10 chaos scenarios that could actually happen in the 2023 season
As college football fans, we disagree on a lot.
We don’t all agree on the right Playoff format. We don’t all agree on whether Alabama is properly ranked. We don’t all agree on the Heisman Trophy voting.
It’s hard to get college football fans to agree. Having said that, we can settle on 1 consensus opinion: Chaos is a beautiful thing.
Chaos keeps us coming back. You know what nobody says? That 2007 season was the worst. Nah. We need chaos.
In honor of the season officially kicking off last weekend, I decided to outline some chaos scenarios that can actually happen. These things would become national storylines that would be dissected coast to coast. It’s not as simple as “Stanford beats Washington.” Sure, that would create chaos in the Pac-12, but that’s not making the casual fan think twice unless it directly impacts their team.
Let’s also remember that these aren’t predictions, but they’re possible. Me saying “4 Group of 5 teams will make the Playoff” is a chaos scenario, but it’s not realistic. At all. Two isn’t even realistic.
These chaos scenarios would have a massive impact on the sport as a whole, and as I said, they can actually happen:
1. Texas beats Alabama in Tuscaloosa
You can see the headlines now.
“Texas is back” and “Alabama is dead.”
I can picture some asking the question “did this win say more about Texas’ rise or Alabama’s decline?” Never mind the fact that Texas hasn’t defeated an AP Top 5 foe since 2010 and when that did happen, the Longhorns proceeded to lose 5 of their final 6 games to miss out on bowl eligibility. Also, never mind the fact that Alabama would still have the same path to an SEC Championship even if it lost a nonconference game for the first time in 16 years.
But hey, the knee-jerk reactions wouldn’t care about that.
2. Quinn Ewers and Joe Milton either shine or struggle
The most boring result for the Texas and Tennessee starting quarterbacks is that they’re decent players before heading off to the NFL. If they’re great, we’re going to see to guys with generational arm talent make throws that we didn’t know were physically possible. That would mean ridiculous, share-it-with-your-buddies highlights on a weekly basis.
If they’re not great, they’ve both got decorated 5-star freshman quarterbacks waiting behind them. Nico Iamaleava is QB2 in Tennessee, so he would step into a starting role if Milton struggled or got hurt. Arch Manning might not have that same path with the emergence of Maalik Murphy, but we’d be that much closer to seeing one of the most anticipated debuts of the 21st century.
3. Texas is not back … and neither is Steve Sarkisian
(I promise this isn’t all about Texas. The Longhorns are just agents for chaos in 2023.)
Texas was picked to win the Big 12 for the first time since 2009, and there’s a feeling that anything short of that would be a major disappointment in Year 3 of the Sarkisian era. While I believe that Sarkisian will get a Year 4 for a Texas team that wants to be stable as it enters the SEC, there’s a world in which the Longhorns aren’t back and they elect to pay him an $18 million buyout. If that happens, not only does a premier job open up that makes athletic directors across the country nervous that their guy could be poached, but could it also re-open the Manning sweepstakes? We would see some absurd NIL numbers being thrown out there of that happened. Perhaps it would even approach the money that Sarkisian would get from his buyout.
4. Georgia loses a regular-season game
Yep, Georgia is in 2010s Alabama territory. Lose a game in the regular season and watch how the masses flock. They’d question if Kirby Smart’s team is focused after an eventful offseason. We’d of course have the Playoff conversation and some would say 1 regular-season loss eliminates UGA from the Playoff … even though the SEC Championship winner played for a national championship in 16 of the past 17 years. If the 2-time defending champs go down, you can bet that a whole lot of fan bases will take aim.
5. One of the big Year 2 coaches is fired
Do I think all the big Year 2 coaches are safe? Absolutely. Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley definitely aren’t going anywhere. Some have speculated that Billy Napier is on the hot seat, even with a $31 million buyout, and that Brent Venables could be in trouble, though his buyout is at $29 million. Mario Cristobal’s buyout is unknown because Miami is private, but even if it’s only half of the remaining contract — which was reportedly 10 years, $80 million — that’s still a $32 million buyout. And Marcus Freeman has $15 million left on his contract after Year 2, but nobody is putting him on the hot seat (even Ty Willingham got 3 years at Notre Dame).
