Ole Miss heads into the final game of the season against Mississippi State looking for an outside shot at the postseason due to its high APR (Academic Progress Rate). (It won’t be easy because there already are 74 bowl-eligible teams, 1 other 5-win team and 3 more 4-7 teams with better APR scores ahead of Ole Miss. The Rebels are No. 6 in the APR pecking order.)

The Rebels (4-7, 2-5 SEC) will be looking for any chance at the postseason, a place it hasn’t been since the 2015 season.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs (5-6, 3-4 SEC) need the game to continue its streak of bowl appearances dating to the 2011 season.

The game, which is being played on Thanksgiving night, will have the eyes of the college football world on it, kicking off at 6:30 on ESPN in Starkville.

A series that dates to 1901, Ole Miss holds a 64-45-6 advantage. Over the past 30 years, it’s been much more competitive.

How competitive?

They are tied at 15-15.

Can Ole Miss pull off the upset in Starkville? If so, these 3 things need to happen.

1. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is the X-factor

Earlier this season, Ole Miss took its freshman quarterback to SEC Media Days as it prepared for the 2019 season in Oxford. The only difference, it was Matt Corral and not John Rhys Plumlee.

Since the loss to California, Plumlee has been an integral part of the Ole Miss offensive attack and I don’t expect that to change in Starkville. The Bulldogs have struggled this season on defense due to injuries and suspensions. While Mississippi State expects to have all of its players available that were suspended for the majority of the season, it’s been a whirlwind off the field.

Plumlee has proven he can run against the SEC’s best. Last week, the 2019 Conerly Award Nominee slashed the LSU defense for 212 yards and 4 TDs on 21 carries. It’s a bit of a catch-22 for MSU defensive coordinator Bob Shoop. The easy answer is to put 8 defenders in the box and force Plumlee to throw, but you run the risk of not having anyone past the 2nd level when he breaks free. He’s fast enough to outrun anybody in the secondary.

The rushing attack of the freshman 3 in Plumlee, Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner could have a field day.

2. Matt Luke will put an added emphasis in this game

By looking at the numbers alone, the former Ole Miss offensive lineman and Mississippi native has a special place for the rivalry. As a player, Luke finished 2-2 against the Bulldogs. Following the 2017 season in an interim capacity as head coach, Luke was awarded the permanent position after beating the Bulldogs in Starkville 31-28.

Luke spoke about the game in his weekly press availability: “This is a big game for us and our program. (It’s on) National TV, a showcase game for Mississippi, (as we are ) always excited for the Egg Bowl.”

3. Ole Miss forces Tommy Stevens to throw

Normally, you wouldn’t have an issue with this scenario if you were Mississippi State. The problem for the Bulldogs is they don’t have a receiver over 400 receiving yards.

The Rebels are the 34th-best run defense in the country,  allowing 132.0 yards a game. Defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre will have to prepare for the Dawgs to go to the air.

There’s no doubt, Bulldogs coach Joe Moorhead will want to get the ball into his playmakers hand, being running back Kylin Hill.

Ole Miss will limit Hill on the ground, but he could become problematic with his screen game out of the backfield.

Prediction: Mississippi State 34, Ole Miss 31