Week 6 SEC Primer: Backs against the wall, LSU-Auburn is a different kind of must-win
Everything you need to know about this weekend’s SEC slate.
Game of the Week: LSU (-3) at Auburn
The stakes
Technically, both sets of Tigers are still clinging by their fingernails to the last flimsy shred of a hope of winning the SEC West with 2 losses. Realistically, the rewards awaiting the side that prevails on Saturday are a) slightly better odds of landing in a New Year’s 6 bowl and b) pride.
That’s rare these days: Since the turn of the century, Auburn-LSU has almost always loomed large in the SEC standings, and occasionally in the national title race, due in part to the fact that it almost always falls in the front half of the schedule. This year will mark the first time both teams come into the game unranked since 1999, and the first time both have multiple losses since 2001, when the game was pushed to the end of the schedule by 9/11 and still wound up deciding the division. Since then, one side or the other (or both) has been ranked in the top 10 at kickoff in every meeting except 2015 (aka The Leonard Fournette Game) and ’16.
So a game pitting two teams nursing a combined 5-4 record, with 3 of those 4 losses coming at the hands of unranked opponents, isn’t exactly the high-water mark for the series. The winners can indulge in at least one more week of imagining a scenario in which they run the table over the second half of the season, knock off Alabama, and get lucky enough to take the West via tiebreaker if Bama suffers a second loss; the loser can officially write off this surreal COVID season as a wash. From where they’re standing right now, that qualifies as must-win.
The stat: 9.7 yards per attempt
That’s the average gain on pass attempts against LSU’s secondary this season, which ranks dead last in the SEC and 73rd nationally out of 75 teams that have played more than 1 game. For some comparison, from 2010-19 LSU never allowed more than 6.7 yards per attempt vs. FBS opponents or finished outside of the top 40 nationally in ypa allowed.
It’s early still, but if anything, the numbers don’t quite reflect just how flammable the Tigers have been on the back end — the total is skewed downward by their Oct. 3 win over Vanderbilt, whose overmatched true freshman quarterback, Ken Seals, managed just 113 yards on 4.5 per attempt in a 41-7 loss. In its other 3 games, LSU has been routinely torched, allowing 623 yards on 10.4 ypa vs. Mississippi State’s KJ Costello; 406 yards on 11.6 ypa vs. Missouri’s Connor Bazelak; and 234 on 10.6 ypa vs. South Carolina’s Collin Hill. In each of those cases, that comes out to at least 4.0 yards more per attempt than the Bulldogs, Tigers or Gamecocks have averaged against their other opponents.
Downfield passing isn’t an area in which Auburn QB Bo Nix has excelled, to put it mildly, and to the extent that he has, it’s been almost exclusively by heaving the ball in the general vicinity of the Tigers’ resident jump-ball specialist, Seth Williams, and hoping for the best. Of Nix’s 15 completions that have gained 20+ yards, Williams and his absurd catch radius have accounted for 10 of them, the most of any SEC wideout.
OH MY, SETH WILLIAMS 🤯 pic.twitter.com/38PXcAs078
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 17, 2020
The good-on-good matchup between Williams and LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr. in last year’s game was one of the best of the regular season, a test of potential first-round talents who each wound up various points on the other’s highlight reel. Stingley won the day, allowing just 2 receptions on 10 targets and coming down with a reputation-cementing INT at Williams’ expense, but also found himself on the wrong end of an absurd sideline grab by Williams late in the game. This year, Stingley has been relatively anonymous since returning from the unspecified illness that forced him to miss the opener, which is not necessarily a bad sign for a cornerback; at any rate, he and/or his 5-star counterpart, true freshman Elias Ricks, should get plenty of screen time opposite Williams and plenty of opportunities to replicate South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn’s breakout game against Auburn (and Williams specifically) a couple of weeks back.
Beyond Williams, Auburn’s resident blazers, Anthony Schwartz and Eli Stove, have combined to average just 8.7 yards per catch — less than half of Williams’ average — mostly on screens that haven’t come close to maximizing their speed-in-space potential. At the rate that LSU has allowed huge gains after the catch, Saturday looks like an opportune time to narrow that gap.
The big question: Is TJ Finley for real?
