by second-year star Cam Coleman and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton. That group should allow Freeze to run the type of offense that he envisioned when he got the job. Of course, Auburn won’t see an improvement if Freeze’s play-calling remains an issue, and it can’t afford to fall off a cliff defensively. The latter isn’t as much of a concern with Keldric Faulk, who led a young, promising unit that finished in the top 1/4 in FBS in scoring defense and yards/play allowed in 2024.
For a team that went 1-5 in games decided by 10 points or less, the Tigers have no excuse but to make a significant jump in 2025.
Alabama
Is it ambitious to call for a 9-win team to improve by multiple games? Perhaps. But the Ryan Grubb hire made that a possibility. His reunion with Kalen DeBoer could be the difference in Alabama being a national title contender. This offense was begging for Grubb to step in as the play-caller after a 2024 season in which the Jalen Milroe-Nick Sheridan relationship never really settled into the ideal vision of the DeBoer offense. Even with a new starting quarterback, that has to (and should) change with Grubb on board.
Let’s also remember that the Tide return a wealth of production from a top-10 scoring defense (it was the Tide’s best statistical unit since 2017). LT Overton, Deontae Lawson, Domani Jackson and Keon Sabb are all back to lead a group that was the most steadying force post-Vanderbilt loss. Does it still have questions to answer? Absolutely. Sure. There’s a bad taste in the Tide’s mouth that was left by Oklahoma’s run-game domination, which ultimately kept Alabama out of the Playoff.
But remember that a multi-win progression means getting to 11 wins by season’s end. That’s obviously hitting the over on 9.5 regular-season wins (via DraftKings), plus winning a postseason game. DeBoer’s had nothing but multi-win progressions in Year 2 as a college head coach. Even with 3 road games vs. teams that finished with 9-plus wins, Alabama should have all the opportunity to move past a disappointing Year 1 of the post-Nick Saban era.
LSU
Speaking of 9-win teams that watched Playoff hopes die in 2024, LSU reaching less than 11 wins by season’s end would be a disappointment in Year 4 of the Brian Kelly era. This roster, even though it likely won’t earn a preseason top-5 ranking like the 2023 squad did, has fewer excuses. Kelly has Year 2 of his $2.5 million defensive coordinator Blake Baker, he has a pair of game-wreckers in the middle of that defense with Harold Perkins Jr. and Whit Weeks both back, he has 1 of the 5 best returning quarterbacks in the sport in Garrett Nussmeier and unlike in 2024, he has a portal class that’s loaded with Day-1 starters (don’t sleep on Oklahoma transfer Nic Anderson leading the SEC in receiving).
What’s not to like? Perhaps that offensive line in a post-Will Campbell/Emery Jones Jr. world could be a concern, but that’s Kelly’s most proven area of expertise from a developmental standpoint. It won’t be a picnic of a schedule, especially with a trip to Clemson to open the season, but after that, LSU doesn’t have a game against any other 2024 Playoff team.
That’s ideal. Also ideal is the fact that from 2017-23, Kelly had a 10-win floor every season. A 10-2 regular season with a first-round Playoff victory should be the expectation for this LSU team.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
