A third consecutive New Year’s 6 Bowl appearance for No. 7 Florida will see the Gators take on Big 12 champion and No. 6 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.

Another New Year’s 6 bowl invite is a sign of the improvement of Florida’s program under Dan Mullen, but for the first time in his tenure, there’s a sense that the team fell short of reaching its potential and ultimate goals. The Gators played well in the SEC Championship Game, pushing Alabama for four quarters, but a bad home loss to LSU dampened an excellent regular season and Florida arrives in Dallas having lost 2 straight games.

A Cotton Bowl victory would make Mullen the first head coach in the BCS or College Football Playoff era to win a New Year’s 6 bowl game in each of his first 3 seasons at a program, an accomplishment worth celebrating even if the Gators fell just short of their goal of winning an SEC championship last month.

To win, the Gators will need to overcome the absence of All-American tight end Kyle Pitts, who opted out of the bowl game. They’ll also need to find a way to motivate themselves to play in a bowl game that, while prestigious, isn’t where they hoped to be. Being disappointed in a Cotton Bowl berth is a sign of Florida’s progress under Mullen. It’s also a very legitimate question as they prepare for an outstanding Oklahoma team and program very accustomed to playing big bowl games in the national spotlight.

You could ask motivation questions about the Sooners as well given they are out of the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2016 season. But the Sooners have momentum and the joy of winning a conference title after starting 1-2 working in their favor and should be excited to be playing close to home at Jerry’s World.
Here are 3 matchups that will define the Cotton Bowl.

Can Todd Grantham’s embattled defense make Oklahoma one-dimensional?

While this isn’t the prolific Lincoln Riley offense we’ve seen under Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield or Jalen Hurts, it’s still a very efficient unit capable of scoring points in bunches. The Sooners scored 60 points or more twice in 2020 and added 40 points or more on 3 other occasions.

The idea that Oklahoma isn’t elite offensively is really just an overreaction to the fact that this offense, while very dangerous, isn’t quite as awesome as Riley’s prior offenses. For example, this Sooners offense still ranks 18th in yards per play, 6th in S&P+ offensive efficiency and 18th in total offense in 2020. Those numbers are terrific, but when you’ve ranked in the top 3 nationally in each of those categories for the past 3 seasons, those numbers feel a bit pedestrian.

The thing is, the Sooners are far from pedestrian on offense. In fact, they are quite good.

Redshirt freshman Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler hasn’t put up monster numbers, but most quarterbacks in America would take 2,784 yards passing at 9.5 yards per attempt with 25 touchdowns. He’s also played his best football lately, strafing top-15 opponents Oklahoma State and Iowa State for 573 yards at 10 yards per attempt with 5 touchdowns and 0 picks. Rattler is getting better and the Gators’ defense, which ranks 100th nationally in defending the pass and was just beat at home by an LSU true freshman making his first career start earlier this month, will have its hands full.

A potential silver lining for Florida?

Oklahoma hasn’t had great balance this season. The Sooners rank only 75th in rushing offense and 79th in rushing success rate. That’s almost a mirror image of a Florida offense that struggles to run the football, but it can be more problematic for Oklahoma because Rattler is not yet at the point in his development where he can win games on his own like Hurts, Murray or Mayfield.

In Oklahoma’s 2 losses, their run game has been anemic, averaging 3.5 yards or fewer per rush attempt. The Sooners have been better on the ground down the stretch, thanks largely to the return of senior running back Rhamondre Stevenson from suspension. In just 5 games, Stevenson has run for 479 yards and like Najee Harris in Atlanta, Stevenson gives the Sooners the threat of the run game that can help the Sooners sustain drives against a Florida defense that will likely elect to prevent big plays and make Rattler drive the length of the field. Stevenson’s not Najee Harris, but he’s a big and physical back that’s tough to tackle and he is good in the passing game.

He’s helped this Oklahoma offense become more dynamic, and Florida must slow Stevenson to have a chance to win the game.

How explosive is Florida without Kyle Pitts?

The decision of Pitts to opt-out will obviously impact the game. The Gators played 3.5 games without Pitts this season and while still a very good offense, they weren’t the ruthless machine we saw torch a good Alabama defense in Atlanta.

There’s a reason for that, of course. Pitts became the first tight end to finish in the top 10 in the Heisman voting since 1977 and last week became the first tight end to be named a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award.

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Pitts had 43 receptions on 53 targets in 2020, with 23 of those receptions generating “explosive” plays (16 yards or more gained). That’s the nation’s best explosive play average, and a big reason this Florida offense enters the Cotton Bowl ranked 3rd in S&P+ offensive efficiency, 1st in passing offense, 6th in yards gained per play and 3rd in offensive success rate.

Yes, the Gators will have Heisman finalist Kyle Trask and the magnificent playmaker Kadarius Toney, who is a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award honoring the most versatile player in college football. Toney is impossible to tackle, faster in pads than his 40 time suggests, and a brilliant route runner, as he demonstrated here with a little juke that left Alabama safety Malachi Moore in quicksand.

But Pitts is, quite frankly, one of the best college tight ends we’ve ever seen. It’s a significant loss in a game of this quality.

Who else in the Gators’ supporting cast will step up?

Senior Trevon Grimes, a leader in the locker room and NFL prospect playing for draft position, is a likely candidate — but bowl games are so often won by young players who seize the moment and set a tone for the future. Can one of Florida’s younger players do that, whether it be tight end Keon Zipperer stepping in for Pitts, enigmatic but immensely talented wideout Jacob Copeland, or promising true freshman Xzavier Henderson?

Florida will likely need more than 35 points to win. Can they get there without Pitts?

The “new OU” defense vs. Kyle Trask in his final game

Florida’s offense without Kyle Pitts isn’t the only unit with something to prove.

Much has been made of the improvements Oklahoma has made defensively in 2020. The Sooners lost 2 games early, but their defense steeled the team’s run to the Big 12 title late, limiting their final 4 opponents to just over 14 points a game. The Sooners rank 18th in S&P+ defense and an impressive 11th in pass efficiency defense entering the Cotton Bowl, numbers far better than their “entering the postseason average” the past 3 seasons. The Sooners also excel at getting to opposing quarterbacks, ranking 18th in sack percentage and 15th in havoc rate and pressures. All-Big 12 corner Tre Brown has opted out, but this appears to be a very capable unit.

Of course, plenty of outstanding defenses have faced Kyle Trask and left the field looking less than capable. Trask leads the nation in passing yards, touchdowns thrown and touchdowns accounted for, and he ranks 4th nationally in passing efficiency and 5th in yards per pass attempt. He’s also spread the wealth — 8 Gators have 15 or more receptions, the biggest number in the Power 5. Trask will have 7 of those players available Saturday and he’ll be by far the biggest and best test the Sooners’ new and improved defense has faced this season.

The last time the Sooners faced a quarterback remotely of Trask’s caliber was the Texas game when they stared down Sam Ehlinger. That game lasted 4 overtimes, but Ehlinger accounted for 400 yards of offense and 6 touchdowns before falling 53-45.

Facing Kyle Trask in his final college game is a tough ask, but a great litmus test to see just how far this Sooners defense has come.