All signs out of Baton Rouge indicate Finley, who led last week’s 52-24 win over South Carolina in his first career start, will be behind center again Saturday as Myles Brennan remains doubtful to return from an abdominal injury. Although Ed Orgeron said outright earlier this week that Brennan’s spot will be waiting for him whenever he’s cleared to play, Finley’s 17-of-21, 265-yard, 2-TD debut against the Gamecocks won over a significant share of the fan base and put him in position to make an honest run at it.
At 6-6, 242 pounds, Finley brings fairly obvious athletic upside to the table amid a still-emerging but potentially explosive group of wideouts; Terrace Marshall Jr. is a star, true freshmen Arik Gilbert and Kayshon Boutte are on track to justify their 5-star billing, and rotational vets Jaray Jenkins, Jontre Kirklin, and Racey McMath are collectively averaging 16.8 yards per catch. The biggest revelation vs. Carolina, though, was the running game: After a couple of anemic efforts in losses to Mississippi State and Mizzou, sophomore RBs John Emery Jr. and Tyrion Davis-Price announced their arrival with a combined 223 yards and 2 TDs on 5.6 per carry, spearheading LSU’s best team rushing performance by yardage in more than 2 years. That served the dual purpose of keeping Finley in his comfort zone — he attempted just 1 pass on 3rd-and-7 or longer — and milking the clock, where LSU racked up a good old-fashioned 15-minute edge in time of possession.
A road trip to Auburn, of course, poses a different challenge, albeit not to the degree that Auburn fans have come to expect. The front seven, usually a positive, is licking its wounds after a 283-yard, 3-TD rushing performance by Ole Miss that dropped the Tigers to 12th in the SEC in rushing defense for the year, ahead of only the Rebels themselves and Vanderbilt. The interior d-line doesn’t have another Derrick Brown waiting in the wings, and the ongoing absence of senior LB K.J. Britt in the middle of the defense due to a thumb injury is palpable, even as he continues to bring his All-SEC energy to the sideline. Reversing that trend and putting as much of the game as possible on Finley’s right arm is a priority. If he’s good enough to win putting it in the air 35 or 40 times without the benefit of a reliable ground game, at least he should have to prove it.
The verdict
How much do you trust a true freshman QB on the road for the first time? More or less than you trust LSU’s secondary to not burst into flame at random intervals? The defending champs may still have the higher ceiling in terms of raw talent, but Auburn has fewer question marks where it matters most and one of the league’s true up-and-coming headliners in freshman RB Tank Bigsby. For this one, it will also have the home-cooking version of Bo Nix, who has been vastly better in Jordan-Hare Stadium in his young career than he’s been on the road. If he’s outgunned by Finley under the circumstances it’s not going to go over well.
– – –
Auburn 33, LSU 30
Mississippi State at Alabama (-31)
What is going on at Mississippi State? Since the Bulldogs’ triumphant debut at LSU, the product on the field has been in freefall and the news off the field has been worse.
On Wednesday Mike Leach confirmed the long-rumored departure of the team’s best player, All-SEC RB Kylin Hill, who was apparently suspended for the Bulldogs’ last game, a 28-14 loss to Texas A&M, due to an “outburst” following their Oct. 10 debacle at Kentucky; Leach, in typical Leach-ian fashion, claimed he hadn’t even spoken to Hill, saying only “what I’ve heard is he’s opting out and preparing for the NFL.” He also confirmed the impending transfer of 3 other players (“they’re into another chapter in their life, and so are we”), most notably WR Tyrell Shavers, a grad transfer from Alabama who’d emerged as regular in the rotation. Their exits followed a steady trickle of attrition over the past few weeks, led by sophomore QBs Garrett Shrader and Jalen Mayden, both former 4-star recruits; their exits followed an initial wave of departures over the summer, including another former 4-star quarterback, Keytaon Thompson, and a pair of potential starters on defense (DL Fabien Lovett and DB Jarrian Jones) who bailed out after Leach tweeted a COVID-19 quarantine meme that for some reason involved a noose.
