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Projecting the four CFB Playoff teams
With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, the top teams in the nation are beginning to make a push toward the College Football Playoff. At this point, there are at least six or seven squads good enough to play in January. The last four weeks will go along way in determining who will be there.
Here’s a projection of the College Football Playoff based on the results of the first two months and the remaining schedules for contenders.
THE TOP FOUR
1. Clemson — When it’s all said and done, the Tigers may be one of the only undefeated teams entering the Playoff. They will be tested this weekend against No. 17 Florida State, but the Seminoles beating Clemson in Death Valley seems unlikely. After FSU, Clemson faces Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina. If the Tigers beat FSU, they’ll likely play North Carolina, Pittsburgh or Duke in the conference title game. The Tigers’ stock is rising by the minute, and a win this weekend would be their second against a ranked opponent, only helping their cause with the committee.
2. LSU — With the top player in the nation on offense, and the No. 18 defense in the country, Les Miles has the tools to lead his team to the Playoff. If LSU beats Alabama on Saturday, the Tigers will make the Playoff. Even if they lose, the Tigers lose will have wins over No. 11 Florida, No. 24 Mississippi State, and opportunities to knock off No. 19 Ole Miss and No. 25 Texas A&M to close out the year. It’s impossible to overlook the Tigers tough schedule and its probable that they don’t lose all season.
3. Ohio State — This is where it gets tricky. The Buckeyes don’t have any impressive wins on their resume and the meat of their schedule comes in the last two weeks of the season with games against No. 6 Michigan State and No. 16 Michigan. With close calls against Northern Illinois and Indiana and a struggle into the third quarter with Maryland, Ohio State must win the Big Ten Championship. Much like last year, the Buckeyes are getting hot at the right time. If J.T. Barrett stays out of trouble, Ohio State can win out and make it to January for the second straight year.
4. Baylor — True freshman Jarrett Stidham has been thrust into the starting lineup. But inexperienced quarterbacks have thrived quickly in Art Briles’ system. After Thursday’s game against Kansas State, Baylor will face three straight ranked opponents (No. 14 Oklahoma, No. 12 Oklahoma State and No. 5 TCU.) The Bears could lose a game and still be chosen — as long as they earn at least a share of the Big 12 championship.
ON THE CUSP
TCU — The Horned Frogs looked vulnerable against the likes of Minnesota and Texas Tech. Ultimately, the Horned Frogs probably will lose one of its last four games (Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma and Baylor.) If three Big 12 teams tie with one conference loss, TCU is likely out.
Michigan State — The Spartans have grinded out last-minute wins all season, but they should have a struggle against No. 1 Ohio State on Nov. 21. The Spartans need to beat the Buckeyes to make the Playoff.
Alabama — The Week 3 loss to Ole Miss can be overcome if the Crimson Tide wins against LSU and Ole Miss drops a conference game. But stopping Leonard Fournette won’t be easy. If the Tide doesn’t make the SEC title game, it’s highly unlikely to make the Playoff.
LONGSHOTS
Memphis — The unbeaten Tigers have beaten Ole Miss, which won at Alabama. They’ll get a shot at Houston, which blasted Vanderbilt, and Temple, which nearly knocked off Notre Dame. If Memphis finishes as one of four or fewer unbeatens, the Tigers have a strong case.
Houston — The Cougars won at Louisville. They’ll get a chance to impress the selection committee in games against Memphis and Navy, which has lost only to Notre Dame.
Florida — The Gators are only two tough games — Florida State and the conference title game — away from the SEC title, which would make them a prime candidate for the Playoff. FSU hasn’t been impressive throughout the season. Knocking off LSU, Alabama or Ole Miss (for the second time) would be a tough task, but entirely possible.
Stanford — The Cardinal slipped past Washington State late Saturday night. Stanford’s only loss came in the season opener at Northwestern. Since then, the Cardinal has beaten Southern Cal, Arizona and UCLA. With victories against Notre Dame and Utah, Southern Cal or UCLA in the Pac-12 title game, Stanford should be one of the most attractive one-loss teams.
Notre Dame — Victories over Southern Cal and Stanford would make a strong case, considering the Irish’s only loss came down to a 2-point play in the final seconds at unbeaten Clemson.