Do recruiting rankings matter?

It seems like this question gets asked primarily two days a year: National Signing Day and the first round of the NFL Draft.

Following Thursday night’s first round, it’d be hard to argue against how accurate they are. In fact, it’s probably better than you actually think. Sure, some prospects are going to slip past the recruiting evaluators, but more often than not, they don’t.

Here’s the breakdown of all 32 picks in first round (247Sports Composite):

5-stars: 10
4-stars: 12
3-stars: 6
2-stars: 2
Not Ranked: 2

Five-stars and four-stars are the elite high school players, and 22 of the 32 picks were either five- or four-star prospects (nearly 69 percent). Now-a-days, there are really only about 30-32 five-star players in every recruiting class, and to get 10 of those right is very impressive. Combine those 10 with 12 four-stars, and that’s getting very good.

The first three former SEC players off the board — Myles Garrett (No. 1), Leonard Fournette (No. 4) and Jamal Adams (No. 6) were all five-star prospects. Of the SEC’s 12 NFL Draft picks, seven were former five-star recruits, two were four-stars, two were three-stars and one was a two-star. Missouri DE Charles Harris was one of two two-star prospects in the entire NFL Draft.

Here’s the breakdown of the SEC’s 12 first-round picks:

5-stars: 7
4-stars: 2
3-stars: 2
2-stars: 1

Interestingly, two players were picked in the first round that weren’t even rated as high school prospects — Cardinals’ No. 13 pick LB Haason Reddick (Temple) and Saints’ No. 32 pick OL Ryan Ramczyk (Wisconsin). Reddick joined Temple as a walk-on and blew into a fabulous linebacker, while Ramczyk also has an interesting story. He turned down an offer from Pitt out of high school and elected to play at D-2 Winona State. He enrolled at three different colleges before transferring to Wisconsin to finish his career.

Here’s the full first round and star ranking:

Pick

Team

Player

Pos

College

Stars

Conference

1

Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett

DE

Texas A&M

*****

SEC

2

Chicago Bears

Mitchell Trubisky

QB

UNC

****

ACC

3

San Francisco 49ers

Solomon Thomas

DE

Stanford

*****

Pac-12

4

Jacksonville Jaguars

Leonard Fournette

RB

LSU

*****

SEC

5

Tennessee Titans

Corey Davis

WR

Western Michigan

**

MAC

6

New York Jets

Jamal Adams

DB

LSU

*****

SEC

7

Los Angeles Chargers

Mike Williams

WR

Clemson

****

ACC

8

Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey

RB

Stanford

****

Pac-12

9

Cincinnati Bengals

John Ross

WR

Washington

****

Pac-12

10

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes II

QB

Texas Tech

***

Big 12

11

New Orleans Saints

Marshon Lattimore

CB

Ohio State

****

Big Ten

12

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson

QB

Clemson

****

ACC

13

Arizona Cardinals

Haason Reddick

LB

Temple

N/R

AAC

14

Philadelphia Eagles

Derek Barnett

DE

Tennessee

****

SEC

15

Indianapolis Colts

Malik Hooker

DB

Ohio State

***

Big Ten

16

Baltimore Ravens

Marlon Humphrey

CB

Alabama

*****

SEC

17

Washington Redskins

Jonathan Allen

DL

Alabama

*****

SEC

18

Tennessee Titans

Adoree Jackson

DB

USC

*****

Pac-12

19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

OJ Howard

TE

Alabama

*****

SEC

20

Denver Broncos

Garrett Bolles

OT

Utah

****

Pac-12

21

Detroit Lions

Jarrad Davis

LB

Florida

***

SEC

22

Miami Dolphins

Charles Harris

DE

Missouri

**

SEC

23

New York Giants

Evan Engram

TE

Ole Miss

***

SEC

24

Oakland Raiders

Gareon Conley

DB

Ohio State

****

Big Ten

25

Cleveland Browns

Jabrill Peppers

DB

Michigan

*****

Big Ten

26

Atlanta Falcons

Takkarist McKinley

LB

UCLA

****

Pac-12

27

Buffalo Bills

Tre’Davious White

CB

LSU

****

SEC

28

Dallas Cowboys

Taco Charlton

DE

Michigan

****

Big Ten

29

Cleveland Browns

David Njoku

TE

Miami

***

ACC

30

Pittsburgh Steelers

T.J. Watt

LB

Wisconsin

***

Big Ten

31

San Francisco 49ers

Reuben Foster

LB

Alabama

*****

SEC

32

New Orleans Saints

Ryan Ramczyk

OT

Wisconsin

N/R

Big Ten