Recruiting rankings, especially for quarterbacks, can mean next-to-nothing when a player hits the college ranks. For every Tim Tebow, a five-star prospect who lived up to his billing and then some, there’s a Jeff Driskel, a five-star who did not meet expectiations, or a Dak Prescott, an underrated high school player who blew his recruiting rating out of the water.

The SEC has had it’s share of big-name recruits in the last decade at quarterback, even as the talent has left the conference over the last year or so. Let’s look back to see how the SEC’s elite recruits (four- and five-star prospects) from each of the signing classes from 2005-14 panned out and see if we can draw conclusions about what goes right or wrong with them, throwing in any big-name quarterbacks who came from lower rankings as well.

2005

Boom: John Parker Wilson, 3-star PRO, Alabama;
Bust: Ryan Perriloux, 5-star DUAL, LSU; Josh Portis, 4-star DUAL, Florida;
Mixed results: Jonathan Crompton, 4-star PRO, Tennessee; Casey Dick, 3-star DUAL, Arkansas

2006

Boom: Tim Tebow, 5-star DUAL, Florida; Matthew Stafford, 5-star PRO, Georgia; Greg McElroy, 3-star PRO, Alabama
Bust: Mitch Mustain, 5-star PRO, Arkansas

2007

Boom: Cam Newton, 4-star DUAL, Florida (transferred to Auburn); Chris Reif, 2-star DUAL, Mississippi State
Bust: John Brantley, 5-star PRO, Florida,
Mixed results: Stephen Garica, 4-star PRO, South Carolina; Jarrett Lee, 4-star PRO, LSU; Kodi Burns, 4-star DUAL, Auburn

2008

Boom: Tyler Wilson, 4-star PRO, Arkansas
Bust: Star Jackson, 4-star PRO, Alabama; Barrett Trotter, 4-star PRO, Auburn
Mixed results: Jordan Jefferson, 4-star PRO, LSU

2009

Boom: Aaron Murray, 5-star DUAL, Georgia; AJ McCarron, 4-star PRO, Alabama; Zach Mettenberger, 4-star PRO, Georgia (transferred to LSU); Tyler Russell, 4-star PRO, Mississippi State
Bust: Russell Shepard, 5-star DUAL, LSU; Ryan Mossakowski, 4-star PRO, Kentucky; Tyrik Rollison, 4-star DUAL, Auburn; Raymond Cotton, 4-star DUAL, Ole Miss

2010

Boom: Connor Shaw, 3-star DUAL, South Carolina; Dylan Thompson, 2-star PRO, South Carolina; Hutson Mason, 3-star PRO, Georgia
Bust: Phillip Sims, 5-star PRO, Alabama
Mixed results: Tyler Bray, 4-star PRO, Tennessee

2011

Boom: Dak Prescott, 3-star DUAL, Mississippi State
Bust: Jeff Driskel, 5-star DUAL, Florida; Jacoby Brissett, 4-star PRO, Florida; Jerrard Randall, 4-star DUAL, LSU; Kiehl Frazier, 4-star DUAL, Auburn
Mixed results: Brandon Allen, 3-star PRO, Arkansas; Justin Worley, 3-star PRO, Tennessee

2012

Boom: Maty Mauk, 4-star DUAL, Missouri; Patrick Towles, 4-star PRO, Kentucky
Bust: Zeke Price, 4-star DUAL, Auburn; Matt Davis, 4-star DUAL, Texas A&M

2013

Boom: Joshua Dobbs, 4-star PRO, Tennessee
Bust: Cord Sandberg, 4-star DUAL, Mississippi State; Hayden Rettig, 4-star PRO, LSU
Mixed results: Kenny Hill, 4-star DUAL, Texas A&M
Jury’s out: Cooper Bateman, 4-star PRO, Alabama; Brice Ramsey, 4-star PRO, Georgia; Jeremy Johnson, 4-star PRO, Auburn; Anthony Jennings, 4-star PRO, LSU; Ryan Buchanan, 4-star PRO, Ole Miss; Austin Allen, 4-star PRO, Arkansas

2014

Boom: Kyle Allen, 5-star PRO, Texas A&M
Bust: Jacob Park, 4-star PRO, Georgia
Jury’s out: Will Grier, 4-star PRO, Florida; David Cornwell, 4-star PRO, Alabama; Drew Barker, 4-star PRO, Kentucky; Sean White, 4-star PRO, Auburn; Brandon Harris, 4-star DUAL, LSU

So what can we pull from all of this?

Sticking with just the elite recruits, the four- and five-stars, the SEC signed a total of 40 quarterbacks from 2005-14: 24 pro-style and 16 dual-threat.

The success rate for the quarterbacks that we can properly evaluate to this point is far higher with pro-style quarterbacks than with dual-threat. Only three of the 16 elite dual-threat QBs signed can be considered total successes (Tebow, Murray and two-time SEC East champ Mauk), while just two more qualified under “mixed results.”

Conversely, pro-style recruits fared a bit better. Nine of the 24 were highly successful in their careers, nearly double the rate of dual-threat QBs. It’s still not high — 37.5 percent compared to 18.8 percent — but this is the quarterback position we’re talking about. Teams only need one of them to be really good in a given year.

Coaching clearly has a lot to do with a quarterback’s success. If a passer lands at a stable program like Georgia, mid-2000s Florida or Alabama, or with a top offensive-minded coach like Steve Spurrier, Butch Jones or Kevin Sumlin, the chances for success go way up. And, on the flip side, teams that were in a state of flux or have/had questionable coaching saw a far higher bust rate.

Recruiting a quarterback is an inexact science. In order to cultivate the talent a team recruits, they have to have the right coaching, the right offense and pick the right passer. It’s never going to be a sure thing, which is why bringing in elite talent will always be a big deal; the more of it a team has, the better their chances of winning the quarterback lottery.