The first round of the 2026 NFL Draft is finally upon us. After spending the last 3 months asking nonstop questions about who will do what, who will be picked where, and what will happen in the first round, we are finally due some hard answers.
Festivities get underway in Pittsburgh beginning at 8 p.m. ET.
Kalshi prediction markets for the 2026 NFL Draft
Here’s where I’d look to trade ahead of the first round.
Arvell Reese not drafted in the top 3
This is about leverage and value. Reese, the versatile defender out of Ohio State, was penciled in as the No. 2 pick in the draft months ago. However, as the draft has inched closer, the New York Jets have been linked to Texas Tech edge David Bailey seemingly more and more each day.
On Wednesday, the eve of the first round, ESPN’s Matt Miller published his final mock draft. That projection had Reese going third to the Arizona Cardinals, but Miller talked more about Jeremiyah Love than he did about Reese.
Here’s what Miller wrote:
The Love buzz has persisted for a few weeks, with the belief that Arizona really likes him. But the Cardinals could be looking to drum up trade interest, too, with either Love or Reese as a catalyst. The draft, in a way, starts at No. 3. And some teams are wondering if Arizona is bluffing on the Love pick when edge rusher and offensive tackle are such obvious needs.
Particularly when the draft moves from days away to hours away, bad info takes over the airwaves. Teams put up smokescreens. But there is so much Love chatter coming from so many places. Love, the dynamic tailback from Notre Dame, has now been linked to the Cardinals, the Tennessee Titans (No. 4), the New York Giants (No. 5), and the Washington Commanders (No. 7).
Would Washington offer anything to move up and get Love? A backfield partnership between Jayden Daniels and Love would be remarkable. Or does Arizona simply draft him outright because he’s the best talent in the class?
If Tennessee — the team that has been most often linked to Love — gets antsy, would the Titans try and swap spots with the Cardinals to get their guy?
At Kalshi, Reese being drafted outside the top 3 is trading for 23 cents per contract. Take a swing on that; the Love chatter is simply too prevalent right now to think it’s posturing. There’s a better than 23% chance someone takes the plunge to go get him.
Fewer than 5 wide receivers drafted in the first round
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has 18 wide receivers in his Top 100 rankings. The Ringer’s Todd McShay has 17 in his top 100. Over the last 5 NFL Drafts, 15 receivers have been taken in the first 3 rounds on average. This is viewed as a stronger-than-average class for receivers, and that leads me to believe most teams might consider waiting on a receiver until the middle rounds in order to prioritize filling a need at a position with less depth.
There are 3 clear-cut first-round receivers. You know their names. Carnell Tate from Ohio State, Jordyn Tyson from Arizona State, and Makai Lemon from USC. There’s some debate about who will go first between Tate and Tyson, but there are precious few prognosticators who have a different top 3.
After that trio, there’s not much of a consensus on who the fourth receiver taken will be. Why spend a first-round pick on a receiver when you can get Ted Hurst or Bryce Lance in the third? Asset management is a big part of the back half of the first round. Denzel Boston or KC Concepcion might make their way into the first round, but I think the ceiling is 4 here.
At Kalshi, fewer than 5 first-round receivers is trading for 23 cents per contract.
Arizona to draft Ty Simpson
There had been buzz that the Los Angeles Rams were interested in drafting Simpson, the Alabama starter for a single season, as their heir apparent to Matthew Stafford. But the trade for Trent McDuffie took that possibility off the table. Pick No. 13 is too high for Simpson, and he likely won’t be on the board at Pick No. 61 when the Rams go back on the clock. Of course, L.A. could make a trade to try and get back into Simpson range — late first, early second — but there’s another possibility to consider.
The Seahawks hold only 4 picks this year, and only 1 after the top 100. With the final pick in the first round, Seattle is in an advantageous spot to trade down, acquire another selection, and help a team looking for that extra fifth-year guarantee on a contract.
Arizona has Pick No. 34, and the Jets pick 1 spot ahead of it in the second round. Several mock drafts have Arizona flipping a Day 3 pick to Seattle to swap spots and take Simpson with the final pick of the opening round. At Kalshi, Arizona drafting Simpson trades for 49 cents per contract.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
