Which team will win the national championship in 2015? And will the SEC end a two-year title drought in the second-ever College Football Playoff?

Judging by the “Vegas” odds — these are actually from an international sportsbook — just a few teams will carry the SEC’s banner nationally this season. Especially Alabama and Auburn.

Ranking teams preseason is one of the most divisive, opinion-stirring exercises, a phenomenon that becomes more pronounced in SEC country. But gambling is a practical exercise. Bias quickly leads to lost funds.

With that in mind, let’s examine the national championship odds for every SEC team and identify a few good and bad betting opportunities.

SEC NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Odds courtesy of Bovada as of 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Alabama 7/1
Auburn 12/1
Georgia 25/1
LSU 28/1
Arkansas 40/1
Ole Miss 40/1
Texas A&M 40/1
Tennessee 50/1
Florida 66/1
Mississippi State 66/1
South Carolina 100/1
Missouri 150/1

Off: Kentucky, Vanderbilt

OTHER NOTABLES

Ohio State 7/2
TCU 10/1
Florida State 12/1
USC 18/1
Baylor 20/1

VALUE PICKS

Let me preface this with a strong warning: place futures bets at your own peril. Many of these are designed for sportsbooks to pad their profit margins. Amateur gamblers, or “squares,” get these grand delusions of grandeur.

Maybe you heard the story of the Auburn fan who put down $100 on the team to win the national championship in 2013 — at 500/1 odds. He nearly won $50,000, which would’ve represented an astronomical R.O.I. (return on investment) akin to cashing a nice lotto ticket.

There are enough of those out there — similar to the “this guy got rich, and you can as well” allure of daily fantasy sports — that it’s tempting, especially if you have an allegiance to a team, you feel decent about their chances and they’re somewhat of a long shot.

The truth is you’re going to overpay for the true contenders while, generally speaking, you aren’t going to get enough return on your investment if you do hit one of the crazy long shots.

That said, in looking for value on this year’s list, I do see a few opportunities.

  • Georgia at 25/1. The Bulldogs will enter the 2015 season as the best team in the SEC East, no offense to Missouri and Tennessee. UGA beat Mizzou, 34-0, on the road without Todd Gurley last season, and the Vols are a year away from true contention. If Georgia can handle the SEC East slate without a loss — which is far from a guarantee — it probably would need to finish 2-1 against a combination of Alabama and Auburn. The Bulldogs play both teams in the regular season and then may meet one of them in the SEC championship as well. But I believe Georgia is more or less as good as both the Tide and Tigers, only with much better odds. If UGA makes the playoffs, let’s give them a 25 percent chance of winning a national title. That means if Georgia has a 1 in 5 shot of winning the SEC this year, these are good odds. At 1 in 5 of winning the SEC (which I think is conservative), and then 1 in 4 of winning the national title, UGA would have real odds of 20/1.
  • Ole Miss at 40/1. The Rebels may produce four first-round picks after the 2015 season. The defense should be outstanding. Ole Miss beat No. 1 Alabama last year, so it’s not as if the team will play scared in big games. I’d slot the team third in the SEC West to start the season, and if anything whacky is going to happen in the division this year, it’s probably a title by the team from Oxford. If Chad Kelly becomes the starting quarterback and plays well, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility for the Rebels to compete.
  • Missouri at 150/1. The SEC East remains winnable, especially if the Tigers can get revenge at Georgia — or if the Bulldogs get pounded into submission by the Alabama schools while Mizzou coasts through a relatively easy schedule. I don’t see how Missouri’s chances of winning the East are any worse than the last two seasons. Certainly they’re many notches better than 0.5 percent, which is how Bovada rates the team’s national championship odds. Win the East for a third consecutive year, with a strong defense and an effective running game, and the Tigers could be three wins away from a national championship. It’s proven too tall of a task to win the SEC title the last few years, and it’s pretty unlikely Mizzou emerges as the SEC champions in ’15. But you’re paying $100 to win $150,000 here. I see decent value with the Tigers.

STAY AWAY

  • Arkansas at 40/1: I don’t care that Brandon Allen is a senior, or that he looked great in the spring game. In 2014, he completed just 56 percent of his passes in a run-heavy, play-action offense that leans on tight ends and backs while taking good care of the ball. That’s barely adequate, not national championship material (even on a Bret Bielema team). I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Razorbacks lost all five one-possession games last season. Usually that’s a reason to back a team, with the expectation that they’ll have better luck the next year and may be underrated. These guys just aren’t built to come from behind, can’t “win left-handed,” so to speak, and need to control the game. In the SEC West, there are four teams clearly favored ahead of them entering the season, and two others that could beat them as well. The Razorbacks are more likely to finish last in the division than to win it, much less win a national title. Don’t waste your money.
  • Florida at 66/1: The consensus opinion is that the Gators are the fourth-best team in the SEC East — and that’s being optimistic. In addition to needing to settle on a quarterback, Jim McElwain’s team should struggle along the offensive line. Florida needs to discover some more playmakers on offense and build more depth at lots of positions. The fact that the Gators’ odds are much better than South Carolina and much, much better than Missouri should equate to a giant “STAY AWAY” sign in terms of betting. Florida is a popular team with a loyal fan base and a new head coach. These odds are inflated to reflect that, because the book knows that some fans won’t be able to resist backing the team out of excitement. Don’t be one of those fans.