1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

We’re 3 days from the NFL Draft, and it’s time to zero in on what works and what doesn’t.

After months of observation, and countless calls and texts and conversations with NFL scouts — throughout the 2022 season and the first 4 months of the offseason — it’s time to deconstruct the analysis and lay it out for all to see.

Always remember that there are no bad selections in the NFL Draft. The talent is there for the 250-plus players picked over 7 rounds from Thursday through Saturday.

The great unknown, however, is the human condition.

Do you have a passion for the game, and are you willing to invest the time to develop your professional craft?

“Some guys want it, some guys think they want it,” an NFL scout told me. “Some guys want it because they don’t know what else to do with their lives after college. Some guys want it because their family wants it. We try everything possible to understand where each man falls on that spectrum. Sometimes we can, sometimes you have to wait and see what happens when he gets on a field with other grown men and he’s battling for a job.”

This much we know about the 2023 NFL Draft: the first player selected will be a quarterback. And odds are it will be 1 of 3 SEC quarterbacks.

Other than that, sit back and enjoy the ride — with the Top 10 SEC players, the Next 5 and Boom or Bust.

2. The Top 10

1. QB Bryce Young, Alabama: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Exhibit A of the lunacy that is paralysis by analysis. At the Combine in February, Young was too short and barely 205 pounds and there were 4 quarterbacks who were safer picks. Then the NFL did what it always does: goes back to game tape. There’s no more complete quarterback in the draft — no matter his height and weight. What separates Young from the other QBs is his ability to throw accurately under duress.

2. Edge/DE Will Anderson, Alabama: Has every skill needed to disrupt off the edge in an odd or even front, as a stand up rush edge or with his hand on the ground. He’s long and athletic, and he relentlessly chases against the pass and run. One scout said, “It’s the instincts with his rush moves, and ability to see and diagnose.”

3. OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee: Was a late 1st/early 2nd-round projection at the end of the 2022 season. But a lack of high ceilings at the tackle position, and his stellar play in a pass-friendly offense, may have moved Wright into the first 16 picks.

4. Edge/OLB Nolan Smith, Georgia: The torn pectoral injury midway through the 2022 season prevented a breakout season. But the talent and skill are too good to pass up, even though the production (11.5 sacks) in 4 seasons at Georgia doesn’t match with a 1st-round pick. He’s a true odd front edge/OLB.

5. OT Broderick Jones, Georgia: Still a work in progress, but that’s what many scouts find appealing: his high ceiling. A former basketball player, his quick feet and athleticism should translate to a strong left tackle. Has the makeup of a tough road-grader. All he needs is refined skills.

6. G O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida: Best description from an NFL scout: “He’s a nasty, tough dude who will steal your lunch money.” Didn’t give up a sack in 4 college seasons, but his stellar pass protection isn’t the complete package. It’s the interior muscle and heavy hands in the run game. He’s more suited for a zone blocking scheme, and there are plenty of those in the NFL. He’s not the athlete of Quentin Nelson — with the ability move, scrape and engage in space — but he’ll dominate at the point of attack.

7. QB Will Levis, Kentucky: He can physically do it all and will be a factor in the QB power run game (see: Josh Allen). At the top of potential issues: too many poor decisions and forced throws. He played better in 2021 (when Kentucky protected better), but struggled with accuracy and decision making in 2022 (when UK gave up 46 sacks).

8. CB Darius Rush, South Carolina: Ever since a blazing 4.36 40 at the Combine, scouts are reassessing Rush’s final season at South Carolina. A former wideout, he’s still a raw cover corner and his tackling needs work. But his size (6-2, 200) and length and potential for growth are exciting.

9. WR Cedric Tillman, Tennessee: A difficult analysis for many scouts because a high ankle sprain affected nearly his entire 2022 season. Many now focus on 2021, when a healthy Tillman was among the top 5 receivers in the game (16.9 ypc., 12 TD). The WR position is lean in the draft, and that could move Tillman into the early 2nd round.

10. CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia: Which Ringo will you get? The corner who played as well as anyone in the game in 2021, or the player who looked disinterested (at times) in 2022? On talent and size (6-2, 207) and speed (4.36 40) alone, he’s worth a late 1st-round pick.