Some attrition under a first-year head coach is a normal part of the transition to a new administration — guys like Shrader, Mayden and Thompson are classic examples of players recruited by a different staff to run a different offense, whose specific talents are plainly bad fits for the new system. Leach, though, has made a point of leaning into it as publicly and abrasively as possible, openly fulminating about the need for a “purge” after the Kentucky loss to rid the locker room of “fence-riders” and “malcontents.” The roster is reportedly down to 75 scholarship players, including injury casualties and former walk-ons.
As Leach himself has pointed out, he’s been through this process before, having survived a rocky start to his tenure at Washington State in which he described veteran holdovers from the previous coaching staff there as having an “empty-corpse quality” en route to a 3-9 record in his first season. (Later that year Leach was also accused by a star wide receiver of “physical, emotional, and verbal abuse,” echoing the allegations that led to his notorious ouster from Texas Tech in 2009; an internal review by the university dismissed those claims.) Eventually, he was vindicated by the win column: After posting a 12-25 record in Leach’s first 3 seasons, the Cougars went 43-22 over the next 6 and — just like his teams in the back half of his tenure at Texas Tech — became regulars in the Top 25. To the extent that his peevish response when things are going badly is just part of Leach’s, let’s say … unconventional personality, Mississippi State knew what it was bargaining for when it hired him.
But the situation in Starkville is at a point where, in the short term, at least, it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. The good vibes from the opening-day upset in Baton Rouge evaporated almost instantly. The Bulldogs are at a crossroads at quarterback with arguably the 3 toughest games on the schedule (vs. Alabama, Auburn and Georgia) looming in the next 4 weeks. Beyond that, the last opportunity to salvage a sense of forward momentum comes down to the Egg Bowl. Attrition will likely continue; some segment of the roster that hasn’t actually left is at risk of checking out mentally. In that context, a trip to Alabama is just another reminder that it’s a long road ahead.
– – –
Alabama 45, Mississippi State 19
Georgia (-15) at Kentucky
Last year’s game in Athens was a soaking wet, borderline unwatchable affair that saw the starting quarterbacks finish 11-for-27 passing for 52 yards and a frustrated home crowd resort to booing Georgia’s offense in the slog. (The Bulldogs won, 21-0.) Short of a basketball game breaking out, the socially distanced crowd in Lexington isn’t likely to get that worked up.
Still, there’s a chance this game will feel similar as both teams face potentially season-defining decisions behind center: Kentucky’s starter, senior Terry Wilson, is nursing a minor injury that could hasten the transition to Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood that many fans have been waiting for since Gatewood joined the team last winter; meanwhile, Georgia is weighing the long-term prospects of sticking with the reliable Stetson Bennett IV or gambling on the bigger, more volatile talent, JT Daniels, who (if healthy, a big if at the moment) arguably gives the Bulldogs a better chance to win and advance in the postseason. It’s hard to imagine the distinction will make any difference in the outcome vs. Kentucky, but realistically the window for making it is closing quickly.
– – –
Georgia 31, Kentucky 13
Arkansas at Texas A&M (-12.5)
Due to coronavirus concerns, the Razorbacks and Aggies will meet on campus for the first time since 2013; in the meantime, 5 of the 6 games played in AT&T Stadium in Arlington have been decided by single digits, including each of the last 3 years during Arkansas’ reign as the league’s perennial doormat. This time, the Razorbacks may be the most improved team in America under first-year coach Sam Pittman and grad-transfer QB Feleipe Franks, but ironically they won’t close the gap against an A&M outfit that’s also moving tentatively in the right direction.
– – –
Texas A&M 27, Arkansas 17
Missouri at Florida (-13)
Florida is emerging from 2 weeks in COVID-19 limbo, so a brief refresher: The Gators are dynamic on offense, mediocre at best on defense, and have no remaining margin for error in pursuit of a Playoff bid after their last-second loss at Texas A&M. The Kyles, Trask and Pitts, may have faded a bit from the national consciousness due to inactivity, but a return to form against a Missouri secondary that’s already been properly shredded by Alabama and LSU over the first half of the season should restore their status as Heisman candidates in good standing.
