SDS Roundtable: Which SEC team's win projection is the most off-base?
Each SDS roundtable discussion involves the SDS staff providing individual answers and comments to questions covering a wide range of sports and non-sports topics. In this discussion, we ask the question: Which SEC team’s win projection is the most off-base?
A bit of background …
BetOnline.ag recently released its preseason over/under win totals for every SEC team. A few jumped out as too optimistic or too conservative. Which do we think was the most off-base?
Here are the 2020 Projected Team Win Totals and betting odds for every team in the SEC. Who’s your lock?
(@betonline_ag ) pic.twitter.com/vyyKgKvRYJ
— Saturday Down South (@SDS) April 20, 2020
Connor O’Gara, Senior national columnist
I hate that Auburn number. Over the course of last offseason, I went from being extremely down on the Tigers to talking myself into predicting them to win 9 games. This offseason, I think I’m becoming more and more pessimistic about the Tigers’ 2020 outlook.
Repeating 9 wins in the regular season seems like such a tall task for a variety of reasons. The talent lost on that defensive line with Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson is obvious.
But really, it’s the uncertainty in the trenches. Replacing 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line is a troubling thought. Last year, Gus Malzahn kept his job because of how well the Tigers hung with elite competition. The play up front was the foundation of that. Now, you’re asking a mostly new offensive line to protect Bo Nix playing with a new play-caller in Chad Morris. Yeah, I have concerns about that.
That’s before mentioning the fact that the Tigers have 4 games vs. teams that figure to start in the top 15 (Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M) with tricky matchups against fringe Top 25 UNC and a road matchup against Mike Leach’s new-look Mississippi State squad. Am I betting the farm on Auburn to essentially split those 6 games? Nope. Not this year.
Chris Marler, The SDS Podcast co-host
The most accurate win totals I see are LSU and Auburn. LSU plays Texas, Alabama, A&M, Auburn and Florida. And they just lost 1.5 coordinators, a Heisman Trophy winner, and almost 83% of its offensive production. To be honest, 9.5 wins is the ceiling. Then there’s Auburn. Surprisingly the line is set at -210 for the over. However, they have back-to-back games vs. LSU/UGA and Bama/A&M. They lost a lot on defense and will also face a really good UNC offense in early September. Those two numbers seem pretty spot on.
Michael Bratton, News editor
Kentucky is the best bet on the board to go over, while Auburn is the best bet to go under.
Kentucky’s defense looks to be much improved next season and the Wildcats feature a deeper pool of quarterbacks and running backs than in recent seasons. The schedule is key when picking over/unders and the Wildcats are current favorites to win in 7 matchups (vs. Eastern Michigan, vs. Kent State, vs. South Carolina, vs. Eastern Illinois, vs. Vanderbilt, at Missouri, at Louisville) and could conceivably win at Florida, at Auburn, at Tennessee and against Mississippi State.
Auburn’s defense won’t be better than it was last season and Gus Malzahn hired Chad Morris, so it’s safe to say the offense isn’t getting much better next season. The Tigers will be rebuilding both lines of scrimmage and its stout secondary from last season. I’m not convinced Auburn makes a bowl game next season, take the under while you can.
Neil Blackmon, Florida columnist
The most inaccurate? That Tennessee number sure is high.
Sure, the Vols don’t have to play Georgia State in Neyland this fall, which is a big break, but there are at least 4 preseason top 10 teams on the slate in Oklahoma (in Norman), Florida, Alabama and Georgia.
That leaves very little margin for error elsewhere, and I just don’t see how the Vols get through the quartet of at South Carolina, at Arkansas, Kentucky and Mizzou unscathed. Lose all 4 of the top 10 games and 1 more, and they hit the under. Lose 2 and it’s a 6-win campaign, which sounds about right for a program devoid of perimeter playmakers and replacing plenty of guys on defense.
Still, I don’t think that number is as inaccurate as the 8.5 I see by Auburn.
The Tigers will go 4-0 in the nonconference, which means they only must go 5-3 in the league to survive. They get Georgia early, which is a huge break this season, and they get A&M at home. Win one of those and handle business in games where they will be favored (Arkansas, Kentucky, at Ole Miss, at Miss State) and they are already over the number.
I think that’s a 10-win team on The Plains and you won’t convince me otherwise.
Adam Spencer, Newsletter editor
Honestly, I think Vanderbilt’s total is a little high. Yes, I think the Commodores will struggle to win 4 games this year. Mercer in Week 1 is a gimme, but outside of that, the Commodores will have trouble finding victories. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them go winless in SEC play. Then, in nonconference action, a trip to Kansas State looks like a loss. A home game against Colorado State isn’t a guaranteed win, and a Week 12 home game against Louisiana Tech will be trickier than it seems.
