SEC Week 5 Predictions
The Week 5 SEC slate’s is rivalry heavy with two games in the Eastern Division that should establish midseason supremacy and a showdown in Texas pitting the Aggies and Razorbacks.
Week 4 Results
- Brad Crawford — 3-5 (against the spread); 6-2 (straight up)
- Christopher Smith — 1-7 (ATS); 6-2 (straight up)
Season totals
- Brad (@BCrawfordSDS) — 14-17 (against the spread); 27-4 (straight up)
- Christopher (@csmithSDS) — 12-19 (ATS); 27-4 (straight up)
Readers can make their Week 5 picks here.
RELATED: SEC Power Rankings
We’ll start with a game that’s a popular upset pick this week …
Tennessee at Georgia (-17)
Brad: I don’t think the Vols are quite ready to handle Georgia’s front seven on defense or the rushing prowess of Todd Gurley, but 17.5 points is way too many to be giving Tennessee in this matchup. Butch Jones’ signature win last season came against South Carolina and there’s a few media members thinking this matchup could be the start of a darkhorse Eastern Division title run. It would certainly wake the rest of us up who have already written Tennessee off as a team still in transition with too much inexperience. I’ll take the Vols to cover. Georgia 34, Tennessee 20
Christopher: We still don’t have much information on Georgia. They blew away Clemson in the fourth quarter, but haven’t played all that well other than that. (You can throw out the Troy game.) The Bulldogs still look vulnerable on defense. But Tennessee is at least a year away. This is the first SEC road trip for a huge chunk of the team. The defense is serviceable and the Vols have talented skill players. But I don’t trust QB Justin Worley and the UT offensive line isn’t good enough. Georgia 27, Tennessee 13.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-17)
Brad: As much as I want to believe in the Commodores and Derek Mason’s new regime, Vanderbilt simply doesn’t have the personnel right now to compete at a .500 level in the SEC. Ralph Webb’s the only threat on offense and Caleb Azubike is having to do too much defensively. Darrius Sims gave the Commodores a spark on special teams last week against South Carolina but now that a new weapon in the kicking game’s been revealed, I doubt Kentucky will give No. 6 many chances this week. Kentucky breaks a 17-game losing streak in conference play with a big home win. Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 17
Christopher: The Commodores have scored 34 points in consecutive games, but needed two kickoff returns for touchdowns to do so against a weak South Carolina defense. Vandy’s running game and defensive front are decent, while I still think Patrick Towles will throw more interceptions than touchdowns in SEC play. Kentucky has outperformed the spread in all three games and nearly beat Florida. They need this win to float legitimate hope of reaching a bowl game, but Vandy isn’t as bad as the first two weeks. Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 21.
Arkansas at Texas A&M (-9.5)
Brad: There’s no doubt Arkansas will score points on Texas A&M, but how is the secondary going to limit Kenny Hill and the Aggies’ passing attack? I’ve called for a shootout all week and I don’t see it being any different unless Texas A&M’s front seven manhandles the Razorback offensive line (won’t happen). This one could come down to Brandon Allen making a play or two at the end and we’ve yet to see him in a pressure-packed situation with the game on the line. The Aggies win, but Arkansas covers. Texas A&M 44, Arkansas 35
Christopher: This is a tremendous matchup between two teams with Top 5 scoring offenses and dominant offensive lines. Arkansas hasn’t won an SEC game in more than 700 days, but they’ve been one of the most dominant teams in college football with the exception of the second half against Auburn. QB Brandon Allen is healthy and efficient as well. Meanwhile, Kenny Hill has been sensational for A&M, but hasn’t faced much adversity or pressure (South Carolina’s defensive front did little to bother him in the season opener). Texas A&M’s defense has to prove it won’t be the ball-and-chain it was in 2013. The Aggies have an underrated running game and are more of a ball-control pass offense predicated on timing and short routes. I wonder if A&M may actually be the team sustaining long drives and keeping Arkansas off the field. Texas A&M 31, Arkansas 27.