– – –
Florida 34, Missouri 24
Ole Miss (-16.5) at Vanderbilt
Both rosters have been hit by coronavirus issues, in Vandy’s case so severely that earlier this month the Commodores became the first team with too few scholarship players available to meet the SEC-mandated 53-man minimum. They do meet the threshold for Saturday, if only just barely. If Ole Miss’ offense picks up where LSU’s and South Carolina’s left off before the Dores went on hiatus, they might wind up wishing they were back in quarantine.
– – –
Ole Miss 38, Vanderbilt 16
Scoreboard
Week 5 record 3-1 straight-up / 2-2 vs. spread
Season record: 20-10 straight-up / 15-15 vs. spread
I’m glad the Dawgs got a bye week. We needed time to lick our wounds.
Now we gotta run the table. Gotta get that offense to take the next step.
I’ve been looking forward to seeing what Gatewood can do. Unfortunately, it’s against one of the best Ds in the country.
He needs to feel more free. He looks stressed and all over the place. He’s gotta keep his poise, get locked in, and be himself.
“each of the last 3 years during Arkansas’ reign as the league’s perennial doormat”
It was 3 years, and perennial? And you get paid to write this stuff? Or is this voluntary?
Well, honestly, I am betting they dont get paid much. I’m guessing this isnt their main source of income. BUT…its just another opinion and our opinions are always a target. Take the third paragraph..he mentioned something about 3 of the 4 losses to unranked schools..didnt mention that 3 of the 5 wins were “officiating aided”….like a track meet that is wind aided…the records have an asterisk or should have.
I agree. Everyone knows Vandy is the perennial doormat.
Tennessee does not know that.
LOL
I was gonna say, Vandy owning Tennessee 3 of the last 4? Who’s the doormat here?
Had to check, because I’d forgotten that. Vandy actually beat Tennessee three years straight. Must have been very depressing for Tennessee fans.
Respectfully disagree with your analysis of the Auburn-LSU game. It should read that Auburn needs to figure out how to win without the officials’ help. (Strike up the Hotty Toddy and Hog Call here!)
Auburn is 2-3 or 1-4
Arkansas is 3-1
Auburn is 0-5
You’re probably referring to the UK game but that was a 2 score game so the no call TD at the goal line was a non factor.
No need to reply to Diesel. He’s a troll who relentlessly comments anti-Auburn stuff because his team isn’t doing anything noteworthy.
2-3 at worse. Auburn had 6 taken off the scoreboard as well as OM in that game due to officiating.
And don’t forget your KY brethren. Everyone except those dressed up as referees for an early trick-or-treat saw the KY offense punch that one in. That football wasn’t inches over the goal line, it was FEET over the goal line!
Well if Kentucky could score more points than Tank Bigsby can break tackles, maybe they wouldn’t be so bad
Every time you guys cry about it, Auburn wins again. Suck it losers.
Winning is over Wiggle9.9. The school with the real tiger mascot takes this one. The Eagle/ tigers fall by 10
Not trying to troll but Auburn would technically be the real Tigers in the SEC. They were the first to adopt that mascot. LSU and Missouri just wanted to try to blend in.
Not saying which was first. Just saying who has a real tiger mascot. Not split personality identity problem. Hence, plainsman, war eagles, tigers
You like winning when your players weren’t good enough to get it done? Because Auburn’s players straight up suck, they should be 0-5 or 1-4 if not for referee help
Many of them are bad enough they might have to leave and go play for Mr. Potatohead in Knoxvile.
Does it bother you that Tank Bigsby’s broken tackle stats over 2 games is almost higher than points scored by Tennessee in that same time. Just wondering…
A Tennessee fan is saying another team’s players suck? That’s the funniest thing I’ve read in awhile.
Short and succinct. Poetry. This is what makes CFB rivalries great.
But seriously Auburn should be 1-4, lol
2-3 at worse. Auburn had 6 taken away as well in the OM game due to bad officiating.
Actually, every time someone cry’s about Auburn, Tank breaks another tackle!
Well to be fair, we had help from Arkansas as well. Without their defense failing to show up on the final drive, we wouldn’t have been in FG range to begin with.