This all comes down to Vandy’s QB situation. There has been a mass exodus of quarterbacks from the Vandy program this offseason, and losing spring practices hasn’t helped them find a potential starter. This could be a 1- or 2-win season for the Commodores.
Chris Wright, Executive editor
First, I love how nobody can agree on what to expect from Auburn.
That’s the most Auburn football thing ever. I say every year that I’m not going to go back, I’m not going to believe, and there I am, 2 a.m., looking at the athletes, the 4.3 40s, the NFL-ready defensive linemen and thinking: Of course Auburn is going to win it all! And then the Tigers somehow lose 2 games they shouldn’t. But I am staying away from all things Auburn this time, absolutely convinced that the Tigers will win between 5 and 12 games.
I think a couple of these totals are too low. I think Arkansas will win at least 4 games. I think 10-2 should be the floor for Texas A&M this season.
But the one projection I think that is the most off-base is Georgia.
The Dawgs’ over/under is 10.5 wins. I’ll take the under.
If Kirby Smart goes 11-1 in the regular season, this will be his best coaching job to date. He has the defense to do it. But there are so many questions surrounding that offense, starting at quarterback.
Draft analysts already are projecting Jamie Newman as a 1st-round pick next April. That would be quite a story for the 3-star QB who was the No. 649 player in his 2016 recruiting class. Alas, many of those same analysts projected Jake Fromm to be a 1st-rounder this year, too. So accept those opinions for what they’re worth.
I’m in complete wait-and-see mode with Newman.
Talk to me after he faces Alabama in Week 3. I can see Georgia losing to Alabama, Florida and Auburn before I see Newman leading the Dawgs to an 11-1 season and 4th consecutive SEC East title.
Previous roundtable discussions:
- If you could change 1 thing about college football, what would it be?
- What are you watching right now?
- Who is your favorite SEC football player of all-time?
- What are your 3 favorite postseason moments involving SEC teams?
- Which 4 SEC athletes are on your Mount Rushmore?
- What is your most painful sports memory?
- The greatest team I ever saw …
- Which school’s all-time position group is the best in SEC history?
- Who are your way-too-early picks to make the College Football Playoff?
- If and when the SEC expands, which 2 teams should it add?
- Who is your pick to win the SEC East, SEC West in 2020?
- Who is your favorite player from every SEC program?
- Who is your favorite SEC personality to follow on Twitter?
- Which SEC program produced best pro sports duo?
- Which prop bet would you risk stimulus check on?
- Which former assistant is first to beat Nick Saban?
- Which SEC helmet absolutely needs to be redesigned?
- Which Day 2 or 3 SEC pick will have best NFL career?
- Which SEC 1st-round pick will have best rookie season?
- Which SEC player could go No. 1 overall in 2021 draft?
- Who throws for more TDs as rookie: Burrow or Tua?
Right now, I’ll take the under in all of them. ):
“I can see Georgia losing to Alabama, Florida and Auburn before I see Newman leading the Dawgs to an 11-1 season and 4th consecutive SEC East title.”
That’s a pretty loose example of “wait and see”.
Chris Wright doesn’t think the Dawgs will do much this season? He thinks Georgia winning 10 games is too high?
Stop the presses!
I am shocked… SHOCKED that gambling is going on in here!
What a ‘turd lover.
I’m in disbelief as well. How can this be? I thought the whole planet agreed that Newman is better than 2019 Burrow and Monken is better than 2019 Brady and of course Kirby is the bestest in the universe.
2020 UGA undefeated national champs, Newman for Heisman and #1 NFL pick and Monken will be elected president.
Puppy fan will never have to hear 1980 again
Good God you are obsessed. Day after day.
Man balls you’re the first and only person to think that. But it will be four in a row.
Being completely owned by UGA has broken you. Ya hate to see it.
102-41
Raise your hand if you’re shocked that a floriduh columnist picks UT to only win six games…
PS while also getting a Georgia State jab in too. True professional there folks.
I hear a Florida douche manufacturer has trade marked “Neil Blackmon… when ordinary douches just won’t stop the stank”.
Now that’s funny – probably not true , but FUNNY! Our local Waffle House had a waitress about ten years ago whose name ON HER NAME TAG was “Miss Stankey”! She was a cute little thang with a great sense of humor.