But if one of those coaches did somehow get the boot, that would be an elite opening. It’d be the type of job that would set the vacancy market, and like a potential Texas opening, it would help get some potential candidates richer contracts to stay at their current jobs. Call it the “Michigan State doesn’t want to lose Mel Tucker to LSU” raise.
6. Caleb Williams actually repeats as the Heisman Trophy winner
Think about this. We haven’t had a repeat Heisman Trophy winner since Archie Griffin in 1976. Why? From 1977-2002, only 2 Heisman winners returned for another year of school. Since then, though, we’ve had 10 winners return for another year. That includes Williams, who won the award even though USC squandered its Playoff opportunity in a Pac-12 Championship loss to Utah. Could Williams avenge that loss and get USC to its first Playoff berth en route to another Heisman? Don’t rule it out.
Remember, once Heisman trends are broken, the floodgates open. Tim Tebow became the first sophomore to win the Heisman. Since then, 8 underclassmen won the award. Johnny Manziel became the first “freshman” to win the award in 2012 (he was a redshirt freshman). What happened the following year? Redshirt freshman Jameis Winston won the award. If Williams repeats, no longer will that title be put on such a pedestal. It would feel much more approachable for future Heisman winners who return to college.
7. Texas A&M doesn’t improve and a coup begins
No, I don’t believe A&M is about to pay $76.8 million for Jimbo Fisher not to work. Even if the Bobby Petrino hire blows up in his face and it’s a repeat of 2022, I cannot imagine A&M paying 3.5 times the richest buyout ever paid to a college head coach (Gus Malzahn got $21.5 million from Auburn after the 2020 season).
But a coup to get him fired with cause to avoid that buyout? That’s interesting. It would be straight out of the Tennessee playbook with Jeremy Pruitt. Granted, Pruitt was owed north of $12 million. The inevitable lawsuit from Fisher’s camp would be chaotic on every level. So too would be a self-sabotage move of reporting potential NCAA violations. It’s worth noting that A&M did just can its “12th man” NIL initiative after getting an IRS memo this summer. Would A&M look internally to potentially get out of that absurd buyout? A bad season at least begins the speculation.
8. Florida State pays to get out of the Grant of Rights
Speaking of ridiculous checks written by schools that Fisher coached at, FSU paying a reported $120 million to get out of the ACC contract that locks them in until 2036 would send shockwaves through the sport. It’s one thing to leave a conference a season early. That’s what Oklahoma and Texas did for their Big 12-to-SEC move. But paying more than double that to leave a conference more than a decade early would be on a different level.
Even if Florida State bites the bullet to leave the ACC, would the Seminoles join a conference? Or would they go independent? It might not be a feeding frenzy. But it would be another major domino to fall in the realignment puzzle. Other ACC schools would look to FSU and see if the move was financially beneficial, which could fire up more shuffling of the deck. The potential implications would be felt by every major conference.
9. LSU wins the SEC
Why? Because LSU winning the SEC means 2 things. It means Georgia doesn’t win the SEC, which would call the strength of schedule into question for the 2-time defending champs. In the likely event that they win the SEC East, would the Dawgs still get into the Playoff with a loss to LSU? And what about Alabama? Could the Tide be out of a Playoff spot in consecutive years for the first time? It would also mark the first time during the Nick Saban era that Alabama went 3 years without a national title.
Georgia and Alabama are the preseason favorites to win a national title. LSU disrupting that would completely shake up the path to immortality.
10. Dabo Swinney steps down at season’s end
I saved the juiciest one for last.
I’m not saying I expect this. I am saying that if there’s someone at the top of the sport who could make a surprise announcement that he’s stepping down ahead of the new era that awaits, it’s Swinney. It’s not just that he resists the transfer portal. As the revenue gap continues to widen between the ACC and the Big Ten/SEC, Swinney might see a tougher path back to the top. The year-round schedule works for many, and maybe it still works for Swinney’s love of recruiting high school players. But recruiting his own roster is a different ballgame.
A guy with 2 national titles and a cemented legacy could decide that he’s not going to catch Saban. Not with the direction the sport is heading. Swinney stepping down would be as big, and as stunning of a storyline as any that could happen on the field this year.
How’s that for chaos?