You could make an argument about the Arky game call, but you cannot say for certain how the Ole Miss game would’ve turned out. For starters, there’s only one person on this planet that can say for certain if his hand touched the ball after kickoff. Not to mention, Tanks punt return called back for a bogus holding call nowhere near the play. AND, there was actually a blantent hold the refs missed on an Auburn linebacker during one of the Rebels scores. So please SHUT UP about bad calls.
As someone with a 70” 4K TV that watched the replay repeatedly, and a fellow Auburn fan, I can say it absolutely touched his finger. Absolutely no question about it! His pinky clearly reacted to the ball as it passed. Highly doubt he has that kind of reaction dexterity with a single digit man.
I’m not trying to troll but this is exactly the kind of comment people are talking about that is making us look bad. We have to take accountability for things like this just like we expect the losing teams to take accountability for putting themselves in a losing situation. The latter will never happen until we do the former!
Well said. Something made the movement of the ball change ever so slightly and his hand was all that was there. Good luck this weekend. Both our teams can sure make you shake your head this year
Very true, but Auburn fans this year just don’t know what to make of it. Last year we were screaming for more pass. This year they delivered on that but now the pass is so bad we’re screaming to run the ball with the rushing game we got. Our heads are spinning while shaking lol
I’m typically not a gambling man but give me Arky. To cover. To win outright. To embarrass the Aggies. Whatever. I watched this Arky D enough to say I’m on board with the COVID Hogs. And, please, Lord, please send Mond away after this year. I am SO tired of hearing how freaking great he is. Until he heaves yet another INT or incomplete downfield.
See Alabama fans and Tennessee fans can agree on something. THis is my strongest opinion about the SEC. That A&M is overrated and Arkansas is one of the best teams in the conference this year outside of UGA and Alabama, yes, I even think they can beat Florida
Mond is the SEC Sam Ehlinger, all the hype in the world preseason and everyone is waiting for the “step forward” that gets predicted each year.
The Arkansas defense is much better than the Gator D, I don’t really understand the spread or the hype with TAMU. Gotta disagree with Diesel that they’re the number 3 team in the SEC, I actually think UF and LSU would round out my top 4. But Pittman and Odom have given them a huge boost in year 1.
Mond had a decent O-Line and a veteran RB 2018 and he did OK. He had a bad O-Line and a rookie RB last year and he struggled. He has a good O-Line and a good experienced RB this season. He should have a good and possibly great year. Losing Ausbon to “opt out” and Chapman to injury has slowed his progress somewhat. He needs another receiver to step up.
I think Arky right now is the feel good story in The SEC this year. We’re all seemingly WANTING to see them do go so long as they lose to our own team.
Bleh… no edit feature still. do GOOD so long as…
Yet they may not win another game this season. Look at that schedule.
I seem to recall an Auburn vs LSU game a few years back in which the losing coach was going to get fired no matter who lost. Ended up being Les Miles, but the scenario this year of being a must-win and neither team being what we are used to seeing isn’t new. Both of these teams’ success is very cyclical year over year.
The way to beat defense, is to throw something at them that they don’t see coming. Speed read options, quarterback draws, half back dives, counters, pitches, screen passes, curls, slants, anything to keep the defense guessing. How do you beat Georgia’s defense, chip away at it. Kentucky, run da bawl. Get reps to Smoke, Rose, Rodriguez, Gatewood, and you may make the game closer and shorter. Georgia was pitiful against Kentucky last year. All Kentucky needed was some playmakers to win that game. Don’t make the same mistake again UK.
Last year’s game was played in near tropical storm conditions: driving raining and win gusts near 30 mph. It’s not that either team was pitiful, but that the weather conditions made offense difficult. And Georgia still won by 3 TDs. Playmakers alone would not have won that game for UK.
Chad Morris, run the freakin ball. We got Tank, a 300 lb fullback, Worm, and maybe DJ if he’s healthy. Run the ball, don’t test Derek Stingley.
Chad: Signal in Waffles and Saugages…. Oh crap I grabbed the wrong menu this week…
LSU and Auburn playing in the Who Sucks the Least Bowl.
Can’t argue
This is probably the first troll post I can’t take offense to lol. Fits the game like a glove.
Nick Saban is ruining college football.
I think AU and LSU can agree on who sucks the most
BJ Oujilari needs some credit. He has gotten a few reps the first couple games then started against USC. The true freshman leads the SEC in sacks. With him on the other side of Ali Gaye, theyre impressive.
