O'Gara: 5 early thoughts on Tennessee-Creighton in the Sweet 16

When Creighton finally put away Oregon in double overtime on Saturday night/Sunday morning on the East Coast, I turned the page to the Sweet 16 matchup that awaited.

Creighton-Tennessee will feel more like a Final Four matchup than a Sweet 16 matchup. That, I believe.

We have a pair of teams that advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament last year, but fell short of clinching a Final Four berth for the first time in the history of their respective programs.

So what should we expect to see on Friday night in the Midwest Region semifinal?

Here are my 5 early thoughts on Tennessee-Creighton:

1. Tennessee needs its non-Dalton Knecht scorers to get going

I’m not breaking any news here. That’s been a well-documented issue, mainly from the 3-point line where the Vols (including Knecht) shot 29.8% since the calendar turned to March. Tennessee started off 1-for-21 from deep against Texas in the Round of 32, and fittingly, it was a Knecht 3 off an out-of-bounds play that got things rolling.

But yes, Santiago Vescovi and Josiah Jordan-James have to get going. They had 17 combined points on 7-for-19 shooting, only 3 of which were 3-pointers. Barnes has repeated the desire to get Vescovi’s confidence back. Both of those guys turn Tennessee into a darn-near unbeatable team if they can start taking advantage of the attention that Knecht draws.

Of course, it would help the cause of Knecht put on his cape and played like the All-American he’s been all year.

RELATED: Be sure to track the latest March Madness odds via SDS’s Tennessee sportsbooks as the Vols gear up for the Sweet 16 next week.

2. Both teams have a true veteran rim protectors who’ll change shots

Jonas Aidoo and Ryan Kalkbrenner might take turns blocking shots in the defensive end. Kalkbrenner is second in America with 3.1 blocks per game while Aidoo is at 1.9 blocks per contest. Both will make undersized point guards — something both things happen — think twice about trying to finish at the rim.

That’s significant because both teams can be a bit hot and cold from deep. Creighton is 6th in America with 10.7 made 3-pointers per game, but as we saw in regulation against Oregon, there aren’t any guarantees that the Blue Jays will dial it up from deep. The length of the Vols could keep Creighton in an offensive rut if some of those don’t fall early.

Speaking of those Creighton shooters …

3. Zakai Zeigler can’t let Steven Ashworth get air space

Creighton would’ve been at home if Ashworth didn’t get going in the second half and overtime. Period. Oregon didn’t close out on Ashworth in the second half and he made the Ducks pay. He hit 4 threes in the second half/overtime to fuel his team-high 21 points. Last season at Utah State, he was 4th in America with a 43.4% clip from long range. The senior guard is more than capable of taking advantage of clean looks.

Fortunately for Tennessee, Zeigler’s defense has been exceptional. The SEC Defensive Player of the Year has been ruthless on opposing guards. His presence — he missed the postseason last year with a torn ACL — could play a major part in whether Creighton gets things going in the half-court. As much as Baylor Scheierman is considered the knockdown shooter, Ashworth’s range is the X-factor for Creighton.

4. You think Tennessee plays slow? Creighton lives in the half-court game

Creighton ranks No. 227 in tempo, according to KenPom. Spend enough time watching the Blue Jays and you’ll see why. They’re experienced, patient and they have 4 true scorers. It’s rare to see a team have 3 guys average north of 17 points per game. In addition to Kalkbrenner (17.4), Scheierman (18.3) and Trey Alexander (17.7) are all capable of taking over a game.

Greg McDermott’s squad will turn down a quality look and make the extra pass to get an even better look. It’s usually hard to get one quality look against that Tennessee half-court defense, much less 2. That’s a strength-on-strength matchup that’ll feel every bit like a heavyweight fight. That’ll be the story of the night in Detroit.

5. It’s impossible to ignore Rick Barnes’ history

You know this, but yes, we have to mention it. As great as a coach as Barnes is, the March cloud looms. He’s trying to reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 2008. Since that run back when he was at Texas, Barnes only defeated 2 single-digit seeds in the NCAA Tournament. That was last year against Duke in the Round of 32 and this most recent victory against his former program on Saturday.

In 4 of 5 NCAA Tournament exits at Tennessee, Barnes’ squad was held to less than 70 points in regulation. In Barnes’ last 10 NCAA Tournament appearances at Texas, his team was sent home by failing to score 70 points in regulation.

If Tennessee is on the wrong side of a rock fight, that March cloud will be thunderous for Barnes and the Vols.