Alabama is the No. 1 team in the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2018, and Clemson is right behind at No. 2.

However, the folks over at FiveThirtyEight think the Tigers actually have the best chance to win the national championship — better than the Crimson Tide, even.

As you can see in the article here, Clemson has a 32-percent chance to win the title, compared to Alabama’s 26-percent chance. Why, you ask, does Clemson have a better chance than a team that looks like an absolute juggernaut?

Well, that probably has something to do with the Tigers’ schedule. The ACC is having a down year, so the Tigers should have an easier time going undefeated and winning the conference. Alabama, meanwhile, has to play at LSU this weekend and has games against Mississippi State, Auburn and potentially the SEC East champion remaining before the Playoff.

Finally, Nick Saban has someone doubting his team, and he’ll probably make the most of it.