Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to the SEC’s playoff aspirations, based on the now-retired Homeland Security Advisory System. (Here’s a longer explanation.)

Have you heard nothing is certain but death and taxes?

Well, it’s like that for the Florida State football team the last two seasons, except it’s wins and controversies.

FSU has won 25 consecutive games since Jameis Winston became the team’s quarterback as a true freshman in 2013. The defending national champions are poised to earn a spot in the national semifinals if the team can avoid disaster.

Go ahead and write your Big Ten eulogy, as Ohio State and Nebraska shouldn’t be able to force their way into the conversation. Michigan State was the conference’s lone lotto ticket, and the Buckeyes destroyed that Saturday.

RELATED: Herbstreit boots Bama from top four

Same for Notre Dame, which tanked against Arizona State. The Fighting Irish had a weak schedule anyway and never had a real chance after falling at Florida State.

The Pac-12 and Big 12, meanwhile, seem more like sure things each week. Oregon can waltz into the Pac-12 title game, where Arizona State has a chance to make it winner-take-all for a playoff spot. Similarly, both TCU and Baylor can present strong cases as Big 12 co-champions if they win out.

Florida State, Oregon and TCU look like playoff teams right now, while Baylor and Arizona State are tough challengers too. At this point the SEC should gladly accept one of the four playoff spots and hope it can prove itself in a playoff.

Scanning The Good Guys: And then there were two.

Auburn’s close-game luck reverted to the mean Saturday against Texas A&M as the Tigers defense finally cost the team a chance at an SEC West title and a College Football Playoff spot.

Now Alabama and Mississippi State represent the SEC’s only two teams with hope to make the four-team playoff field. Of course, the Tide host the Bulldogs next week. If Mississippi State wins, the hopes of the entire conference ride on Dak Prescott and his temamates winning the Egg Bowl and the SEC championship game.

A Bama win keeps alive the possibility of a two-bid conference. In any case, what we suspected for a long time now is certain: either the Iron Bowl or Egg Bowl, or perhaps both, will include a team fighting for a playoff spot.

Now for the terrorists.

THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE

Severe risk of terrorist attacks.

Florida State: All the Seminoles have to do is prove they’re the best team in the state of Florida, beat Boston College and win a likely rematch with Duke in the ACC championship and they’re in the playoff. Florida is playing better, but the Miami Hurricanes may have the best chance of knocking Jameis Winston and FSU off the throne prior to the postseason. Duke Johnson is playing like a maniac right now. Johnson already would be Miami’s all-time leader in yards from scrimmage had he not broken his ankle in the third quarter last year at FSU after rushing for 97 yards against a dominant defense. If Winston throws a few picks on the road, the game could stay close.

Oregon: Barring a catastrophic finish, Marcus Mariota should win the Heisman Trophy. Injuries have punched the Ducks in the beak this season. Elite NFL prospect and CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, All-American C Hroniss Grasu and TE Pharaoh Brown are the latest, as all three left Saturday night’s game against Utah. Yet Mariota gashed a good Utes defense for three touchdown passes and 114 rushing yards. Oregon now has scored at least 42 points in eight of 10 games. The Ducks have clinched the Pac-12 North title, and get games against Colorado and Oregon State to heal before facing the Pac-12 South champion.

TCU/Baylor: The Horned Frogs, along with Oregon, are the two hottest teams in college football. TCU crushed previous Big 12 frontrunner Kansas State, 41-20, on Saturday. With games against Kansas, Texas and Iowa State remaining, it’s likely the Horned Frogs will finish the season 11-1. The problem is that lone loss came in Waco, Texas, as Baylor erased a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to win, 61-58. Baylor still must play Oklahoma State and Kansas State. But if the teams win out, the playoff committee will have a headache of a decision. TCU beat Big Ten member Minnesota non-conference. The Golden Gophers are 7-2. Baylor beat MAC member Buffalo (3-6). Either way, the Big 12 will have a terrific argument for inclusion.

THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

High risk of terrorist attacks.

