Tennessee vs. Creighton preview: Player prop bet picks

Tennessee (26-8) sits within reach of its second-ever Elite Eight appearance. Creighton stands in the way. The Volunteers battle the Bluejays in Detroit on Friday for a spot in the regional finals of the NCAA Tournament.

2 Tennessee vs. 3 Creighton | 10:09 p.m. | TBS/truTV | Detroit, Michigan

Spread: Tennessee -3.5 (via FanDuel)
Total: 145.5 (via FanDuel)

Saint Peter’s was simply no match. Tennessee imposed its will in an 84-49 first-round win over the 15-seed. Size was a major issue, and it rendered UT’s turnovers harmless. After a poor showing in the SEC Tournament, Dalton Knecht returned to form with 23 points in 29 minutes and the team around him rediscovered its shooting touch. UT shot 46% from 3 and recorded 19 assists on 27 made baskets.

Texas was unable to make Tennessee pay for another poor shooting day. Knecht went 1-for-8 from the 3-point line, as did Zakai Zeigler. But the Vols won 62-58 thanks in no small part to 11 first-half turnovers that helped them head into the locker room at the half with a 9-point lead. Texas had to play catch-up the entire second half and pray for foul shot misses in the final minute.

Tennessee didn’t have its A game against Texas, yet it won. The Vols find themselves in the Sweet 16 for a second consecutive season and a third time under coach Rick Barnes. They are seeking only their second all-time Elite Eight appearance and dreaming about their first-ever Final Four.

Creighton stands in the way.

The Midwest Region’s 3-seed, Creighton dispatched Akron with relative ease in the first round, 77-60, and then pulled away from Oregon in the second overtime period for an 86-73 win in the second round. The Jays (25-9) beat Alabama, UConn, and Marquette during the regular season, and they pose a fascinating matchup for the Vols.

Though Creighton is one of the tallest teams in the country this season, it’s a finesse group. The 3-pointer makes up 48.7% of their overall offensive diet, and they knock that shot down at a 36.6% clip. They rely on the 3 more than just about anyone, and the vast majority of the volume comes from guards Baylor Scheierman, Steven Ashworth, and Trey Alexander.

That trio combines to take 20.1 shots beyond the arc each game, and they make around 35% of them. Scheierman averages 18.3 points a game and also leads the team in rebounding. Alexander is second on the team with 17.7 points a game.

Creighton’s offense, though geared to run through the 3-point line, is just as adept inside. The Jays shoot 59.7% on 2s — the third-best mark in the country. Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-foot-1 center who averages 17.4 points a game, is a major reason why. He’s the clean-up crew on the inside.

Despite their size, Creighton is an average rebounding team and poor on the offensive glass.

Defensively, they run teams off the 3-point line and force them into bad 2s. Creighton has a top-25 defense, per KenPom, and that’s in spite of the fact the Jays don’t turn teams over. Kalkbrenner is averaging 3.1 blocks a game, and he does so without fouling. Opponents get only 12% of their points from the free throw line against Creighton — one of the lowest marks in the country — and only 25% of their points from the 3-point line.

No one in college basketball forces teams to get their points on 2s like Creighton. Opponents have to work deep into the clock and make tough jump shots. Because of it, the Jays have the 10th-best shot defense.

And that makes for an interesting proposition if you’re Barnes. Tennessee’s 3-point shooting has fallen off in recent weeks. When UT lost to Kentucky to close the regular season, they went 12-for-36 from beyond the 3-point line. When it crashed out of the SEC Tournament a game later, it shot 8-for-33 from beyond the arc.

Shots fell against Saint Peter’s, but the lid slammed shut again in the second round, when Tennessee shot 3-for-25.

This season, 37% of Knecht’s shots have come on close 2s, per BartTorvik. And he’s shooting 59% on those particular looks. Tennessee has a vested interest in going at Creighton and trying to muck the game up.

The Jays run a 6-man rotation. Steven Ashworth has played 74 of a possible 90 minutes through 2 NCAA games. Kalkbrenner and Scheierman have each played 88 of a possible 90 minutes. Alexander has played 89 minutes across the 2 games. Mason Miller and Francisco Farabello are the only other 2 players who have averaged more than 10 minutes a game this year.

With Jonas Aidoo, Josiah-Jordan James, and Knecht, Tennessee could try to use its size and physicality and hope a favorable whistle puts Creighton behind the 8-ball. Greg McDermott has trust in his starters, but leaning on a seldom-used reserve against the nation’s No. 3 defense surely isn’t on his to-do list for Friday.

Of course, Tennessee can find itself under some pressure to keep up if Creighton’s 3s fall. The Vols don’t exactly try to take the 3 away from teams and if Creighton’s shooters get hot, it becomes harder to play a ground-and-pound game on the other end.

Before getting to the props, here are some advanced metrics from KenPom to consider:

Opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency

Tennessee: 116.4 (30th)
Creighton: 120.4 (10th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency

Tennessee: 89.9 (3rd)
Creighton: 96.1 (23rd)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Tennessee: 69.4 possessions (78th)
Creighton: 66.9 possessions (227th)

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With that, here are 3 player props for the game:

Creighton G Baylor Scheierman over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (-108 via FanDuel)

Scheierman’s last 6 games:

20 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists vs. Seton Hall
26 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists vs. Marquette
18 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists vs. Villanova
16 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists vs. Providence
15 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists vs. Akron
18 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists vs. Oregon

Scheierman has played at least 38 minutes in 4 of the 6 outings. Creighton’s rotation is basically 5 starters and 1 man off the bench at this point, and the Jays are going to need their everything man to continue doing everything.

Tennessee G Dalton Knecht under 2.5 3-pointers (-105 via DraftKings)

Tennessee trying to break Creighton’s defense by launching from the 3-point line doesn’t feel like a winning strategy in this game, not with Creighton’s structure and certainly not with Tennessee’s recent shooting woes. Knecht has been spotty beyond the arc in March. He made 1-of-7 against Alabama, then hit a 2-game stretch where he made 11 of his 26 triples. Since, he has gone 7-for-25.

Tennessee G Josiah-Jordan James over 7.5 points (-110 via FanDuel)

This feels like a game where one of the non-stars will have to step up and produce 8-12 points for a positive result. James went scoreless in the first-round win over Saint Peter’s and he went scoreless in the SEC Tournament loss to Mississippi State; UT can’t afford for him to be passive on the offensive end. James took and made clutch shots for Tennessee in the win over Texas, and the Vols will need him again to get past Creighton.