Ahh, the beauty of simplicity.

Using the NCAA’s strength of schedule method, which is a calculation of the combined win/loss records for all of a team’s opponents from the previous season, can be a quick and easy way to figure out how difficult a team’s schedule could be this season.

Sure, that method doesn’t account for any personnel changes between seasons and does not account for the strength of the schedule that each opponent played. For example, a 6-6 record from a SEC team is not the same as a 6-6 record from a Sun Belt team.

Recently, FBSSchedules.com ran a story that included the strength of schedule for all 128 FBS teams using this method.

Here is how the calculations shook out for SEC teams in 2015 based on the results of their opponents’ 2014 seasons:

2. Arkansas – 99-57, 63.46%
4. Alabama – 96-58, 62.34%
5. Kentucky – 95-58, 62.09%
8. Auburn – 92-60, 60.53%
10. Texas A&M – 93-61, 60.39%
10. Georgia – 93-61, 60.39%
22. South Carolina – 89-64, 58.17%
24. Tennessee – 89-65, 57.79%
26. Mississippi State – 89-66, 57.42%
28. LSU – 87-65, 57.24%
29. Vanderbilt – 87-66, 56.86%
33. Ole Miss – 87-67, 56.49%
41. Florida – 86-68, 55.84%
73. Missouri – 78-73, 51.66%

Some observations:

  • For all the “hate” the SEC receives from other Power 5 conferences for its out-of-conference scheduling, there sure does seem to be more SEC teams at the top of this strength of schedule list than any other conference. In fact, the SEC has six teams in the Top 10 of this list, with the next closest being the Pac-12 and Big Ten with two each.
  • Should we pump the brakes on the Arkansas hype train for 2015? The Razorbacks are a media favorite in the preseason thanks to a strong finish to last season and the caliber of players returning. But Arkansas trails only Washington in terms of schedule difficulty based on this method. Is it possible that the Hogs improve from last season but are considered fortunate to again go 7-6?
  • Poor Kentucky fans. Just when you think this might be the year that Mark Stoops gets the Wildcats back into postseason play, something like the team’s strength of schedule brings cause for more concern. If the Wildcats are going bowling this season, they likely will have earned it.
  • Could the pessimistic outlook for Florida’s 2015 season be exaggerated? While teams like Arkansas and Tennessee have been trendy picks to outperform their ’14 seasons, Florida has been cast aside as a rebuild project for new coach Jim McElwain. But the Gators rank 13th out of 14 SEC teams on the strength of schedule list and will benefit from as many as seven starters returning from a really good defense. Is it possible that this team really could win eight or nine games this season playing under a coach with some offensive creativity?
  • Ah ha! We’ve caught Mizzou red-handed here. Is the secret to their back-to-back SEC East championships the softness of their strength of schedule? Well, maybe not exactly. After all, the Tigers did lose an out-of-conference tilt to an Indiana team that won just one game in the Big Ten and still managed to win the SEC East in 2014. The presence of UConn and Vanderbilt, who won five games between them in 2014, really weighs down the winning percentage for Tigers opponents.