3. The Next 5

11. CB Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State: OK, he’s 166 pounds. And he’s 6-1. Yeah, it’s hard to overlook. You know what else is? His 4.35 40 time, and 14 career interceptions and — this is not a misprint — an NCAA record 6 INT returns for a TD.

12. QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee: He may be the 4th quarterback selected, but more than likely the 5th — and possibly in the late 1st round. Scouts are concerned about Tennessee’s QB-friendly offense, and if Hooker is the same player against tighter NFL coverage windows (where he can’t hold onto the ball as long).

13. Edge/LB Drew Sanders, Arkansas: Some teams see him as a matchup linebacker in an even front, others as a stand up edge in an odd front. He has the explosion off the edge to rush the passer. One NFL scout told me Sanders was used in too many positions along the front 7 and never got completely comfortable — which explains his tendency to over pursue.

14. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama: An intriguing pick, maybe even as early as the late 1st round. He’s not the biggest guy (5-9, 199 pounds), but he has an Alvin Kamara feel. His 4.36 40 doesn’t do justice to his game speed and explosiveness, when he hits a crease in the run game or after the catch.

15. Edge Isaiah McGuire, Missouri: Sneaky quickness, and long and powerful at the point of attack. Needs to develop more pass rush moves, and he’s far from a finished product. But as one NFL scout told me, “A smart player, and a guy that once he develops his game, you’ll look up and he’ll have 8-10 sacks at the end of the season.”

4. Boom or bust

1. QB Anthony Richardson, Florida: The very definition of boom or bust. If you take him among the first 10-15 picks of the draft — and someone will — you’re banking on your ability to quickly coach and develop him well beyond what he got in 3 years at Florida. If he weren’t the perfect quarterback specimen, his college production likely translates to late round or undrafted free agent.

2. DT Jalen Carter, Georgia: Make no mistake, he will be selected in the top 5 of the draft. But many teams were shocked by his Pro Day performance: showing up out of shape and refusing to do drills. He knew when his Pro Day was, knew it was a job interview, and still showed up and tanked.

3. WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee: The perfect fit for the Tennessee offense: a receiver who can run and find spots in off-coverage. How does he react to bump coverage in the NFL? But that separation speed and acceleration after the catch is hard to ignore.

4. Edge BJ Ojulari, LSU: He’s not playing with his hand on the ground, and that limits what he can become. He’s an edge in an odd front, and his ceiling is a concern. Or as 1 scout told me: “There are 6-2, 245 guys everywhere. How do you separate yourself? I hear Haason Reddick comparisons. I could easily see K’Lavon Chaisson.”

5. S Brian Branch, Alabama: He’s not a cornerback. He might begin his career as a slot corner, but it won’t last long — he’s a safety. His cover skills never really developed, but he could be a big, dependable hitter in the back end.

The Weekly 5

The 5 best SEC draft picks from the 2022 NFL Draft.

1. LB Quay Walker, Georgia (22nd overall, Packers): Led rookies with 121 tackles, but was a game-wrecker. Will be the best NFL player from the talented 2021 Georgia defense.

2. Dameon Pierce, Florida (107th overall, Texans): Led all rookies in yards per game (72.2), and only an injury in Week 14 kept him from a 1,000-yard season.

3. WR George Pickens, Georgia (52nd overall, Steelers): Averaged 15.4 yards per catch, and more impressive, had 17 catches of 20+ yards. The more QB Kenny Pickett develops, the more dangerous Pickens becomes.

4. CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU (3rd overall, Texans): Injuries shortened his season to 9 games, but he  well in man coverage and is a critical franchise piece moving forward.

5. DT Jordan Davis, Georgia (13th overall, Eagles): Was putting together an impressive first season before a high ankle sprain slowed development over the last 6 weeks. Only played 225 snaps, but proved unblockable at times.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: LSU WR Kayshon Boutte.

“What a range of possibilities. With his talent and elite skill level, he could be the steal of the draft. No other receiver in this draft has his skill level, no one can accelerate like he can. And he’s a strong guy. He’s a weapon on the right team. In the right structure, with the right coaching and teaching, he could be a legitimate 1 (receiver). The downside is he shows up when he wants to. How invested will he be? How committed? At what point, what round, do you decide it’s worth the risk to take him?”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: spring practice star.