Arizona State: The Sun Devils have knocked Utah and Notre Dame out of playoff contention in consecutive weeks. Arizona State should cruise into the final weekend of the Pac-12 regular season at 10-1. If Arizona can win at Utah on Nov. 22, the Wildcats will host the Sun Devils for the Pac-12 South title and the right to face Oregon. If WR Jaelen Strong and ASU can knock off Arizona and Oregon, finishing 12-1 as the Pac-12 champion, it will be difficult for the committee to leave them out. The Pac-12 South may be the second-toughest division in football behind the SEC West, and its champion deserves strong consideration if it can beat the Ducks. But that’s a lot to ask of a team that isn’t the strongest statistically.

THREAT LEVEL: ELEVATED

Significant risk of terrorist attacks.

Ohio State: The win at Michigan State looks good on the resume, and surely the committee will take into account Braxton Miller’s injury, which knocked out the team’s senior starting quarterback right before the season. The Buckeyes, still reeling, lost to Virginia Tech on Sept. 6, but have recovered to win seven consecutive games. J.T. Barrett looks more and more like the next star Urban Meyer quarterback, perhaps on the level of Alex Smith and Tim Tebow. If the team blows out Minnesota (7-2) on the road next week and then eventually crushes Nebraska in the Big Ten championship, will that be enough?

Nebraska: Ameer Abdullah’s sprained ligament shouldn’t keep him out of Saturday’s game at Wisconsin, making for perhaps the best running back dual we’ve seen in years. But Randy Gregory is the team’s most talented player, and a potential Top 10 pick as a pass rusher. Bo Pelini seems to have put his shaky job status to bed. But can you believe a one-loss Nebraska team barely even registers on the national radar? Did the Cornhuskers make the wrong move escaping the Big 12 for the Big Ten?

THREAT LEVEL: GUARDED

General risk of terrorist attacks.

Marshall: The Thundering Herd must face a Rice team on a six-game winning streak Saturday. The Owls, of course, are the defending C-USA champions. The College Football Playoff committee did not include a team from the less-distinguished football conferences in its most recent Top 25, leaving us to speculate on which small-conference team has the inside track to a New Year’s Six bowl. For now, we suspect it’s Marshall, which remains one of three undefeated FBS teams — out of 128. But the Thundering Herd better keep winning big.

Colorado State: The Rams are relying on Utah State to knock off Boise State in the regular-season finale. Otherwise Colorado State could finish the season 11-1, 7-1 in the Mountain West Conference, but lose the Mountain Division tiebreaker thanks to a head-to-head loss to Boise State. But if CSU pulls out a division win and takes down the West Division winner in the MWC championship to finish 12-1, the team would have a case ahead of Marshall. CSU beat two power-conference teams in Colorado and Boston College, and the best team on Marshall’s schedule can’t match Boise State.

THREAT LEVEL: LOW

Low risk of terrorist attacks.

SMU: The Mustangs rank 128th out of 128 in average points scored and average points allowed. They just lost by 10 to a Tulsa team that entered Saturday at 1-7. The Golden Hurricane hadn’t won a game since Aug. 28, in double overtime against Tulane. There are still four games left in this pitiful football death march. No wonder June Jones hit the eject button long ago.

Colorado: Remember when the Buffaloes jettisoned athletic director Mike Bohn and football coach Jon Embree after a 1-11 season in 2012? The program won a national championship less than 30 years ago. But instead of recovering, the program is right back where it was (with the exception of a loss to an FCS team), this time headed to 2-10. Oregon and Utah should deliver the final blows to a team already out cold.

Georgia State: The Panthers are strong contenders for the worst team in all of FBS along with SMU. And at least the Mustangs have a future. GSU just got blown out, 45-21, by a Troy team that entered the game 1-8. The Panthers’ only win came by one point against Abeline Christian on Aug. 27. Abeline Christain, of course, hails from the powerhouse Southland Conference, of which I’m sure all of you can name its members. That was literally the first FBS game of the season, and it came against a lousy FCS program, so it practically doesn’t count. Now GSU gets Clemson.