There are 3 matchups of top-15 teams this weekend.

That’s a glorious thing. While there’s a ton of attention on the 2 top-10 showdowns with Playoff contenders (Ole Miss-Georgia and Michigan-Penn State), I must shine a light on the other top-15 matchup.

Mizzou and Tennessee are battling for more than just a 2nd-place finish in the SEC East. We could be talking about a New Year’s 6 bowl for the winner. Mizzou has never played in a BCS/New Year’s 6 bowl — the Cotton Bowl wasn’t part of that during the Tigers’ historic 2007 and 2013 seasons — while Tennessee is attempting to accomplish that feat in consecutive seasons for the first time in the 21st century.

A win doesn’t guarantee a New Year’s 6 bowl, but a 3rd loss feels like a potential nail in that coffin.

So who wins on Saturday and why? Let’s break that down with some final thoughts and a prediction:

1. Will Mizzou experience a Georgia hangover?

We’ll play the results on that because we always do, but I bet it’s something Eli Drinkwitz is wondering about with his team. Playing a 60-minute game against Georgia can take its toll. Florida just got stunned at home against Arkansas following its blowout loss to Georgia, and Mizzou saw that Kentucky team run out of gas a week later in Lexington.

Of course, when Mizzou watched its 4th quarter slip away in a 10-point loss to LSU, it followed that up with an impressive road showing at Kentucky. Granted, it took a fake punt pass for the ages to overcome an early 14-0 deficit. With the way the Vols can run the ball, falling behind again might be a steeper climb than Kentucky was.

The good news for Mizzou — Brady Cook is No. 5 in the country in 1st quarter quarterback rating. As we saw early against Georgia, Cook has mostly been dominant early in games. Getting out to an early lead would allow a balanced Mizzou offense to operate the way that OC Kirby Moore would prefer.

That’ll be easier said than done given the recent history of Heupel against his former team.

2. A stunning number: Josh Heupel averaged 64 points vs. Mizzou in 2 meetings

In Heupel’s 5 seasons as a head coach since he left his Mizzou OC job, he’s had nothing but top-8 scoring offenses. It’s not a shock that some of that success came at the expense of his former team. It is, however, alarming that he followed up a 62-point performance in 2021 with a 66-point performance in 2022.

While there’s been some ethical debate about Heupel running up the score, this doesn’t feel like it should be one of those opportunities for Tennessee. This Vols offense isn’t as prolific as the first 2 of the Heupel era. It’s only averaging a ho-hum 26 points per game against SEC competition. In SEC road games, the Vols average just 23 points per contest.

Nothing suggests that this game will feel like the previous 2 when Mizzou was a middling, ineffective defense that had no match for the Vols.

Mizzou’s run defense hasn’t been lights out, but it still ranks No. 26 in the country and it’s 1 of 9 Power 5 teams that hasn’t allowed a run of 40 yards this season. Chunk plays in the ground game have been the backbone of the 2023 version of Heupel’s offense, which is tied for No. 1 in FBS with 7 runs of 40 yards. Jaylen Wright, Dylan Sampson and Jabari Small have been a highly effective 3-headed rushing attack.

This year, that’s a strength-on-strength matchup. The previous 2 years? Not so much. The Tennessee ground game racked up an average of 363 rushing yards and 5 scores in those 2 matchups.

Something tells me that shocking number takes a dip by game’s end.

3. Did Joe Milton turn the corner?

I’ve been critical of Milton because I didn’t think someone who was trying to hold down a starting job for the 3rd time was worthy of getting preseason All-SEC love. Has he had the right attitude throughout this process? Absolutely. But now is when Tennessee needs the best version of the 6th year senior.

You could argue that for the majority of the last 3 Tennessee games, we’ve seen the best version of Milton. In those contests, Milton completed 75% of his passes for 10 yards per attempt with 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. We’ve also seen him be more decisive with his legs.

What overshadowed that 3-game stretch was getting shut out in the second half against Alabama. And sure, 1 of those 3 games was against a 1-win UConn squad. Contrary to what Jim Mora Jr. said, no, I don’t think that was Tennessee’s Super Bowl. Milton didn’t even play in the second half, so take that performance for what it is.