1. Georgia: QB Carson Beck. The best sign from spring practice: Beck left no doubt. He’s the starter, and he looks comfortable — and potentially prolific.

2. Alabama: RB Justice Haynes. The Tide’s most complete back since Najee Harris. Haynes has good speed, runs hard and can move the pile, and is a threat in the pass game.

3. Tennessee: RB Cameron Seldon. Signed as a receiver, and the staff tried multiple positions for the midterm enrollee. He found a home at running back, and could be an electric and speedy situational piece.

4. LSU: WR Kyren Lacy. Transferred to LSU last year from Louisiana, but never found his fit. Now he’s playing with confidence, and is a legit option at all 3 levels.

5. Texas A&M: WR Noah Thomas. Was inconsistent last year, but completely change his game over the last 4 months. Coach Jimbo Fisher has raved about him all spring. Thomas is all of 6-6, and can accelerate and separate.

6. Kentucky: CB Maxwell Hairston. Speedy and active at the line of scrimmage, he’s the prototypical Mark Stoops corner.

7. Ole Miss: QB Jaxson Dart. Coach Lane Kiffin brought in transfers Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard — and Dart got better, and played better. He turned the ball over once in spring practice, and is prepared to make a significant jump in Year 2 as a starter.

8. Mississippi State: WR Tulu Griffin. Maybe this is the breakout season — in this new offense — for Griffin, a burner who just hasn’t been consistent enough in 3 previous seasons.

9. South Carolina: WR Eddie Lewis. The Memphis transfer will be a dangerous complement to All-SEC WR Juice Wells. Lewis caught 42 balls (7 TDs) in 2022, and an increase in that production (and production from Arkansas transfer TE Trey Knox) gives the Gamecocks a dangerous pass game.

10. Arkansas: WR Tyrone Broden. Maybe the steal of the transfer portal (from Bowling Green). Broden is 6-7 and elite with 50-50 balls, and has speed to get behind the defense.

11. Florida: DE Kelby Collins. A position of need for the Gators, and Collins could be 1 of 2 freshman impact players (DE TJ Searcy). Both are big, strong and physically ready to compete in the SEC — something Florida desperately needs on defense.

12. Missouri: WR Luther Burden III: The former 5-star recruit may have finally found his spot in the slot. He’ll still work outside, but he’s a matchup problem inside, and he’ll stress defenses.

13. Auburn: RB Damari Alston. Terrific burst and deceptive power. Only had 14 carries as a freshman in 2022, but will get significantly more in 2023 as Jarquez Hunter’s top backup.

14. Vanderbilt: RB Sedrick Alexander. A midterm enrollee, Alexander showed explosion and an ability to make defenders miss. He’ll play a significant role from Game 1.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: You were standing up for Auburn to hire Deion Sanders. The more I see what’s going on at Colorado, the more I think you were right. — Kurt Lyle, Atlanta.

Kurt:

That doesn’t mean Hugh Freeze can’t be successful at Auburn, it just means I believed it was the right time at Auburn — with all that had gone on over the previous 3 seasons of paying Gus Malzahn $21.45 million to not coach, and firing Bryan Harsin after 2 seasons — to try something unique.

Winning at the elite level of college football is more about recruiting and developing players — including the right quarterback — than anything. Sanders is a charismatic recruiting magnet and has already shown as much at Colorado. And bonus for the Buffs: They have an elite QB in Sanders’ son, Shedeur.

Deion Sanders will win at Colorado, and after a few years be forced to make a decision: does he want to reap the rewards of his hard work, or move to the elite level of college football? Because at that point, there could be multiple SEC programs willing to hire him.

9. Numbers

35. Five Georgia players were chosen in the 1st round of the 2022 NFL Draft, and they combined for 35 starts in their rookie seasons.

Quay Walker started 16 of 17 games, and Jaguars DE Travon Walker started 14. Davis (5 starts) was the only other player from the 5 to earn a start.

DT Devonte Wyatt played in 16 games for the Packers and had no starts, but he played well and is expected to have a bigger role this season. S Lewis Cine played in 4 games for the Vikings, but a knee injury in camp and eventually a compound leg fracture in early October, prevented him from playing more.

10. Quote to note

Alabama coach Nick Saban: “I like this team’s toughness. I think they’re physical. They play hard. We don’t have a bunch of guys that are soft or looking for an easy way.”