When legitimate periodicals kicked him to the curb, Chris started his own site where he reigns supreme and can write whatever he wants without ramification. He’s such a turd. Wannabe Paul Feinbaum.
I’ll never forget Wright’s personal crusade against UCF. While pointing out certain key members of the LSU secondary did not play, Chris didn’t even feel it was worthy to mention that UCF was starting a backup QB. Hallmark of great journalism right there- over emphasize the facts that favor your personal biases and minimize or ignore altogether the ones that don’t.
At least Adam’s homerism is mostly just positivity about his own team. That snobbish hack prefers to just insult other teams.
Totally Awe-Struck ! Tennessee’s Quarterback situation does bring some ??? as to their Win/loss record in 2020. Otherwise Jeremy is recruiting well…we’ll see…after the Georgia & Alabama games exactly where the Vol Program is this year.
I’ll take the under on Auburn, for starters. Like the SDS writers, I’m picking on Auburn this year. With their schedule, and their losses in the trenches, 9 wins looks very optimistic.
So our experts have Auburn narrowed down to somewhere between a losing season and a national championship. Who can blame them? Is any school more unpredictable than Auburn on an annual basis?
Absolutely no team more unpredictable in any conference than Auburn. Not getting blown out by LSU (though the stats say otherwise), losing to UGA 2 weeks later and beating Bama 2 weeks after that.
Additionally, putting up the country’s best defensive effort against LSU but then letting Mac Jones score nearly 50 in your own house.
I don’t think my health could take being an Auburn fan.
You get used to it.. lol
Alcohol helps.
That and after a while, you just sort of roll with it. Oh, we just knocked off two top-5 teams in a row? Cool. Oh, we just blew a 20 point lead to a 6-6 team? Sounds about right.
That’s life for an Auburn fan.
I just lol’d at that, culmo80
I’d take UK over 6.5 all day. I think this will be a better team than the one that won 10 games in 2018. Of course, that doesn’t automatically translate to more wins, but it should translate to at least 7.
It’s going to sound like a homer pick but I’m over on the 8.5 from auburn. Last years team won 9 and that was with a tougher schedule. Let’s say 2 losses come from uga and bama. That leaves UNC, LSU and A&M. UNC to me is a year away and I think we’ll at least split the home games with A&M and LSU. Last year’s o line was terrible so it doesn’t bother me that we have to replace 4 starters. I trust Steele enough to have the defense prepared and we’re actually returning 6 or 7 starters so it won’t be a huge drop off.
I agree. They’re replacing a bad OL with a ?. There’s too much returning talent on defense for there to be much, if any, drop off.
Exactly. Last year online was supposed to be a strength because of everyone returning and it was the worst position group by far. And yeah the defense returns Big Kat and Miller on the DL, pappoe, Britt and McClain and backer and tutt and mccreary in the secondary. Smoke and Sherwood have played a ton of ball too so they aren’t newbies by any means.
Gus Malzahn(Teacher) & Chad Morris(Student)…not sure about that marriage. But I do think that Bo will run more this year(look at Clemson’s offense-Chad installed it). At mid’season we will all have some answers as to this situation.
Auburn returns too much talent and experience to do worse than 8-4. As much as I think they should go 10-2 with the schedule, Gus will find a way to choke a game somewhere. 9-3 with the pending annual bowl loss.
I’m thinking losses to Alabama, Georgia, LSU and A&M. That’s 8-4, assuming they beat Kentucky. That’s par for the course at Auburn.
No way we lose both of toughest home games. JH will be rocking.
agreed i think they split A/M and LSU at least, but UNC will be tough and maybe a suprise against UK (like UT in 2018) or Miss St. 8-4 isn’t out of the question
True. Auburn has black magic working in their favor at JH.
That UT game was embarrassing but after an embarrassing loss to miss st the week prior and the game being at 11am during fall break it doesn’t surprise me looking back.
17Tide- wish we could find some black magic on the road
JH may have black magic against Bama. LSU has taken 7 of 9 from Auburn, and 10 of 13. Auburn loses to LSU again. A&M should have won the Auburn game last year, and with everything they have coming back, they’ll do it this year. Of course, I could be mistaken, that’s why they play the games.
A&M wasn’t close to beating Auburn last year so you are mistaken..
The 2018 aTm game was the lockbox game. Last year was not nearly as close as the final score suggests.
I see little chance Texas A&M beats us. We’ve got the home field. We beat them last year with a mediocre Bo Nix. He’ll be much improved in 2020. And, we’ve got the momentum in the series. Now beating LSU will be a lot harder. I see the Myles Brennan + Ja’Marr Chase combo produceing numbers like Mac Jones + Jaylen Waddle against us last year.
