Tennessee vs. North Carolina: Who has the edge for final No. 1 seed?

The top of the NCAA Tournament bracket is beginning to take shape. UConn, Purdue and Houston — in some order — appear to have a clear grasp on 3 of the 4 top seeds in this year’s tournament.

But what about the final spot on the top line?

Tennessee and North Carolina are widely-regarded as the top contenders for the final No. 1 seed. Both the Vols and Tar Heels earned the outright regular-season titles in their respective conferences, and are favored to cut down the nets this weekend.

Let’s break down where this matchup stands entering Friday:

What the bracketologists are saying

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is the certainly the most famous bracketologist, but there are many others who try to predict the selection committee as well. According to BracketMatrix — a site that tracks projections from nearly 100 bracketologists — Tennessee currently has the edge. The Vols are listed as a No. 1 seed in 57 of 96 brackets as of publication.

Tennessee’s average seed on BracketMatrix is 1.41 while Carolina is close behind at 1.59. That’s by no means a decisive margin, but it does give a strong indication of where the experts see this battle as of Thursday evening.

These résumés aren’t set-in-stone yet, but Tennessee is currently ranked No. 5 in the NET while Carolina is down a couple of spots at No. 7. However, the Tar Heels have 8 coveted Quad 1 wins — tied for the most in the country after the consensus top-3 (who are all into double-digits). Tennessee is just a step behind with 7 Quad 1 victories so far, although it has the potential to add to that tally this weekend (more on that later).

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What the computer models are saying

BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model also gives a decisive edge to Tennessee. That model is projecting the Vols have 55.9% chance to earn the final No. 1 seed.

BartTorvik’s adjusted efficiency ratings also prefer Tennessee’s quality to North Carolina’s. The Vols rank 6th nationally, per BartTorvik, while Carolina comes in at No. 8. Tennessee has also been the better team recently — it ranks No. 4 in the country per BartTorvik since Feb. 4 while the Tar Heels are No. 10 over that span.

Tennessee is 5th in the country this season, per KenPom. That model has the Tar Heels at No. 8. EvanMiya’s matchup predictor has Tennessee as roughly a 3-point favorite over UNC on a neutral court.

What about North Carolina’s head-to-head win?

The résumé-based bracketologists and the efficiency-based computer models both point toward Tennessee having a slight-but-decisive edge over UNC entering Friday’s slate. So why is this still a heated debate?

The Tar Heels have a head-to-head win over Tennessee from back in November. UNC defeated the Vols 100-92 in Chapel Hill thanks to big performances from Armando Bacot, RJ Davis and Harrison Ingram.

It’s unclear how much weight the committee will assign to UNC’s head-to-head win, but it surely will make this a tighter conversation. However, it’s also not necessarily going to be used as a deciding factor.

Vols fans may remember the 2021 NCAA Tournament when they ended up as a No. 5 seed despite having head-to-head wins over Arkansas and Kansas, who both earned No. 3 seeds. In 2019, North Carolina landed a No. 1 seed instead of Kentucky despite having a neutral-court loss to the Wildcats. If there’s a clear answer as to who has the better overall résumé, recent history suggests the committee will not over-inflate the impact of a head-to-head win.

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What’s still to-be-decided?

There’s still quite a bit of basketball left to be played before the bracket is officially unveiled on Sunday evening.

Tennessee has yet to play a game in the SEC Tournament. The Vols will face Mississippi State on Friday afternoon in a big-time quarterfinal matchup. They likely need a win to keep pace with Carolina for the final No. 1 seed. Mississippi State is squarely on the bubble and will be highly-motivated to pick up a win over the Vols for its résumé as well.

A win vs. Mississippi State would result in a matchup against Auburn or South Carolina on Saturday in the SEC semifinals. Either opponent would likely be in Quad 1 range if they make it to Saturday. A potential SEC Championship Game matchup could be against Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss or Texas A&M. The Vols already have wins over all 5 of those potential opponents so far this season.

North Carolina has already advanced to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament with a dominant win over Florida State on Thursday. That victory over the Noles didn’t meaningfully impact UNC’s résumé, but its next game vs. Pitt could. As of now UNC, would move to 9-3 in Quad 1 games this year with a win over the Panthers on Friday.

That win would also push UNC into the ACC title game on Saturday where it would presumably face Duke in another top-10 showdown. It’s worth noting that UNC could have a slight advantage over Tennessee in that the ACC’s championship game is on Saturday as opposed to Sunday. In recent years, we’ve seen the committee not necessarily take Sunday results into full-account with regards to seeding.

Tennessee is set to battle Mississippi State at 12 p.m. ET on Friday afternoon. Carolina will face Pitt at 7 p.m. ET on Friday night.