Georgia vs. Tennessee is arguably the biggest matchup in the SEC for Week 12.

It’s the only top-20 matchup in the SEC this week and features the newly-minted No. 1 Bulldogs as they try to bolster their résumé for the College Football Playoff. Tennessee is hoping to avoid its 4th loss of the season and its 7th straight defeat to Georgia. 

Statistically, Georgia has the profile of an elite team — with a couple of notable blemishes. Tennessee enters this matchup with a less-than-sterling statistical profile, but has one of the best records ATS at home of any team in the country in 2023.

Let’s examine some betting trends, advanced stats and other useful info about these teams:

Georgia vs. Tennessee  Betting Lines

Spread: -10.5 (DraftKings)

Total: 59.5 points (DraftKings)

Check out these top sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s big SEC East showdown.

Betting trends to know for Georgia

  • Georgia is 3-6-1 against the spread this season
  • The over is 6-4 in Georgia games this year
  • Georgia is 1-2 against the spread on the road this season
  • Georgia has been favored in every game this season
    • The lowest spread Georgia has been favored by this season is 11.5 points (Ole Miss)
  • Georgia is 3-2 against the spread this season when favored by 14.5 points or less

Georgia has struggled overall against the spread this season, but it has been better (3-2) in contests where Vegas is expecting the game to be decided by 2 scores or less. The line currently stands at -10.5, which would make this the lowest point spread Georgia has been favored by this season. 

Betting trends to know for Tennessee

  • Tennessee is 6-4 against the spread this season
  • The over is 5-5 in Tennessee games this season
  • Tennessee is 5-1 against the spread at home this season
  • Tennessee is 0-1 against the spread as the underdog this season (Alabama)

Tennessee has been excellent against the spread at home this season. The Vols are 5-1 in those chances. In their 5 victories, they’ve beaten the number by an average of 9.9 points per game. The only game UT hasn’t covered at home this season? Its 30-13 win over Austin Peay back on Sept. 9. Only Kansas State (6) has more ATS wins at home than Tennessee does this season.

However, there’s also this to consider: Tennessee has been an underdog of 7+ points just 6 times in the Josh Heupel era. The Vols are 1-5 against the spread in those contests, including a 41-17 loss to Georgia in Knoxville back in 2021. Georgia handed Tennessee 2 of those 5 losses in the last couple of seasons.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index: 

  • Georgia strength of schedule: 77th
  • Tennessee strength of schedule: 26th

 

  • Georgia strength of record: 6th
  • Tennessee strength of record: 22nd

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

  • Georgia rushing offense success rate: 50% (89th percentile)
  • Tennessee rushing defense success rate: 36% (89th percentile)

Things look relatively even here, but it’s worth noting that Tennessee’s defense is coming off of its worst performance vs. the run all season in Week 11. The Vols gave up a season-worst 255 yards on 51 carries to a Missouri offense that has not been overly efficient on the ground this season. That’s not a great sign for UT as it prepares to face a ruthless Georgia offense.

  • Tennessee rushing offense success rate: 46% (68th percentile)
  • Georgia rushing defense success rate: 42% (55th percentile)

The fact that Georgia’s rush defense success rate is only in the 55th percentile nationally is maybe the surest sign that the Bulldogs’ 3-peat could be in jeopardy. That’s a pretty pedestrian number for a defense that’s typically elite in that area. For context, UGA’s defensive success rate in 2022 was at just 35%. In 2021, that figure was down to 33%.

Is Tennessee capable of taking advantage of Georgia in this matchup? That’s going to be the million dollar question for the Vols. This is a bit simplistic, but Tennessee is 0-3 this season when it fails to rush for at least 4 yards per carry. The Vols are 7-0 when they go over 4 yards per attempt.

Passing Success Rate

  • Georgia passing offense success rate: 54% (97th percentile)
  • Tennessee passing defense success rate: 40% (64th percentile)

There’s a big edge for Georgia here, especially with Brock Bowers back in the lineup. Prior to Tennessee giving up 255 rushing yards to Mizzou, it was actually the Vols’ passing defense which had been struggling. UT gave up a combined 592 passing yards on 60 attempts to Alabama and Kentucky at the end of October. Carson Beck is averaging 9.4 yards per attempt this season. If that continues this weekend, this could be a big differentiator for UGA.

  • Tennessee passing offense success rate: 47% (80th percentile)
  • Georgia pass defense success rate: 32% (99th percentile)

It’s tough to find a better unit in the country than Georgia’s pass defense. The Bulldogs haven’t played an elite schedule, but this is still an incredibly difficult unit to break down. There’s one part of this matchup I want to highlight — passing down success rate.

Passing downs are defined as 2nd and 7+ yards, 3rd and 5+ yards or 4th and 5+ yards. Georgia ranks in the 91st percentile nationally in passing down success rate defense. Offensively in the same category, Tennessee is in just the 46th percentile. The bottom line: the Vols need to make sure they stay on schedule or it could be a very long day for them.

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

  • Georgia offense havoc rate: 12% (92nd percentile)
  • Tennessee defense havoc rate: 19% (78th percentile)

Tennessee generates the majority of its havoc with tackles for loss. The Vols rank 2nd in the SEC with 82 tackles for loss on the season, behind only Texas A&M. Georgia, however, has been excellent at preventing tackles for loss. The Bulldogs have allowed just 39 TFL this season, which ranks 2nd in the SEC.

  • Tennessee offense havoc rate: 13% (84th percentile)
  • Georgia defense havoc rate: 17% (59th percentile)

Georgia’s havoc rate looks fairly pedestrian, but it’s actually up slightly from where it was a season ago (16%). Even without an elite havoc rate, the Bulldogs have proven they are more than capable of having one of the best defenses in the country.

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

  • Georgia points scored per opportunity: 4.95 (93rd percentile)
  • Tennessee points allowed per opportunity: 3.06 (86th percentile)

Georgia’s offense has rarely squandered a scoring opportunity this season. However, the Bulldogs have made a SEC-high 16 red zone field goals in 2023. On the other side, Tennessee has forced a higher-rate of red zone field goals (37.5%) than any other SEC team so far this season. That’s been a big key for the Vols’ defense when limiting points on scoring opportunities.

  • Tennessee points scored per opportunity: 3.54 (29th percentile)
  • Georgia points allowed per opportunity: 3.68 (52nd percentile)

Both teams would probably say they need to be better in this area. It’s especially disappointing for the Vols, who were much more efficient with their scoring chances a year ago. In 2022, they averaged an elite 4.81 points per opportunity. They will probably need to get back to that level — which would mean an outlier game by their 2023 standards — if they hope to pull off the upset this weekend.

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

  • Georgia offense: 6th
  • Georgia defense: 23rd
  • Georgia special teams: 84th 

 

  • Tennessee offense: 26th
  • Tennessee defense: 22nd
  • Tennessee special teams: 43rd

ESPN SP+ 

  • Georgia offense: 5th
  • Georgia defense: 5th
  • Georgia special teams: 8th 

 

  • Tennessee offense: 16th
  • Tennessee defense: 29th
  • Tennessee special teams: 38th 

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database.