Don’t forget Terrace Marshall. Arik Gilbert too. Plus a few more. Brennan should put up some good numbers this year.
Arik Gilbert is going to be an absolute terror. The only 2021 prospect I can think of who could potentially guard a guy like him is James Williams, and even he’s significantly skinnier.
Hope y’all get Williams…unless we can!
God knows we need him badly.
I guess Chris got me thinking pessimistically, but now that I think about it, UGA vs Auburn in October is pretty intriguing considering both are breaking in new OCs and revamping their O-lines. I will say though, not having to face Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson makes it a heckuva lot more doable-looking, plus it’s in Athens.
In a way the Bama game will tell us a lot, and in a way it’ll tell us pretty much nothing at all.
UK on the over easy. That’s about as close of a gimme as you can get.
i’m still torn on auburn. this team replaces a lot on the trenches, but has a returning qb and solid-to-good playmakers on the outside. i just don’t know how gus will fix the o-line. not too worried about steele and the defense, he’ll get them back into form. L’s to UGA and Bama are given and warranted, but i think UNC’s offense puts pressure on Nix to succeed, and idk if he does. 9 wins may be off by a little with LSU, A/M, and UNC all there as well as Miss St and UK.
Dont think UGA loses to Auburn, but Newman really needed the time he’s missing to get acclimated with Monken’s offense, which will hurt him in t-town, but he’ll be fine before WLOCP. UGA-UF is a toss-up in my opinion. would avoid this bet for UGA. UF though i would take it for a push bet at 10 or over.
I’m probably a homer but i think LSU picks off UT, A/M, and one of AUB/UF to get to 10 wins. do not think the offense will go back to pre-2019 where we were getting 8-9 wins even with a pathetic run-first offense. talent level is high enough to eventually absorb the losses to the NFL after a few weeks, and LSU is fortunate to have a relatively easy first 5, even with UT.
cannot wait for november when LSU, A/M, Bama, and Auburn all play each other in the final month. (except for aggies and auburn in mid-october)
I think Missouri will have a really rough year. I would go a bit over on Sam Pittman and Arkansas. I just think he’s a perfect fit there and he’s got a pretty good coaching staff.
Leach and Kiffin are total wildcards because they do have some talent to work with and they do things offensively that can steal games here and there.
For me, Auburn remains the biggest wildcard. They could lose just one or they could lose as many as five. They DO have a lot of talent, on paper. Does the Gus/Chad dynamic work? I’ll tell you one thing: They better not take Mac Brown and North Carolina lightly in Week 2.
And of course Georgia. I’ve said enough on other articles about the Jamie Newman experiment. Their defense will be so good that they’ll win 9 games regardless of how their offense does.
Nashville…I have been feeling the same about the Newman-Tryout & the lack of Spring Practice hurts a lot. I’ll go over on Kentucky, as their team seems stronger this year, especially on Defense, plus they will have(barring more injuries) a Quarterback. South Carolina seems spot-on…with their current Head Coach, there’s no more to say.
I like Muschamp and, except for the Florida game, I would like to see him do well. I think he has a good quarterback, the Bobo hire is great and they’re always going to have some talent on defense with his recruiting.
The big problem is that –Missouri and Vanderbilt aside — the East isn’t sitting still. It’s getting tougher and tougher. Tennessee is still a few recruiting classes away from Georgia and Florida but they’ll be a lot for South Carolina to handle. Kentucky is very solid on both lines of scrimmage and extremely well coached.
I’m afraid I agree with you on the record, but I suspect the weird 2020 season circumstances may buy Muschamp another year after 2020.
Tennessee isn’t “replacing plenty of guys on defense.” They lose 3 guys and get back their best defensive lineman who missed last year with an injury. Also probably get back Jeremy Banks who could step in at LB.
SC doesn’t lose to that ignant ridneck JP at tenn again, WM gotta be > than him or else. bye-bye
well bye…
JP is widening the gap over SC in case you haven’t noticed. Agreed, bye bye.
SDS Roundtable: Which SEC team’s win projection is the most off-base?
Chris Marler, SDS Podcast co-host: “The most accurate win totals I see are LSU and Auburn…Those two numbers seem pretty spot on.”
Stick to the podcast format Chris. It looks like you misunderstood the question.
Yea, I thought that was a weird response too. Kept reading it to see if it made any sense. But nope!
Thanks! I’m sure you saw the original email and how it was phrased, so I’ll take this very much to heart. Enjoy 4th place in the division this year!
