What is your team’s win probability this week? Below is a list of every SEC team’s win probability for Week 13, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

  • Alabama (100.0 percent): The Crimson Tide is a week removed from handing Mississippi State its first loss of the season. This week, it hosts Western Carolina in one of five FCS games throughout the conference. For the No. 1 team in the country, I’d say a 100 percent win probability is deserved.
  • Arkansas (38.3 percent): The Razorbacks have a tough test in front of them this week in facing a well-rested, top 10 Ole Miss team in Fayetteville. Arkansas will gain a boost from its Senior Day festivities and its first SEC win of the year last week, but the FPI really likes the Rebels in this matchup.
  • Auburn (99.9 percent): Auburn is also facing an FCS foe in Samford this week, but it only has a 99.9 percent win probability to Alabama’s 100 percent. Why? Auburn is coming off back to back losses, while Alabama is the nation’s new No. 1 team. Rest assured, neither team will lose before the Iron Bowl next week.
  • Florida (99.6 percent): It’s been a difficult week for the Gators, blowing a late lead to Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks one day before firing head coach Will Muschamp. The Gators take on Eastern Kentucky of the FCS and are a near-lock to win, but the tumultuous week is likely what docked Florida’s win probability a whopping 0.4 percent
  • Georgia (100.0 percent): Georgia is fresh off a 27-point dismantling of Auburn between the hedges in Week 12, and its reward is a cupcake showdown against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Like Alabama, Georgia is riding its momentum from last week to a 100 percent win probability this week.
  • Mississippi State (97.5 percent): By the look of Mississippi State’s impressive win probability, you’d think the Bulldogs were also playing an FCS team this weekend. Instead, they are actually taking on a fellow SEC foe in Vanderbilt. Mississippi State’s Senior Night festivities are sure to give the Bulldogs a boost, but a 97.5 percent win probability just goes to show how wide the gap is between these two conference foes.
  • Missouri (36.5 percent): The Tigers are officially in must-win mode the rest of the way if they’re to capture another SEC East crown, but the FPI doesn’t like their chances on the road against Tennessee this weekend. Missouri deserves more respect from the FPI, but a sub-40 percent win probability is likely due to Tennessee’s recent success with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback more than anything else.
  • Ole Miss (61.7 percent): The Rebels have had a few weeks to rest up and regroup following back to back losses to LSU and Auburn, and the FPI loves their chances against a frisky Arkansas team this week. Playing on the road will be a challenge, but if Ole Miss truly is the nation’s highest-ranked two-loss team its promising win probability is deserved.
  • South Carolina (93.3 percent): The Gamecocks are not playing an FCS school, but they are facing a rather weak FBS opponent in South Alabama of the Sun Belt conference this weekend. Thus, South Carolina’s win probability is not quite in the 99-100 percent range like the other schools taking on the FCS, but it is a very promising 93 percent nonetheless. The Gamecocks have had an up-and-down season in 2014, but they should take care of business on Saturday.
  • Tennessee (63.5 percent): Tennessee has surged to the cusp of bowl eligibility since Dobbs took over under center, and the FPI has noticed. The Vols have a 63 percent chance of winning Saturday against the current SEC East leader and defending East champ, and that’s due to more than just a home-field advantage in Neyland Stadium. Tennessee has a chance at another statement win Saturday, and the stakes couldn’t be much higher for either side.
  • Vanderbilt (2.5 percent): The Commodores are playing a potential playoff team in Mississippi State, but the FPI gave South Alabama three-times better odds of winning at South Carolina than it gave Vandy in a conference game this week. It seems the FPI has given up on the Commodores, and based on how their 2014 season has unfolded that’s probably justified.

Note: Kentucky, LSU and Texas A&M are on byes this weekend.