Don’t look now but my 3-7 record after Week 8 has turned into a 13-11-1 mark thanks to a 4-1 showing in Week 10. The college football odds for Week 11 aren’t as appetizing as last week, which featured both Tennessee/Georgia and Alabama/LSU, but there is still a packed slate and a number of lines that look soft.

Without further ado, my picks for the Week 11.

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Pick 1: Missouri (+21) vs. Tennessee

Missouri (4-5, 2-4 SEC) was absolutely housed in Week 1 by Kansas State (40-12). Since then, the Tigers haven’t lost by more than 1 score. That includes a 4-point home loss to Georgia, 7-point loss at Florida and a 4-point home loss to Kentucky last Saturday.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: This Missouri team is built to play tight, low-scoring games. In last week’s setback to Kentucky, the defense only surrendered 252 total yards. An anemic 232 yards from their own offense and a negative turnover margin were responsible for the loss.

Now the Tigers face Tennessee (8-1, 4-1 SEC) a week after the Vols were humbled by Georgia (27-13) in a game that was over by halftime.

Georgia sacked Hendon Hooker 6 times and totaled 8 tackles-for-loss. Tennessee’s offensive line was exposed by Georgia’s pass rush, even in the absence of Nolan Smith. The Missouri defense has been generating effective pressure all season — outside of Week 1 — and has piled up 10 sacks over the past 2 games.

I don’t expect Missouri to score more than a couple of touchdowns. But I do expect the defense to make life very uncomfortable for the Vols.

Pick: Missouri +21 (-110)

Pick 2: Georgia Tech pk (-110) vs. Miami

Recent results indicate that Miami (4-5, 2-3 ACC) is broken. The Canes may still be verging on .500, but they haven’t scored a touchdown in their past 2 games, and that includes 3 OT periods in their excruciating 14-12 win over Virginia.

In last week’s game against Florida State, Miami was routed 45-3, getting outgained 454-188 in the process. They played 3 QBs and they all struggled. Neither Tyler Van Dyke nor Jake Garcia is the answer to roughly 2 decades of subpar QB play at The U. Not this season, at least.

Backing the Yellow Jackets (4-5, 3-3 ACC) isn’t a comfortable proposition. They’ve put in their share of ugly performances this season. That said, they’ve won 3 of their past 5, including 26-21 at then-No. 24 Pitt and 23-20 against a Duke team that mauled Miami (45-21) in late October.

Georgia Tech has played better recently, has better wins on its résumé, and is playing at home. As of Tuesday night, this line was Georgia Tech -1.5 at FanDuel Tennessee, but had moved to a pick’em at DraftKings Tennessee.

Pick: Georgia Tech pk (-110)

Pick 3: Auburn -2 (-110) vs. Texas A&M

Welcome to this week’s “Someone Has To Win” Bowl. Auburn (3-6, 1-5 SEC) has dropped five straight after opening the season 3-1. Texas A&M (3-6, 1-5 SEC) has … done the exact same thing.

That’s 10 straight losses between them, for those keeping score at home.

The Aggies were outscored 21-0 in the second half of their Week 10 loss to Florida (41-24), marking the 2nd straight game they let a halftime lead get away. The defense, which had looked so promising in early-season wins over Miami and Arkansas, was shredded drive after drive by Florida’s ground game. The Gators finished with 291 yards at 5.8 yards per carry.

While the 2022 Auburn Tigers don’t do much well on offense, Tank Bigsby is still a “bona fide stud” and this is a prime opportunity for Auburn’s horse to stretch his legs. In Carnell Williams’ first game as interim head coach last week, the Tigers played much better than they had the previous three. Auburn took Mississippi State to OT on the road (39-33), showing considerable heart in coming back from a 20-6 halftime deficit. If not for 15 penalties, the Tigers might have started Williams’ tenure with a W.

When you add in the fact that the FEI ratings say Auburn is significantly better, I’m forced to fade the Aggies yet again.

Pick: Auburn -2 (-110)

Pick 4: TCU +7 (-110) vs. Texas

Do I think TCU is a serious national championship contender? No. Do I think the undefeated Horned Frogs should be getting a full touchdown in Austin? No again.

Texas has shown a great deal of variance this year: a 49-0 win over Oklahoma sits at one end of the spectrum while a 37-34 loss at Texas Tech occupies the other. The Longhorns gained a great deal of national respect for their 1-point loss to Alabama in Week 2, but the sheen has come off that near-miss during the past month.

TCU’s 9-0 record is not smoke and mirrors. The Frogs have outgained 8 of their 9 opponents, most by considerable margins. Max Duggan is going to be the most-reliable pivot on the field; running back Kendre Miller is already over 1,000 yards, and WR Quentin Johnston is a legit first-round pick.

With their No. 4 Playoff ranking hanging in the balance, TCU keeps this game close.

Pick: TCU +7 (-110)