Chris, it the original email was different than the topic at hand within the article, why not just say that’s where the confusion came from?
It’s easily explainable. No need to take at the Aggies by pointing out they’ll be 4th in the West this year! You’re right, but why take the shot?? Lol
Take a shot at the Aggies…
Think Texas A&M’s record is overrated. I haven’t seen enough at all to make me beleive they’ll win some of those games.
“Draft analysts already are projecting Jamie Newman as a 1st-round pick next April. That would be quite a story for the 3-star QB who was the No. 649 player in his 2016 recruiting class. Alas, many of those same analysts projected Jake Fromm to be a 1st-rounder this year, too. So accept those opinions for what they’re worth.” HAHAHAHA! Well there Chris, how about you do an article about your sterling prediction record since you’re apparently the beacon of accurate prognostications. Maybe one day you SDS writers will learn that just because you got an A in grammar, doesn’t mean you know diddly-poo about football.
To DaGherk: you must not read many of the article if you think they got an A in grammar.
I think UK, Bama, and UF are the best over bets. Don’t see Bama losing more than 1. Don’t see UK losing more than 5 and don’t see the Gators losing more than 2 (somewhat easy schedule compared to the last two seasons).
First off, Ga isnt losing to Bama, Fla and Auburn so forget that. I’d still take the under expecting 10 wins.
Fla schedule is easy. I can see them winning 10 so I’d take the over.
I’d also take over on Arkansas. Coach Sam will get em 4 wins at least
One of the writers mentions how no one can get a feel for how Auburn will do.
Isnt that every year?
I’m not worried about the losses on defense for Auburn. Yes, Davidson, Coe, and Brown (among others) were fantastic, Steele has done a remarkable job recruiting and building the defense. There might be some dropoff in defensive stats, but not enough to swing that many games.
It’s the offense that continues to confound everyone. Yes, we lost most of our offensive line … but … did you see those guys play? It was horrendous! It’s not like we lost a bunch of award finalists in that group. They were about as disjointed and incapable as it gets. Sure, things can always get worse, but I see things remaining the same, so there’s no change there.
What really matters is if Nix can find the accuracy he was lacking last year. Is Chad Morris really the QB whisperer that some are saying he is? Eh, we’ll see. Will our offense have a more mature look (getting away from Malzahn’s inept system)? We’ll see.
In short … nobody really knows. Our schedule is slightly easier this year than last. UNC isn’t on par with Oregon, Kentucky is tougher than people think but not as good as Florida, we also have to play both UGA and Bama away and we haven’t won at either place in quite some time. And LSU has our number.
I think 8-4 sounds about right.
Go figure, everybody’s win projection total is overrated except their own team.
As an Auburn fan, I am rather pleased that people are putting us low on the totem pole. We always shock people when they predict that. I would be more worried if they picked us to do better.
If Mizzou only wins 5 games that’s not at all worth firing Odom for.
That is okay for them to think Mizzou fired Odom to go backwards!
The whole point of the firing was the offense was so bad and Drinkwitz came along just in the right time. Some South Carolina fans really wanted him in a year but now it is off the market. He is an offensive coach. He will be installing the offense and the whole offensive coaches have been replaced. That is a huge upgrade and the defensive coaches stayed the same. Also another reason for firing Odom was he was unable to get better recruiting class and the offensive side was bad due to bad coaching. Drinkwitz is a pretty good recruiter. Mizzou had to fire him or it would have been a slow decline and Mizzou would have been Arkansas 2.0!
Or Tennessee 2.0 before the Pruitt hired. See how difficult Tennessee getting back to winning ways?
My first instinct with over/under is to go to the lowest totals. I started with Vandy, and they are going to be horrible again. I would be surprised if they win 3 games. Then I thought there is no way Arkansas only wins 3 games again, but then I went and looked at their schedule. They have a tricky opener against Nevada and a non-conference game against Notre Dame. If they lose both of those they would need 2 conference wins and I don’t know if that was possible. I would stay away from both of those bets.
Of the really high numbers I would stay away from Bama. Saban has really struggled to replace Pruitt at D-Coordinator. The talent is still there, but losing so many coaches over the past 5 years is starting to catch up. I still think they will win 10 games, but unless they get some elite quarterback play I don’t see 11 or 12.
in bama’s defense they benefit greatly from hosting uga and auburn this year. i still think the offense will be great with mac jones or bryce young. defense will get better with dylan moses back and improvement. would be shocked if bama lost 2
Only way that happens is if UGA comes into town and shuts down Mac Jones in the open with stifling defense. It’s possible but unlikely.