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Hammerin’ the B1G: My favorite DFS picks for Big Ten Championship Game
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Welcome, one and all, to Championship Weekend! Whether you are thrilled about your team’s College Football Playoff ranking or screaming at the clouds, we can all agree on one thing.
There are some fantastic matchups on tap this week! And yes, that includes the Big Ten Championship Game between Penn State and Oregon.
While the Ducks are likely expected to win and complete a 13-0 push to the No. 1 seed in the Playoff, the Nittany Lions have their own game-changing pieces on either side of the ball. It will also be the first head-to-head game between James Franklin and Dan Lanning in the new era of the Big Ten.
With that matchup comes some fantastic DFS offerings for both teams. And I have taken the liberty of compiling some of my favorites to peruse before we get into the action.
Let’s dive in!
Dillon Gabriel, Oregon QB — Higher/lower than 235.5 pass yards (via Sleeper)
I think whoever wins Saturday night has to throw the ball a bit to get the win with both teams pretty solid against the run. Penn State is a bit better than Oregon in that regard, giving up just 97 yards per game and 3.12 yards per carry all season long.
The Ducks will do their best to get the ground game running, and look for Jordan James to still find his moments. But it shouldn’t be any surprise that Gabriel likely needs to spearhead the offensive attack to get the win.
It’s also worth mentioning that Gabriel looks due for a big game.
Gabriel eclipsed the 235.5 number every time in the first 9 games of the season. However, he’s failed to reach that mark in 3 games since (though he still has 6 total touchdowns to just 1 interception in that span).
Tez Johnson is also back healthy and it’s unlikely the Ducks rip off the 222 rushing yards against Penn State that they did against Washington.
Pick: Higher than 235.5 passing yards
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Drew Allar, Penn State QB — Higher/lower than 202.5 pass yards (via Underdog)
I am a pretty big believer in Allar, at least in terms of playing in Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. But I’m not a super big believer in this specific matchup.
Oregon’s pass defense is 4th in the Big Ten this season, giving up 171.5 passing yards, and the Ducks are 2nd in the conference, allowing just a 55.5 completion percentage to opposing teams. Lanning’s group also has more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed (10 INTs to 9 TDs).
It’s also not uncommon for Allar to come in under the mark against Big Ten opponents. He had 4 games with less than 200 yards passing in the conference schedule, including games against Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Penn State’s path to victory is not through airing it out, so if Allar eclipses this number, it’s probably a negative sign for the actual score for the Nittany Lions.
PICK: Lower than 202.5 pass yards
Nicholas Singleton, Penn State RB — Anytime TD higher/lower than 0.5 (via Sleeper)
It’s pretty clear Nicholas Singleton was not 100% throughout the 2nd half of the season. His explosiveness and big-play ability lagged behind, but he looked much better against Maryland.
Singleton shined in the regular-season finale with 104 total yards of offense and 2 touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per carry. He also ripped off a 66-yard kickoff return against the Terps.
Beyond that performance, he’s also riding a 3-game streak with at least 1 rushing touchdown to finish the year. Considering you get this pick to include touchdowns outside of the ground game, I’d take it.
PICK: Higher than 0.5 anytime TDs
Dillon Gabriel, Oregon QB — Higher/lower than 13.5 rush yards (via Sleeper)
If you don’t like the passing yardage number for Gabriel, consider taking a look at his rushing total. One caveat to remember: any sack yardage sustained will come out of his rushing total.
Even with that distinction, Gabriel has just 1 game with negative rushing yards (at Purdue) since the middle of September. In the big win against Ohio State, Gabriel had 32 rushing yards, and he has 7 games this season of 20+ rushing yards, including 3 of his last 4.
Penn State does have a good pass rush, headlined by B1G Defensive Player of the Year Abdul Carter. But that’s also why I expect a few designed runs for Gabriel to keep the defense off-balance, and there’s always the chance he gets out of the pocket early on some plays.
PICK: Higher than 13.5 rush yards
Tyler Warren, Penn State TE — Higher/lower than 67.5 receiving yards (via Underdog)
James Franklin was adamant after the season finale that nobody has been able to take away Warren this year, even though the tight end is the focal of Penn State’s offense.
That’s true, but that’s also because of the way the Nittany Lions deploy Warren. He does have 4 games of 100+ receiving yards, but he has just 1 other game north of 70 receiving yards.
And even if you predict Warren to come in lower than the receiving total, it doesn’t mean he will have a limited impact. He had just 47 receiving yards against Ohio State, but he also had 47 rushing yards in that game.
Against Maryland in Week 14, Warren had just 68 receiving yards. But he also rushed for 32 and completed a 9-yard pass out of a Wildcat formation.
PICK: Lower than 68.5 receiving yards
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Paul Harvey lives in Atlanta and covers SEC football.
