Considering the 3-5 finish to close the season and the tumultuous offseason in College Station, many assume Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is heading into the 2016 season sitting on the hot seat. The fact that Kyle Field and the surrounding football facilities recently underwent upgrades that cost a reported $500 million also stress the level of commitment the university has to having a winning program on the field.

That all makes sense but perhaps those placing Sumlin squarely on the hot seat have forgotten who it was that helped elevate the program to what it has become today.

In Sumlin’s debut season, the Aggies won 11 games and in his four seasons has led A&M to a combined 36 wins at the school. In the previous four seasons before Sumlin arrived, A&M won 26 games – the Aggies were also in a weaker conference during that time.

According to Dave Bartoo of CFB Matrix, Sumlin is suffering from something he calls ‘first year jinx’ after starting his Aggie career on such a high note. Compared to Gus Malzahn, who also is suffering from a ‘first year jinx’ after a red hot start to his head coaching stint with Auburn, Bartoo says he would have given Sumlin an extension before giving Malzahn one – as the Tigers did recently.

“Sumlin should easily be in a better position (than Malzahn). You wanna talk about extending a guy, I’d do it with him before I would do it with Malzahn,” Bartoo said on the Sports Talk with Bo Mattingly radio show. “He started with a bang with (Johnny) Manziel but the thing is with A&M, their talent stratification has gotten better, it is a more talented team. Coaching wise they upgraded to an elite defensive coordinator in Chavis, so I think there’s a lot more promise there. When you look at his coach effect, it’s not even a half game a year, so A&M, in spite of people being down on it over Sumlin’s entire tenure it’s almost exactly where the talent and schedule would expect them to be.”

So according to Bartoo, while Sumlin has yet to exceed his expectations, he hasn’t failed to live up to them yet either. During his tenure at A&M, he’s also helped upgrade the overall talent level of the team. That fact suggests if Sumlin can maintain his current level of coaching success, the Aggies should be better on the field in the future.

The only question now is, will the powers that be at A&M allow Sumlin to stick around long enough to find out?