SEC Bowl projections following Week 11: Alabama jumps in, South Carolina secures eligibility
The 2024-25 College Football Playoff is almost impossible to get a good read on right now. Let’s recap the top developments across the past couple days.
First, Ole Miss beat the brakes off Georgia in a result that I don’t think many saw coming. If you did, congrats! – you called Georgia dropping its first game to a non-Alabama opponent since 2020. Truly, it’s hard to come away from Saturday more impressed with Lane Kiffin’s squad.
Another big development was Alabama claiming LSU’s previous spot in the playoff, kicking the Tigers to the curb entirely. That brings us to the complete mess that is the SEC standings after Week 11.
Is there a clear favorite to win the conference right now? It seems like the answer is an emphatic “no.” There’s a very real scenario where 7 SEC teams finish 10-2, and many of them have wins over other top contenders.
Get ready for some nonsense: Tennessee could defeat Georgia and did beat Alabama, which beat Georgia, which could beat Tennessee and did beat Texas – but don’t forget about Ole Miss, which just beat Georgia but has 2 losses to Kentucky and LSU. Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M all control their own destiny. It’s as jumbled a conference race as there has been in recent memory. Should’ve championed a 9-game SEC schedule, Greg Sankey.
The SEC getting more than 4 teams into the playoff is unlikely with how Indiana, SMU, BYU and Notre Dame’s resumes are shaping out. Mizzou is a long shot and would need some serious help, and Texas A&M would have to down Texas at the end of the season. Even then, the Aggies would need help – so we’ll leave those 2 out for now.
Georgia vs. Tennessee is an elimination game for Georgia, but Tennessee still has life if it loses thanks to its win over Alabama. It’s concerning how much a 4-man Ole Miss rush affected Carson Beck and the Bulldogs offense, especially where Tennessee’s defense is arguably even better. In other words, hammer Vols +8.5.
The only non-SEC note for the weekend: Look out for the Buffs over in the Big 12. Colorado is making their case for a spot in the Big 12 title game, where BYU will stand in the way. It’s hard to go against BYU’s pure determination to win football games at this point, so we’ll leave the Buffs in the “maybe” category.
On to the remainder of the bowl projections, where there has been a slight shift in the hierarchy. Georgia now takes the Citrus Bowl with South Carolina elevating to the ReliaQuest Bowl. The Gamecocks are in excellent position to crack 8 wins and are among the most underrated teams in the country.
Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Florida all stayed put compared to last week’s projections with LSU falling to the Gator Bowl against a good Louisville team. Mizzou vs. Michigan are set for a battle in Nashville at the Music City Bowl.
Until next week, college football.
College Football Playoff
Sugar Bowl: Oregon vs. 8/9 winner
Rose Bowl: Texas vs. 7/10 winner
Peach Bowl: Miami vs. 6/11 winner
Fiesta Bowl: BYU vs. 5/12 winner
First Round
From Columbus, Ohio: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Indiana
From Knoxville, Tennessee: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Boise State
From South Bend, Indiana: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Ole Miss
From Tuscaloosa, Alabama: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Penn State
The Rest
Citrus Bowl: Georgia vs. Iowa
ReliaQuest Bowl: South Carolina vs. Minnesota
Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Colorado
Texas Bowl: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech
Music City Bowl: Mizzou vs. Michigan
Gator Bowl: LSU vs. Louisville
Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati
Birmingham Bowl: Florida vs. Wake Forest
Not terribly interested in playing Boise State. That’s a tough out.
I’d actually love to play Boise State.
Minus the blue carpet.
Says Citrus Bowl: Georgia
Rent free.
Alabama is seeded too high.
“Yeah, sure” say Sankey’s friends on the “selection” committee…
no lower than 8 and Alabama doesn’t have to travel; the “selection” committee exists to make the path for an SEC team easier than some team that doesn’t belong in Sankey’s Ponzi scheme scam!
Please, get a clue in regard to teams that will play in 2nd round bowl games.
ROSE BOWL – Highest seeded Big Ten team
SUGAR BOwl – Highest seeded SEC team
Peach Bowl – Highest seeded ACC team
Fiesta Bowl – Higher seeded B12 or G5 team.
STOP embarrassing yourself. In your scenario,Oregon would play in the Rose Bowl. Texas in the Sugar Bowl. This is not a secret. This has been announced by the PO Committee.
Even if higher ranked teams had a choice between the Rose, Sugar, Peach, and Fiesta Bowls, why would No. 1 Oregon choose to play in the Sugar Bowl and not the Rose Bowl?
SMH
Also, Indiana does not play Ohio State on Saturday It plays Ohio State on 11/23. Indiana is off this week.
This Saturday, Ohio State plays Northwestern in Wrigley Field. FYI, Wrigley Field is in Chicago, on the North Side.
Whatever they’re paying you …
Besides Oregon though, it says Georgia for the Citrus Bowl. That could be accurate do you think?
Rent free.
The real joke is that Wrigley Field is barely a regulation football field. One end zone is very dangerous. Not sure why they can’t play at Soldier Field if they want a Chicago game.
SC will be in the CFP, not the reliaquest bowl playing Minnesota…
Have the best minds from the DII plan the bracket. They have the experience. If they use bi(s) they should reflect the lack of losses 1 for 1.
How would A&M need help if they won out and went to the SECCG? There are 3 other SEC teams that wouldn’t be playing for a championship listed in your CFP rankings. If texas lost to A&M, no way they should stay in the CFP projections. They would’ve lost to the only 2 teams they played with a pulse.
How is Florida going to a bowl game? If the beat FSU they will only be at 5 wins. They are not going to beat LSU or Ole Miss.