Breaking down early regular season win totals for every SEC team in 2024

There’s still a long way to go before the 2024 regular season, but FanDuel has released some early win totals for every SEC program (except Texas) for next season.

The SEC will add Texas and Oklahoma to its ranks next season, further increasing the difficulty for its existing members. All 14 SEC teams will face either the Longhorns or the Sooners next season.

The 2024 campaign will also be a historic one as the College Football Playoff is set to expand to 12 teams next season. Numerous SEC teams are heading into next season with the expectation of competing for a spot in the CFP in 2024.

Without further adieu, let’s break down FanDuel’s SEC win totals for 2024:

Alabama

Win total: 9.5 wins (Over -102 | Under -118)

Nonconference opponents: Western Kentucky, South Florida, at Wisconsin, Mercer

Toughest road games: Wisconsin, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma

Alabama is entering a new world in 2024 with Kalen DeBoer stepping in for Nick Saban. Alabama has gone over this total 14 years in a row, but a tough slate of road games could threaten that streak going into next season.

Arkansas

Win total: 5.5 wins (Over +132 | Under -162)

Nonconference opponents: Arkansas Pine-Bluff, at Oklahoma State, UAB, Louisiana Tech

Toughest road games: Oklahoma State, Auburn, Missouri

Arkansas stalled a bit under Sam Pittman last season, but the Hogs have an ideal schedule — as ideal as it could be — to get back to postseason play in 2024. Road-or-neutral games against Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Auburn are all winnable. The Razorbacks could also steal a home game against Ole Miss, Texas, LSU or Tennessee.

Auburn

Win total: 7.5 wins (Over +124 | Under -154)

Nonconference opponents: Alabama A&M, Cal, New Mexico, Louisiana-Monroe

Toughest road games: Georgia, Missouri, Alabama

The key for Auburn to go over this total will be playing well at home. The Tigers don’t leave the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium until their Week 6 trek to Athens to face Georgia. The Tigers also have brutal road tests against Alabama and Mizzou — who are both expected to compete for a Playoff spot next season. The good news is that Auburn has a soft nonconference schedule and winnable home games against Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

Florida

Win total: 5.5 wins (Over +140 | Under -172)

Nonconference opponents: Miami, Samford, UCF, at Florida State

Toughest road games: Tennessee, Texas, Florida State

Florida has a very tough nonconference slate featuring 3 games against Power-4 opposition. Two of them are at home, but it will still be an uphill battle for the Gators to get to bowl eligibility. UF has gone 3-5 in SEC play in each of Billy Napier’s first 2 seasons in Gainesville. Home games against Kentucky and Texas A&M are going to be crucial for Florida to have a chance at going over this win total.

Georgia

Win total: 10.5 wins (Over -110 | Under -110)

Nonconference opponents: Clemson, Tennessee Tech, UMass, Georgia Tech

Toughest road games: Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss

Georgia will likely enter next season as the No. 1 team in the country, but this is a brutal schedule for the Bulldogs. They start off the year with a neutral-site game against Clemson in Atlanta. Before the end of October, they will have played road games against Kentucky, Alabama and Texas. There’s not much margin-for-error here if you’re planning to take the over.

Kentucky

Win total: 6.5 wins (Over +120 | Under -150)

Nonconference opponents: Southern Miss, Ohio, Murray State, Louisville

Toughest road games: Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas

Kentucky is hoping to bounce back from a somewhat disappointing campaign in 2023. The Wildcats have reached the postseason in 8 straight seasons but will be facing a tough schedule in 2024. If Kentucky is going to hit the over, it’s important it sweeps nonconference play — including the regular season finale against Louisville. If the Wildcats do that, home games against South Carolina, Auburn and Vanderbilt could take them over this total.

LSU

Win total: 9.5 wins (Over -114 | Under -106)

Nonconference opponents: Southern Cal, Nicholls, UCLA, South Alabama

Toughest road games: Texas A&M, Southern Cal (neutral-site game in Las Vegas)

LSU has about as easy as a road schedule as you’ll find in the SEC this season. The Tigers get almost all of the toughest teams on their schedule at home in 2024 (Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma). LSU had a lot of turnover on its coaching staff this offseason, but expects to make big improvements defensively in 2024. There’s certainly a path to 10+ wins for the Tigers next season.