Louisiana Tech at Auburn (-32.5)
Brad: Colleague Jon Cooper labeled the Tigers as the SEC’s most underrated team this week and based on the lack of buzz surrounding the defending league champs, he could be right. One only two teams in the SEC to have traveled to — and beaten — a ranked opponent this season, Auburn also has the blowout victory over Arkansas in its back pocket. The Razorbacks could be a West contender after this weekend. But it hasn’t been pretty enough for Gus Malzahn’s offense, hasn’t clicked for the public’s liking. Auburn should thrash Louisiana Tech this weekend and move to 4-0 before a date with LSU on Oct. 4. Auburn 49, Louisiana Tech 7.
Christopher: Louisiana Tech’s results have been weird. The Bulldogs crushed respected programs in Louisiana-Lafayette and North Texas, then fizzled last week in a loss to FCS school Northwestern State. Auburn gets this game in between a huge Thursday night win at Kansas State and a revenge matchup with LSU, so from a gambling standpoint, that’s an advantage to Louisiana Tech. But Gus Malzahn never takes his foot off the gas in these games, part of the reason Auburn has performed so well against the spread under his watch. I stay away from this game with real money, but for this column, I’ll take the Tigers. Auburn 41, Louisiana Tech 6.
Missouri at South Carolina (-6)
Brad: Can South Carolina’s secondary withstand a 300-yard outing from Maty Mauk? If the Gamecocks hold the Tigers to field goals, the answer’s yes. South Carolina’s been able to avoid catastrophe with a horrific defense by avoiding the big play (outside of the season opener). The Gamecocks have improved their tackling the last two games, but there’s lingering issues — specifically along the defensive line — that will need to be resolved. Dylan Thompson’s had a terrific start and I believe that continues this weekend. Not calling the upset, but I do think it’ll be another exciting finish in Columbia. South Carolina 38, Mizzou 35
Christopher: A home loss to Indiana rocked Missouri. The Tigers were 15-2 dating back to the start of last season entering the game, with losses in the SEC Championship and in overtime to the Gamecocks. Mizzou’s offensive line was a disaster, and the perpetually flawed defense wasn’t its typical disruptive self without Markus Golden (hamstring). Going on the road against the SEC East frontrunner seems like a tall task. But South Carolina’s defense and kick coverage units haven’t fared well, and with Marcus Murphy aiming for his sixth career kick or punt return for a touchdown, special teams may come into play. Mike Davis should get on track against a run defense that has allowed three 100-yard rushers in four games, and Maty Mauk should continue to produce touchdowns. Dylan Thompson won’t have a relief pitcher in this one, but it won’t matter. South Carolina 35, Missouri 31
New Mexico State at LSU (-43)
Brad: I don’t envy New Mexico State this week. The Aggies get to play in Baton Rouge after LSU had its house ransacked last weekend by Mississippi State. Expect to see more snaps from Brandon Harris as Les Miles tries to determine which player is the better option at quarterback for the Tigers. LSU 45, New Mexico State 7.
Christopher: OK, so LSU may not be one of the best teams in the SEC West. New Mexico State isn’t even the best team in New Mexico, we found out last week. (As an aside, they do have a terrific mascot/logo: a man with pretty obvious ethnicity, a cowboy hat, an admirable mustache and two guns.) The Tigers probably are angry, but they’ll be spending more time trying to hash out issues along the line of scrimmage and at quarterback than running up the score. LSU 45, New Mexico State 7.
Memphis at Ole Miss (-21)
Brad: Memphis has not only shown a pulse this season, but the Tigers nearly knocked off UCLA away from home in Week 2. Sophomore quarterback Paxton Lynch is tough to miss at 6-foot-7, 235 pounds and has played well in a balanced offense. He hasn’t seen a defense as feisty as the Rebels’ unit however, where decision-making becomes paramount. I’m sure there’s a few Ole Miss fans worried about their team looking ahead to Alabama, but Hugh Freeze isn’t going to let the Tigers catch the Rebels sleeping. Bo Wallace plays well and the defense comes up with another touchdown. Ole Miss 45, Memphis 20
Christopher: The Rebels get Alabama next week in the game they’ve waited for all year. Meanwhile, Memphis, an underrated defense last season, is full of sure tacklers, and Ole Miss has allowed a ton of tackles for loss. The Memphis offensive line won’t get overrun by the Ole Miss defensive front like most non-power conference teams. Memphis has been a gambling favorite among sharps this season, and Tigers fans won’t have to drive far to get to Oxford. Bo Wallace needs to make sure he takes care of the ball, or this one could stay very competitive very late. Ole Miss 31, Memphis 17