Fearless Prediction: Texas A&M vs. UNC in Orange Bowl

Regardless of how the rest of the country feels, Texas A&M should be upset.

The Aggies had their sights set on the College Football Playoff but fell just short. They did everything they could to give themselves the best opportunity and still finished No. 5.

A&M (8-1) won’t get a chance at the championship, but it can still show the country why it deserved to be in the race. The Aggies face North Carolina in the Orange Bowl at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday. A dominant win — even against a Tar Heels team decimated by opt-outs — would at least help players and fans feel justified in their frustration.

On paper it looks like there is a good chance of that happening.

The Aggies were already the superior team with a better record, stronger schedule and more talented players. That is even more the case now due to several opt-outs from the Tar Heels.

North Carolina (8-3) will be without its two leading rushers in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. That is a huge blow as Carter (1,245) ranked 4th in the country in rushing yards and Williams (1,140 with 19 TDs) was 6th. It puts the onus on quarterback Sam Howell to generate offense, but he will be without top target Dyami Brown.

They are also missing their leading tackler in linebacker Chaz Surratt.

Contrast that with the Aggies, who so far have no new opt-outs for the bowl game, and it’s not difficult to see why most people are predicting a big victory for A&M.

The Aggies enter the game with one of the most fearsome defenses in the country. They allow the 11th fewest yards in the nation per game and their defensive line’s sack rate of 8.1 percent ranks 27th. This depleted UNC offense may struggle mightily to score.

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If there is a player who can replace Brown’s production, it is Dazz Newsome. His 48 receptions were just 7 shy of Brown’s mark, though he earned significantly less yards (616). Still, his heavy involvement in the offense will likely increase even more in this game.

One thing about Howell: He’s still going to throw it. How good is Howell? UNC’s sophomore QB actually has thrown more TD passes each of the past 2 seasons than Trevor Lawrence. Howell has thrown 27 TD passes this year against just 6 interceptions.

All of the Aggies have something to prove in this game, but perhaps none more so than Kellen Mond.

The senior quarterback has been doubted throughout his time at A&M. His reaction to the Aggies missing out on the Playoff was to tweet that it was a joke, so one would assume he isn’t going to take this game lightly.

Mond, who has thrown 19 TD passes against just 3 interceptions, hasn’t had a true explosive game this season, but that is mostly due to the balance of the offense. If there were a game he goes off though, this would be it. He is the Aggies’ career leader in total offense, passing yards and passing touchdowns.

UNC will also have to worry about running backs Isaiah Spiller and Ainias Smith.

Coined Thunder and Lightning because of Spiller’s power and Smith’s speed, the two have been a major problem for defenses.

Spiller needs just 7 more yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark as a sophomore. He is the heart of the offense as A&M prefers to grind out games with the run. Smith is a nice change of pace but is really used more in the passing game and as a return man. He has 439 yards receiving and 293 rushing.

The Aggies look to simply be too overwhelming for this UNC team to handle. It’s a pity we couldn’t see this game happen with the Tar Heels at full strength, as that would give A&M even more of a chance to make a statement.

They’ll still likely come motivated to show that they belonged. Mond will get the chance to write one final chapter to his Aggie legacy. Jimbo Fisher will try to prove to the nation that he’s building something special in College Station.

I expect A&M to play angry and I expect that not to bode well for UNC. Look for the Aggies to roll in the Orange Bowl.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Texas A&M 42, North Carolina 20.

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