That LSU pass rush could be the difference in the game.
All our defense proved last week was that we can run people down when we bust coverage. Pellini and his 4-3 is usually a 4-2 nickel. Makes us really soft at LB having to cover and stop the run. If they don’t fix it it could be a good day to be a Tank
Some great games this weekend (UGA v UK, UF v UM, TAMU v Ark, LSU v Aub), I can’t wait!
Agreed, I think conference wide the way teams are shaping up (or not shaping up) this is looking like the best week thus far.
Agree with you both. GEAUX!!
I don’t have a clue why A&M is favored by double digits. Arkansas is the most improved team in the country and the game is always close. A&M gets one win over UF and all of a sudden they’re worthy of being favored by double digits? Against an Arkansas team that should be 3-1? Nah. Arkansas 28-23
Somebody get this man a winning Tennessee season! Seems he’s on the verge and we need to talk him off the ledge…
I could not agree more. They beat a terrible Florida D and, all of a sudden, they’re getting playoff talk? They’re not getting out of Jordan-Hare with a win, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Arkansas beat them.
Kinda agree on the Tamu overreach but I’m not jumping on the Hogs bandwagon just yet. Serious shortage of athletes
Man I long for the day when I can come to this football website that I read for information about football games and not have to hear about how Kentucky fans only care about basketball.
shush now child, you’re gonna grow up and be what makes the “not neutral like they should be” sports writers say you are regardless of your win-loss record against SEC opponents.
Big QB change for the Cats and all you got is a stale basketball joke. You can always go back to writing for an unpaid internship with Bill Simmons’ new what-have-you.
I guess Kylin Hill had some sort of inflated self importance since he led the Woke Mob to change the flag.
Let it go Army.
Only games I would touch are:
Georgia v Kentucky/ under
A&M -12.5 over hogs is pretty safe.
Hogs are a great story but way overvalued this week similar to UK last week against Mizzou.
I picked UGA—27, UK—21 but my pick is based more on UGA than UK. I’m not confident about this pick, I just feel comfortable with it.
That being said, I’m feeling less and less comfortable with it when I see real Vegas lines for over/unders on Tank Bigsby broken tackles vs Points scored by Kentucky.
I don’t want to pick on Matt Hinton here, he’s just repeating/writing like a big number of modern sports writers, but I do want them all to get better fast.
Question to football sports-writers: Are you a professional journalist or a tabloid writer?, make up your minds. Because professional people don’t make claims that are impossible to back up.
Math can’t be beyond your mental capabilities if you are a professional. All the 2020 games will turn out to be a win or a loss for every one of the SEC football programs. Once you understand that, you can’t use records to rank teams not in the same conference.
Vanderbilt is 4-4-1 in bowl games, so are they really the 110th ranked NCAA Division I, FBS program right now because they have a conference loss ie.
So the SEC, is going to have the highest paid best coaching staffs in college football, the SEC is going to have the top recruits in college football, and it’s going to be sending more players to the NFL, and keep them there….. but according to the media and it’s ranking the SEC will still have teams as bad as 110th (really?, because that manure doesn’t work out). Just like once snake oil 247 or Rivals calls a recruit a 4-5 * player they never get demoted, even if they decide to play in the college symphony instead of going to football practice.
Repeat after me: “I am a professional journalist”, “I will not draw conclusions that have no facts behind them”. “I will identify all my speculation as speculation carefully”. “I will remember that my writing has real effects on peoples employment, grants-in-aid, and other real quality of life events”. “I will not use data from sources that have no science or bad science behind their claims”.
Get the general idea sports-writers? Get a lot better fast. Let bad writing come from untrained, not as well read, and unprofessional folks … like us. When we claim to know who is number 1-10 or 100-120, it’s entertaining. When you do it, it stinks.
You’re barking at the moon here man. You’re on SDS. There are no professional journalists here. Only hobbyist homer fanboys that want to masquerade as professionals while they wait for puberty to hit balls-deep in a bottle of Texas Pete at their double wide home gate party.
Lol. I definitely don’t come to this site for the “journalism”.