What is your team’s win probability this week? Below is a list of every SEC team’s win probability for Week 10, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

  • Arkansas (25.2 percent): The Razorbacks got back on track last week with a win over UAB, and they now return to SEC play with four more chances to record their first SEC win of the Bret Bielema era. Unfortunately for Arkansas, it’ll take on No. 1 Mississippi State, which has won all but one of its SEC games by at least 14 points.
  • Auburn (43.8 percent): Auburn survived a scare last week from South Carolina, and it now turns the page to an SEC West elimination game against Ole Miss this weekend in Oxford. Both teams were slated in the CFP Selection Committee’s inaugural Top 4 playoff spots, but Auburn is considered an underdog by the FPI likely due to playing this game on the road.
  • Florida (22.9 percent): Florida had to weeks to put out its dumpster fire of a game against Missouri, but times are troubling in Gainesville nonetheless. The head coach is hanging on by a thread, the quarterback is making his first career start and the opponent has a national championship in its sights. Georgia will be without Todd Gurley once again, but it’s no surprise to see Florida is the SEC’s biggest underdog in Week 10 according to the FPI.
  • Georgia (77.1 percent): The Bulldogs are well rested after last week’s bye, and they haven’t missed a beat in Gurley’s absence with convincing wins over Missouri and Arkansas. Both the Tigers and Razorbacks are far better teams than Florida, and in an intense rivalry game on a neutral site look for Georgia to come out with something to prove against the Gators.
  • Kentucky (34.3 percent): The Wildcats tested Mississippi State last weekend in Lexington, but they’ll take their show on the road once again for a difficult road test against Missouri. These two teams are not far apart in terms of talent, but Kentucky has not won a road game outside the state of Kentucky since the 2009 season, which is likely why its win probability is so low.
  • Mississippi (56.2 percent): Ole Miss lost in heartbreaking fashion to LSU in Death Valley last week, but it’ll need to leave that loss in the past as it focuses on a crucial showdown with Auburn this weekend. Ole Miss will have a home-field advantage and the SEC’s best defense, but if it hasn’t fully recovered from the loss to LSU it could take on a second straight defeat to end its title hopes.
  • Mississippi State (74.8 percent): The Bulldogs have been the SEC’s most dominant team to this point in the season, and they’ll have the privilege of taking on the SEC West’s cellar dweller in Arkansas this weekend in Starkville. Dak Prescott tweaked his ankle last week but appears to be fine to play Saturday, which should be all Mississippi State needs to continue the SEC’s longest active win streak.
  • Missouri (65.7 percent): The Missouri offense has been horrendous in SEC play, but the Tigers have found ways to win back to back games over Florida and Vanderbilt to remain in the hunt for a second straight SEC East crown. If Mizzou hopes to contend for the division, it must take care of Kentucky at home, which means Maty Mauk must finally step up and lead his team as many expected him to early in the year.
  • South Carolina (63.4 percent): The Gamecocks almost stunned Auburn on its home field last week despite a defense that allowed Auburn to score touchdowns on six straight possessions. South Carolina won’t have quite as tough a test in facing Tennessee, which boasts the SEC’s worst offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback in Josh Dobbs, but it must win this game to avoid finishing the year with a losing record.
  • Tennessee (36.6 percent): The Vols impressed in a 14-point loss to Alabama last week, and it appears the Dobbs era in Knoxville has officially begun. It may take him a game or two to begin feeling comfortable in the SEC, but the future is now for Butch Jones and Tennessee, beginning this week against a vulnerable South Carolina defense.
  • Texas A&M (98.6): Texas A&M had a much needed week off last week, and this week it’ll get to ease its way back into the swing of things with a non-conference game against Louisiana-Monroe. The Aggies have officially turned to Kyle Allen as their starting quarterback, so a game against ULM should be the perfect opportunity for the offense to transition from one starter to another.
  • Vanderbilt (64.5 percent): The Commodores are 2-1 in non-conference games and 0-5 in SEC play, so it is important Vandy takes advantage of its last non-conference game of the season this week against Old Dominion. The Dores are given just a 65 percent chance of beating the FBS’ newest team (and I rounded up to get to 65), but the way Johnny McCrary looked under center last week against a feisty Missouri defense should give Vanderbilt fans plenty of confidence heading into Saturday’s action.

Note: Alabama and LSU have open dates this week.