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Mississippi State

Win total: 4.5 wins (Over -106 | Under -114)

Nonconference opponents: Eastern Kentucky, at Arizona State, Toledo, UMass

Toughest road games: Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss

This is a brutal schedule for new head coach Jeff Lebby to be walking into in Year 1. The Bulldogs do have a relatively-manageable nonconference slate, however. They should go at least 3-1, with a road game against Arizona State being a possible road block. If they beat the Aztecs, the Bulldogs would just have to win 1 home against Florida, Texas A&M or Arkansas to go over this number.

Missouri

Win total: 9.5 wins (Over +136 | Under -138)

Nonconference opponents: Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, at UMass

Toughest road games: Texas A&M, Alabama

This schedule sets up nicely for Missouri to make a serious run at a Playoff spot in 2024. The Tigers have had a great offseason in the transfer portal and are coming off of a 10-win campaign (and a bowl game victory over Ohio State) in 2023. Aside from the road game in Tuscaloosa, there’s no obvious loss on Mizzou’s schedule in 2024.

Oklahoma

Win total: 6.5 wins (Over -150 | Under +118)

Nonconference opponents: Temple, Houston, Tulane, Maine

Toughest road games: Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU

Welcome to the SEC, Oklahoma. Oklahoma has fallen under this win total just once in the last 25 seasons (in 2022). The Sooners are going to face one of the toughest schedules in the country in 2024, however — even with a relatively soft nonconference slate. The hypothetical path to 7 wins includes a 4-0 record in nonconference play and victories over South Carolina and Auburn. From there, OU would need to steal just one of Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU to get to 7 wins.

Ole Miss

Win total: 9.5 wins (Over -144 | Under +118)

Nonconference opponents: Furman, Middle Tennessee, at Wake Forest, Georgia Southern

Toughest road games: LSU, Florida

Perhaps no SEC team has received more hype so far this offseason than Ole Miss. The Rebels won a school-record 11 games last season and are set to bring back numerous key pieces from that team. Lane Kiffin and his staff have also been doing work in the transfer portal and have the No. 1 transfer class in the country, per 247Sports Composite rankings. The SEC’s expansion means the Rebels will avoid Alabama this season. Circle this one on the calendar: Georgia at Ole Miss on Nov. 9 in a potential SEC Championship Game preview.

South Carolina

Win total: 5.5 wins (Over -128 | Under +100)

Nonconference opponents: Old Dominion, Akron, Wofford, at Clemson

Toughest road games: Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson

The goal for South Carolina will be to get back to bowl eligibility in 2024. The Gamecocks slipped below that threshold in 2024 and now have to replace quarterback Spencer Rattler going into next season. South Carolina is likely going to be a big underdog against Clemson next season, which means the Gamecocks will probably need 3 SEC wins to go over this total.

Tennessee

Win total: 8.5 wins (Over -184 | Under +146)

Nonconference opponents: Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State, UTEP

Toughest road games: NC State (neutral-site game in Charlotte), Oklahoma, Georgia

At -184, the market seems to be titled toward the over for the Vols at this number. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see this total at 9 wins (or even 9.5) later on in the offseason. Trips to Norman and Athens will be tough, but there aren’t a ton of road blocks for Tennessee on this schedule. It’s very possible the Vols sweep their home slate in 2024, which would provide a clear pathway to 9+ regular-season wins.

Texas A&M

Win total: 8.5 wins (Over +114 | Under -142)

Nonconference opponents: Notre Dame, McNeese, Bowling Green, New Mexico State

Toughest road games: Florida, Auburn

Mike Elko couldn’t have asked for a better schedule in Year 1. A Week 1 home game against Notre Dame will be difficult, but the Aggies have a very reasonable SEC slate this season — especially on the road. They get Missouri, LSU and Texas all at home. Still, the Aggies are facing a lot of roster turnover after going through a coaching change this offseason.

Vanderbilt

Win total: 2.5 wins (Over -115 | Under -105)

Nonconference opponents: Virginia Tech, Alcorn State, at Georgia State, Ball State

Toughest road games: Missouri, LSU

Vanderbilt is always fighting an uphill battle in the SEC and this season will be no different. The Commodores will almost certainly be underdogs in every conference game they play this season. Their nonconference slate is tougher than it might appear, too, with Virginia Tech gearing up for a big Year 3 under Brent Pry. A road trip to Georgia State won’t be easy for Vandy either. Vanderbilt has fallen under this total in 2 of its 3 seasons under Clark Lea.

Note: Listed win totals and odds are subject to change.