Well, the Fearless Prediction won’t pull any punches. Last week hurt. We did not expect to struggle that mightily in the Gainesville heat.

But with a new day comes new focus, new optimism, and an updated approach for the interwebs number 1 Tennessee football prognostication service operated by someone that grew up in Albany, NY.

Time to start a new era.

This Saturday afternoon Tennessee hosts UTSA, which stands for The University of Texas at San Antonio. We remember the Alamo, and we remember that this Roadrunners team won 11 games just a year ago. However, they are off to a slower start in 2023, losing 2 of their first 3 games.

Let’s take a closer look at the visitors. Who will be the QB for UTSA? Like the Vols, the Roadrunners feature a 6th-year signal caller in Frank Harris. He was hurt in their Week 2 win over Texas State and didn’t play in last week’s loss to Army, snapping a personal streak of 36 straight starts. If he can’t go due to the turf toe issue, Eddie Lee Marburger will get the call again. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor said earlier this week that Harris is “day to day.”

Fifth-year senior Joshua Cephus is the Roadrunners’ top target in the passing game. He already has 24 catches in only 3 games this year. Another senior receiver will be familiar to football fans in East Tennessee. Tykee Ogle-Kellogg was a Mr. Football Award winner in 2016 out of powerhouse Alcoa HS, which sits less than 20 minutes from the UT campus. He has 10 catches for 140 yards this season, 2nd on the team.

Kevorian Barnes leads the Roadrunners on the ground, averaging 81.7 yards per game.

On defense, UTSA has 9 guys with 10 tackles or more. ILB Martavius French, who was on the Vols roster in 2020 but never played for Tennessee, leads the way with 17. Redshirt sophomore Trey Moore already has 4 sacks.

As for Tennessee, the 2023 offense hasn’t looked a whole lot like the record setting 2022 group. Joe Milton hasn’t played as well as Hendon Hooker. The offensive line is making too many mental errors. Receivers are dropping too many passes. The running game is still putting up good numbers at 205 yards per game (ranked 25th in the FBS), but it’s clear that something is amiss on that side of the football.

The hope amongst Vols fans in watching the offense struggle against Austin Peay was that Josh Heupel was keeping things vanilla the week before the Florida game. Instead, that performance was a sign of things to come.

Hooker’s ability to make plays with his feet saved Tennessee on numerous occasions in 2022. While Milton is mobile, he hasn’t scrambled as much as Hooker did when plays broke down.

Defensively, as expected LB Aaron Beasley has a team-high 20 tackles, including 7 for loss with 2 sacks. Tyler Baron and James Pearce Jr. each have 3 sacks. Eight Vols have collected at least 10 tackles.

But against the Gators, Tennessee’s defense made crucial errors. They were credited with missing 11 tackles, many of those leading directly to Gators scores. Those failures of fundamentals cost the Vols dearly.

Tennessee’s most startling statistic so far this year? The Vols are ranked higher in the FBS in total defense (37th) than they are in total offense (40th).

The next 2 games are huge for Tennessee. If they can beat UTSA and then South Carolina, they’ll hit the bye week at 4-1, feeling much better nearing the midway point of the season. The tougher test for the Vols will come against a Gamecocks team that ended their title hopes a season ago. But if they are looking past the Roadrunners, this weekend could be a problem.

But I don’t think that will be the case. Tennessee will shake off that rough night in Gainesville, beat UTSA, and then it’s on to full South Carolina preparation.

Tennessee 31, UTSA 13