Florida’s Nov. 19, 2016 victory over LSU to secure a spot in the SEC Championship Game feels like forever ago. On that day, Gator Nation felt the high of being the best team in the SEC East, but the low of lagging behind other powerhouse programs was right around the corner. Following the win over LSU, Jim McElwain’s squad fell to FSU and was walloped by Alabama in Atlanta. The next season started with more of the same, as Michigan looked bigger, stronger, faster and better-coached.

Will a new coaching staff lead to better coaching on the practice fields and on Saturday? That’s what fans are hoping under Dan Mullen. Coming off a 4-7 season capped off by a fifth straight loss to Florida State, Florida has nowhere to go but up.

ESPN’s Football Power Index – the World Wide Leader’s “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward” based on simulations – says 2018 should be much different than last year. In fact, the FPI has underdogs only three times against Mississippi State (Sept. 29, 33.7 percent chance to win), Georgia (Oct. 27, 21.3) percent and Florida State (Nov. 24, 39.4). Don’t count out Mullen against his old team. He famously upset the Gators on his first trip back to The Swamp in 2010. Interestingly enough, the FPI’s overall projection for the season is 8.2 wins and 3.9 losses. Since teams don’t win or lose partial games, the metric is hinting at Florida falling in an upset somewhere along the way.

With the MSU game in Starkville, Georgia in Jacksonville and FSU in Tallahassee, the FPI is projecting a perfect home record. While falling to rivals UGA and Florida State (two of Florida’s Big 3) would sting, taking back The Swamp would be a big improvement in Year 1 under Mullen.

A 9-3 regular season with the potential to make it a 10-win season with the bowl game would widely be recognized as a successful start to the Mullen era.