The guy who played well against Kentucky and in the first half against Alabama needs to show up on the road. If Tennessee is going to beat a solid Mizzou team in Columbia, this can’t be a game in which Milton’s development is questioned. The Vols still only have 11 passes of 20 yards in 5 SEC games this season. Auburn’s lowly passing game is the only SEC team with fewer than that. If Milton can continue to develop that downfield connection with Squirrel White and Ramel Keyton — and do so against those aggressive Mizzou corners — it would be as welcome a sight as any for the Vols.

4. Luther Burden III’s status could make or break this one for Mizzou

The star receiver has a “questionable” tag after getting banged up against Georgia. Eli Drinkwitz said that he’ll get a better feel for his star receiver’s status on Friday.

If Burden plays, the focus will be getting him back to the level he was at before the Kentucky game. In the first 6 games, Burden had at least 7 catches in every contest. He averaged 9 catches for 132 yards and he hit 96 receiving yards in each of those 6 games. Since then, Burden’s line has been much quieter:

  • at Kentucky: 2 catches for 15 yards
  • vs South Carolina: 5 catches for 97 yards, TD
  • at Georgia: 3 catches, 53 yards, TD

It’s worth noting that while Burden was banged up in the Kentucky game, he still played a minimum of 47 snaps in those past 3 games. That includes the Georgia game, wherein he refused to go into the injury tent after appearing to tweak his ankle.

So if Burden plays, it’s not like he’ll be out there for just 20 snaps. If he’s active, it’s because Kirby Moore would like to make sure the defense has to account for the explosive star receiver and perhaps open up matchups on the outside for the emerging Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper. Burden’s presence in the slot also forces quicker, shiftier defensive backs closer to the box and gives Mizzou an advantage in the run game.

It’s not a coincidence that Burden’s rise coincided with the rise of this Mizzou offense. Not having him — even for a team with balance — would be a brutal blow in a pivotal matchup.

5. What’s the quiet key for Tennessee? Avoid penalties

Does Josh Heupel have some legitimate gripes with some of the calls that went against Tennessee in road games? Yes. But if Heupel is at his postgame press conference trying to avoid a fine because of poor officiating, the Vols have problems. They’re again 1 of the 10 most-penalized teams in the country (in terms of yards/game) and in road games, they averaged 9 penalties.

(They’re also ranked in the bottom 10 in FBS in opposing penalty yards/game … which explains Heupel’s frustration.)

Without an explosive passing game like last year, the Vols have had a tougher time when they get behind the sticks. Here are Milton’s splits on 3rd-and-7 or longer:

  • 3rd-and-7-9 — 11-for-20, 83 yards, 4.2 yards/attempt, 1 TD pass, 106.4 QB rating
  • 3rd-and-10 or longer — 10-for-17, 147 yards, 8.6 yards/attempt, 0 TD passes, 1 INT, 119.7 QB rating

What’ll change Tennessee’s game plan is if the offensive line has pre-snap infractions. Obvious passing situations for a team that hasn’t consistently thrown the ball well would be an issue.

And a prediction … Mizzou 24, Tennessee 21

This could come back to bite me, especially if Burden doesn’t play. There’s no denying his impact, and how significant of a break that would be for the Vols if he’s unable to go.

But I believe in Mizzou. I’ve seen enough from this team to make me think that they didn’t get to 7-2 with down-to-the-wire losses against LSU and Georgia by accident. The Tigers will lean heavily on Cody Schrader to try and neutralize that dominant Tennessee pass rush. Keeping that group on its heels is pivotal.

As lopsided as this matchup has been so far in the Heupel era, it’s hard to have a ton of faith in Tennessee on the road. Quarter to quarter, half to half, the Vols are a bit too unpredictable. Maybe they can put together a complete game on the road and Mizzou will watch another prime opportunity slip away.

But I’ll say that the Tigers win at home in a ranked matchup for the first time since 2013 to keep those New Year’s 6 Bowl hopes alive.